Stros signings mean Pettitte flees Houston?

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/474458p-399104c.html

he said that if he had to decide today, he'd retire. I dont really buy that. The Yankees could really use a one or two yr bridge to the young pitchers maturing. A 2yr deal for Pettitte and a half yr deal for Clemens would be a good move over going after Meche and Lilly.

[MANNYHOF24]

Clemens would have zero reasons to return to NY at this point except maybe Pettitte, however if he pitches in 07 it will be for Boston or Houston.

[Gom]

Agreed. I think they both should retire and simply go away.

[jacksonianmarch]

Clemens would have zero reasons to return to NY at this point except maybe Pettitte, however if he pitches in 07 it will be for Boston or Houston.

where will he play in Boston and why would he want to come back to Boston? The sox have 5 starters right now. The yankees have 3, maybe and they have the 3 youngins in AAA who are a yr away. It is a good fit. The yankees want a 1 yr player and clemens only wants to play one yr. If the sox lost out on daisuke, I'd agree, but there is no spot for Roger. As for Houston, they seem to be pumping their cash into Lee, and I am not sure they have enough to give Clemens what he wants. Also, the signing of Williams could be a changing of the guard in Houston. I would not be surprised if both Pettitte and Clemens leave Houston.

[example1]

where will he play in Boston and why would he want to come back to Boston? The sox have 5 starters right now. The yankees have 3, maybe and they have the 3 youngins in AAA who are a yr away. It is a good fit. The yankees want a 1 yr player and clemens only wants to play one yr. If the sox lost out on daisuke, I'd agree, but there is no spot for Roger. As for Houston, they seem to be pumping their cash into Lee, and I am not sure they have enough to give Clemens what he wants. Also, the signing of Williams could be a changing of the guard in Houston. I would not be surprised if both Pettitte and Clemens leave Houston.

Where will he play? He'll start. Who will sit/move to the pen? Wakefield. Not only does it give us added RP help, but it gets rid of the need for Wake's personal catcher if he's used specifically in long relief. A solid backup who works well with all the pitchers would be ideal.

If the Sox approached Clemens and said 'this would be our rotation', Clemens would know he was going to start:

Clemens
Schilling
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Papelbon

Hey Schill, Wake and Roger, wanna win a WS?

Do I think its going to happen? No. I don't want it to. It would be too much work for the FO when they need a solid bullpen and some OF help. With Daisuke and Papelbon coming to the rotation this season (hopefully) I think there will be enough excitement and uncertainty already. No need to have a guy doing a random and highly-publicized fourth retirement tour. It should be Schills retirement tour if anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

wakefield in the pen is a completely horrible idea. If you dont have a catcher for him, then you essentially hand him the ball with games on the line and give him a catcher who is an automatic passed ball. Face it, the sox can maximize his value by starting him. If he is in the pen, he will be a total disaster.

[example1]

Face it, the sox can maximize CLEMENS'S value by starting him and his value is much, much higher than Wakefield's as a SP. Wakefield pitched spats of long relief and closer out of the pen for a few seasons and did an okay job of it. Nothing great. The sox don't need great, they need average and that's what he can give you. I don't advocate for it but if we pulled another ace caliber pitcher out of our ass then I have no problem with it.

[a700hitter]

wakefield in the pen is a completely horrible idea. If you dont have a catcher for him, then you essentially hand him the ball with games on the line and give him a catcher who is an automatic passed ball. Face it, the sox can maximize his value by starting him. If he is in the pen, he will be a total disaster.He's been in the pen before-- both long and short relief. It wasn't a problem.

[jacksonianmarch]

His last season in which he relieved significantly (30 games) and started (15 games) 2002 btw), he had an era out of the pen that was a full run higher than it was out of the rotation. Consider that he is now not as effective as he once was (he had a sub 3 era that yr) and consider that he will not have a catcher who can handle him (most likely), the signs dont point towards him being very effective out of the pen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Face it, the sox can maximize CLEMENS'S value by starting him and his value is much, much higher than Wakefield's as a SP. Wakefield pitched spats of long relief and closer out of the pen for a few seasons and did an okay job of it. Nothing great. The sox don't need great, they need average and that's what he can give you. I don't advocate for it but if we pulled another ace caliber pitcher out of our ass then I have no problem with it.

the point is, why throw the money into more sp when they would be much better off throwing that money into relief?

[example1]

the point is, why throw the money into more sp when they would be much better off throwing that money into relief?

I already said I'm not advocating for it. However, to play devil's advocate (and answer your question) I don't think the expert relief pitching is available through FA so that will be difficult. I think they're going to have to go "bullpen by committee", though they may yet find a premier full-time closer. Hopefully someone will hold down the end of the bullpen and then there will just be a bunch of stuff in the middle. Hopefully MDC and Hansen continue to develop.

The point isn't whether or not Wakefield would be a good pitcher in the bullpen. The point is that just because a team has 5 servicable pitchers does not mean it should shun the acquisition of a 6th, especially if that 6th is someone who many consider to be the greatest pitcher in history (I'm not one of those people, however).

I think that given the flavor of the FA market this year and the particular needs the sox have, their best chance to win next year is to hold onto Manny and bolster their SP as much as possible. Matsuzaka is a huge, HUGE step toward doing that. Schmidt or Clemens would be superfluous but would certainly improve their chances of winning THIS season.

[jacksonianmarch]

"bullpen by committee" is code for "My GM got tired and didnt finish my team".

[example1]

"bullpen by committee" is code for "My GM got tired and didnt finish my team".

No its not. Its the reality for all teams when they pretend that they have ANY clue how their long and middle relief team will play itself out. People will fall into roles but we don't know what they are quite yet. What the team lacks is a shut down reliever (the relief "ace") who comes in in situations with the most leverage late.

[jacksonianmarch]

No its not. Its the reality for all teams when they pretend that they have ANY clue how their long and middle relief team will play itself out. People will fall into roles but we don't know what they are quite yet. What the team lacks is a shut down reliever (the relief "ace") who comes in in situations with the most leverage late.

precisely something that a contending team needs. The relief ace, or closer, is a necessity in todays game.

[a700hitter]

precisely something that a contending team needs. The relief ace, or closer, is a necessity in todays game.Since 2000 the shut down closers on World Champions have come out of nowhere. 2002 - KRod, 2005 -Jenks,2006 - Wainright. The 2001 Arizona team had that little nutcase BK Kim. The 2003 Marlins hardly had a shutdown closer. The only Champ since 2000 with an established shutdown closer was the 2004 Red Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

Since 2000 the shut down closers on World Champions have come out of nowhere. 2002 - KRod, 2005 -Jenks,2006 - Wainright. The 2001 Arizona team had that little nutcase BK Kim. The 2003 Marlins hardly had a shutdown closer. The only Champ since 2000 with an established shutdown closer was the 2004 Red Sox.

KRod was not the closer in 2002. Percival was.
Jenks took over for Hermanson who was injured. Shit luck.
Ditto for Wainwright on coming in for injury purposes.

2003, the marlins had looper as closer and then they got Urbina who was lights out in FLA. They had 2 closers.

The playoffs are all about who is hot. But you really need to have a solid closer to be able to make it to the playoffs. That takes consistency and durability.

[ORS]

Ok, so they can sign Joe Borowski and you'll shut up? Somehow I doubt it.

[a700hitter]

KRod was not the closer in 2002. Percival was.
Jenks took over for Hermanson who was injured. Shit luck.
Ditto for Wainwright on coming in for injury purposes.

2003, the marlins had looper as closer and then they got Urbina who was lights out in FLA. They had 2 closers.

The playoffs are all about who is hot. But you really need to have a solid closer to be able to make it to the playoffs. That takes consistency and durability.I forgotabout Percival. Urbina was hardly lights out with a 6 ERA in the WS, and Looper... well ask Met fans about him. It might have been lousy luck that Isringhausen and Hermanson got injured, but the point is that the Sox don't need a shut down closer on April 1. They need a closer, but they don't need a Papelbon type closer from day 1. Recent history has proved that.

[jacksonianmarch]

I forgotabout Percival. Urbina was hardly lights out with a 6 ERA in the WS, and Looper... well ask Met fans about him. It might have been lousy luck that Isringhausen and Hermanson got injured, but the point is that the Sox don't need a shut down closer on April 1. They need a closer, but they don't need a Papelbon type closer from day 1. Recent history has proved that.

Urbina had a sub 2 era in the regular season for the marlins just to get them to the playoffs.

Your point still does not ring true. In order to get to the playoffs, you need a closer. The bullpen by committee does not work as it costs you games early on to find out what you have (trial by error). Typically you find out that none of your options work and you scramble for a big trade that rapes your farm system. This is a recipe for disaster.

There is one name I forgot about who had some very good yrs in TB as a closer. Danys Baez is certainly a guy I could see coming into Boston and being the closer they need, but unfortunately for the sox, his starting point is 7 mil a season and it looks like the sox willbe going after retreads like Joe Borowski instead.

There is nothing more deflating than having a solid hitting and starting pitching performance, then watching your closer blow the games. Bullpen by committee essentially guarantees that that problem will be a recurrent one unless they get lucky and find someone. They already got lucky last yr with Papelbon. How many more times do you expect them to go to the well?

[jacksonianmarch]

Ok, so they can sign Joe Borowski and you'll shut up? Somehow I doubt it.

Borowski is a recipe for disaster. He had a stellar 2002 season when he went over 90 innings out of the pen and had a sub 3 era for the cubbies. The following season, he threw 68 innings and was solid again for the cubbies, but those two workloads were career highs at a relatively older age than most first time closers and he developed shoulder trouble. He had surgery and this last season was his first full one as closer since 03. If you notice, he will turn 36 early in 2007 and his velocity has tailed off. His control has tailed off as well and he is getting hit more. His 1.38WHIP was his highest in a full season yet as well as his .700OPS against which for a reliever is poor but for a closer is putrid. All of this was in the NLE. You expect him to come in and be the closer the sox will turn the ball over to on a daily basis? Consider this, Papelbon was at 68.1IP with the final month of the season still to go. You could make the argument that had the sox been in contention and had Papelbon not been hurt, the sox closer may have reached 80-85 innings last yr. You want to heap 80-85 innings on a 36yr old pitcher coming off shoulder surgery who is showing signs of decline in the NL East? Yeah, he's your man :rolleyes: . Now, I still think he could be a good pickup as a middle guy, but if he is the sox closer, they will be in some serious trouble.

So no, if you get Borowski, I wont shut up. If you get Baez, I might. I know Baez walks a ton of batters, but prior to this season, he was a very solid closer in the ALE for the rays. He is still young, he has a big frame and he throws gas. Plus, the yankees cannot hit him at all. He is the final option on the market that would suffice as a closer.

[a700hitter]

Urbina had a sub 2 era in the regular season for the marlins just to get them to the playoffs. He's had streaks where he was very good, but he has not been a shut down closer for most of his career. He had a 4.19 ERA in 2003 before Florida acquired him and he had a 6 ERA in the WS.
Your point still does not ring true. In order to get to the playoffs, you need a closer. The bullpen by committee does not work as it costs you games early on to find out what you have (trial by error). Typically you find out that none of your options work and you scramble for a big trade that rapes your farm system. This is a recipe for disaster.I am not advocating closer by committee. My point is that the closer doesn't need to be Papelbon or Rivera quality. In the post season, ofeten times a guy steps up from nowhere, and those seem to be the teams that win.
There is one name I forgot about who had some very good yrs in TB as a closer. Danys Baez is certainly a guy I could see coming into Boston and being the closer they need, but unfortunately for the sox, his starting point is 7 mil a season and it looks like the sox willbe going after retreads like Joe Borowski instead. I see Borowski as an experienced reliable arm for the 7th or 8th, but not as the closer. I like Baez, but he needs to get off to a good start or he can self-destruct.

[Gom]

Ummm...I thought this thread was about Petitte leaving the Astros...sorry, I just had to throw that in there.