The Matchstick Man

[JethroTull]

The unbridled fascination with Randy Johnson by Yankee fans is amusing, distorted, and downright hysterical. Read through any thread concerning the upcoming season, and to a man, every Yankee fan looks to Johnson as the cure for what ails them. I've even seen some Sox fans get caught up in the hype. But numbers don't lie, if you only bother to read them. And when you do, the hype gives way to reality.

Johnson spent nine and a half seasons in the AL. A pitchers' prime years are generally considered from his later 20's to his early 30's, which encompasses most of his time in the AL. During this span, Johnson had two seasons where his ERA came in under 3.00. Most of the rest were over 3.50. Also during that stretch, he never made 35 starts in any season, with 34 being his high mark in '93.

Jumping leagues in '98 did wonders for his image. In 5 of 6 NL seasons,(and now pitching past his prime years), Johnson finished with ERA's under 3.00, and made 35 starts in each of those seasons. The '03 season saw his injuries limit his starts to 18, and his ERA climb over 4.00. Now Johnson is back in the AL, and will turn 42 in September. He signed a two year extension on a contract that will pay him roughly $16 million per season guaranteed for the next 3 years.

All this for a man whose numbers are tainted with the ugly truth that he compiled these numbers pitching mostly in favorable weather conditions either indoors or in high heat regions. I love hearing Yankee fans tout Johnson and what he will bring to this season. For some $48 million, you should expect over 100 starts in the 3 year deal, 60 wins, and a sizzling era around 2.50. But this is where the rubber meets the road. If the man couldn't reach this level during his prime in the best conditions, to suggest he will now is just wishful thinking with no basis in reality. More likely, Johnson will finish the 3 years right around .500 in won/lost record, and will be lucky to have an ERA under 4.00 in any season.

To top it off, there is no way the man will make 100 starts over this span. He will turn 44 during the '07 season, if he is still playing. The years, the wind & cold, and his own track record, all paint a much different picture than Yankee fans suggest. In tying up so much money for an aging star, New York has taken a page from the Red Sox past, and we all know how that works out. Johnson made his mark mostly in the NL. He will go into the Hall of Fame one day. But to suggest he will dominate this season and make 3 post season series starts is hot air. Earlier, I offered a 17-13 season, with a 3.85 era as likely numbers. That's a heckuva season for a 42 year old hurler, but hardly the stuff of champions. But don't take my word for it. Look it up. As I said, the numbers don't lie. And Johnson's numbers suggest the Yanks got a pig in a poke, all things considered.

[yeszir]

For those curious, here are his career stats, courtesy of baseball-reference.com

Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP ERA *lgERA *ERA+
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
1988 24 MON NL 3 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 26.0 23 8 7 3 7 25 0 3 109 2.42 3.59 148
1989 25 MON NL 0 4 7 6 0 0 1 0 29.7 29 25 22 2 26 26 0 2 143 6.67 3.54 53
SEA AL 7 9 22 22 2 0 0 0 131.0 118 75 64 11 70 104 3 5 572 4.40 4.05 92
TOT 7 13 29 28 2 0 1 0 160.7 147 100 86 13 96 130 3 7 715 4.82 3.95 82
1990 26 SEA AL 14 11 33 33 5 2 0 0 219.7 174 103 89 26 120 194 5 4 944 3.65 3.96 108
1991 27 SEA AL 13 10 33 33 2 1 0 0 201.3 151 96 89 15 152 228 12 12 889 3.98 4.14 104
1992 28 SEA AL 12 14 31 31 6 2 0 0 210.3 154 104 88 13 144 241 18 13 922 3.77 3.99 106
1993 29 SEA AL 19 8 35 34 10 3 1 1 255.3 185 97 92 22 99 308 16 8 1043 3.24 4.38 135
1994 30 SEA AL 13 6 23 23 9 4 0 0 172.0 132 65 61 14 72 204 6 5 694 3.19 4.90 154
1995 31 SEA AL 18 2 30 30 6 3 0 0 214.3 159 65 59 12 65 294 6 5 866 2.48 4.86 196
1996 32 SEA AL 5 0 14 8 0 0 2 1 61.3 48 27 25 8 25 85 2 3 256 3.67 4.95 135
1997 33 SEA AL 20 4 30 29 5 2 0 0 213.0 147 60 54 20 77 291 10 4 850 2.28 4.53 198
1998 34 SEA AL 9 10 23 23 6 2 0 0 160.0 146 90 77 19 60 213 11 7 685 4.33 4.66 107
HOU NL 10 1 11 11 4 4 0 0 84.3 57 12 12 4 26 116 3 0 329 1.28 4.07 318
TOT 19 11 34 34 10 6 0 0 244.3 203 102 89 23 86 329 14 7 1014 3.28 4.45 136
1999 35 ARI NL 17 9 35 35 12 2 0 0 271.7 207 86 75 30 70 364 9 4 1079 2.48 4.43 178
2000 36 ARI NL 19 7 35 35 8 3 0 0 248.7 202 89 73 23 76 347 6 5 1001 2.64 4.68 177
2001 37 ARI NL 21 6 35 34 3 2 1 0 249.7 181 74 69 19 71 372 18 8 994 2.49 4.58 184
2002 38 ARI NL 24 5 35 35 8 4 0 0 260.0 197 78 67 26 71 334 13 3 1035 2.32 4.40 190
2003 39 ARI NL 6 8 18 18 1 1 0 0 114.0 125 61 54 16 27 125 8 1 489 4.26 4.67 110
2004 40 ARI NL 16 14 35 35 4 2 0 0 245.7 177 88 71 18 44 290 10 3 964 2.60 4.44 171
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
17 Yr WL% .658 246 128 489 479 92 37 5 2 3368.0 2612 1303 1148 301 1302 4161 156 95 13864 3.07 4.43 144
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
162 Game Avg 17 8 34 33 6 2 0 0 236.3 183 91 80 21 91 292 10 6 973 3.07 4.43 144
Career High 24 14 35 35 12 6 2 1 271.7 207 104 92 30 152 372 18 13 1079 2.28 4.95 198
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP ERA *lgERA *ERA+

And what you said is the absolute truth. Aside from '97, when Randy was downright dominant (and 34 years old), his AL statistics are good, but not great. As you said, combine this with his age, and the added pressure of pitching in New York, and it doesn't add up to a yankee savior. I'd still be scared taking fastballs from the guy, but Manny should be able to handle bim. :)

ETA until yankee fans "prove" this wrong: 1 hr 20 minutes. I'm waiting.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Very good thinking. I am agreeing with you completly. I think he'll become a normal pitcher in New York, not the man he was in the past.

[RedSoxRooter]

I don't know. I think he'll put up similar numbers to what Schilling did last year. Maybe 20-8. Something like that with a mid 3 era. The NY lineup may not have chemistry or be clutch, but they are good enough to score 5 or 6 in any game. He'll have great run support outside of his games against the Sox.

[Yanksin2010]

LOL, you guys trying to make RJ look bad. Keep it up. It's hilarious.

[Yanksin2010]

The unbridled fascination with Randy Johnson by Yankee fans is amusing, distorted, and downright hysterical. Read through any thread concerning the upcoming season, and to a man, every Yankee fan looks to Johnson as the cure for what ails them. I've even seen some Sox fans get caught up in the hype. But numbers don't lie, if you only bother to read them. And when you do, the hype gives way to reality.

Johnson spent nine and a half seasons in the AL. A pitchers' prime years are generally considered from his later 20's to his early 30's, which encompasses most of his time in the AL. During this span, Johnson had two seasons where his ERA came in under 3.00. Most of the rest were over 3.50. Also during that stretch, he never made 35 starts in any season, with 34 being his high mark in '93.

Jumping leagues in '98 did wonders for his image. In 5 of 6 NL seasons,(and now pitching past his prime years), Johnson finished with ERA's under 3.00, and made 35 starts in each of those seasons. The '03 season saw his injuries limit his starts to 18, and his ERA climb over 4.00. Now Johnson is back in the AL, and will turn 42 in September. He signed a two year extension on a contract that will pay him roughly $16 million per season guaranteed for the next 3 years.

All this for a man whose numbers are tainted with the ugly truth that he compiled these numbers pitching mostly in favorable weather conditions either indoors or in high heat regions. I love hearing Yankee fans tout Johnson and what he will bring to this season. For some $48 million, you should expect over 100 starts in the 3 year deal, 60 wins, and a sizzling era around 2.50. But this is where the rubber meets the road. If the man couldn't reach this level during his prime in the best conditions, to suggest he will now is just wishful thinking with no basis in reality. More likely, Johnson will finish the 3 years right around .500 in won/lost record, and will be lucky to have an ERA under 4.00 in any season.

To top it off, there is no way the man will make 100 starts over this span. He will turn 44 during the '07 season, if he is still playing. The years, the wind & cold, and his own track record, all paint a much different picture than Yankee fans suggest. In tying up so much money for an aging star, New York has taken a page from the Red Sox past, and we all know how that works out. Johnson made his mark mostly in the NL. He will go into the Hall of Fame one day. But to suggest he will dominate this season and make 3 post season series starts is hot air. Earlier, I offered a 17-13 season, with a 3.85 era as likely numbers. That's a heckuva season for a 42 year old hurler, but hardly the stuff of champions. But don't take my word for it. Look it up. As I said, the numbers don't lie. And Johnson's numbers suggest the Yanks got a pig in a poke, all things considered.
He's a lot better than anybody on your staff.

[yankeessuck013]

i'd take curt over him any day!

[yeszir]

LOL, you guys trying to make RJ look bad. Keep it up. It's hilarious.
I was off by 2 hours and 26 minutes. Great argument!

[Yanksin2010]

i'd take curt over him any day!
Ok, but RJ is better.

[Yanksin2010]

I was off by 2 hours and 26 minutes. Great argument!
He needs no arguement. He's the second best pitcher in the game today.

[yankeessuck013]

Ok, but RJ is better.

not according to this article

http://www.sportspage43.com/e_article000349367.cfm?x=b11,0,w

did anyone know that "randy" means aroused or turned on...LMAO

[yankeessuck013]

He needs no arguement. He's the second best pitcher in the game today.

who's first?

Curt...

[Yanksin2010]

who's first?

Curt...
LOL, sorry RJ is better and you know it.

[yankeessuck013]

great showing by dandy randy today in an 8-2 loss to atlanta

[ahhchon]

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john

[Yanksin2010]

great showing by dandy randy today in an 8-2 loss to atlanta
I seriously think you're retarded if you judge his season on a meaningless ST game.

[Yanksin2010]

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john
He'll probably be from 3.1 to 3.3 ERA this year. I doubt any higher.

[ahhchon]

doesn't really matter, it's my word/opinion against yours. i personally don't see johnson dominating the league. he'll K a lot of batters and get wins due to the lineup but i see a 3.4 era.. anything over is a gift imo.

john

[JethroTull]

So how is the Yankee Savior doing? He gets to hook up with Morris this weekend. And two more years at 16 mil per? Like I said, a pig in a poke. Silly indeed !

[Sox fan in Tex]

The Yankees have the dumbest people running their organization in the league. Read Moneyball, Steinbrenner... stop spending money on old wasted players. Randy Johnson sucks.

[Sizzlin22]

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john
True some people have longevity but here's a question what has he done so far this year to prove he will be dominant and has longevity?

Yanksin2010- Do you really believe RJ is better than any pitcher on the Sox? I beg to differ, Bronson Arroyo has him beat in record ERA and WHIP, and Matt Clement has him beat in record and ERA come up with numbers before you come up with an arguement kid.