Daniel Bard...

[TGov]

This kid is 21, he throws a 97-98 4-seam consistently, a low 90s 2-seam, high 80s cutter, high 70s uncle charlie, and a circle-change with downward movement. He's a righty with a lot of potential... what do you guys think of this firearm?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think this kid is pegged as a future reliever. Throws ched, but it sounds like his secondary pitches lag well behind his heat.

[scaffolds]

I think this kid is pegged as a future reliever. Throws ched, but it sounds like his secondary pitches lag well behind his heat.

I do disagree, I believe that he is the only Sox pitching prospect who has the potential to be a #1 starter on a ML pitchig staff, that he isn't a finished product without a question.

[example1]

The question will be whether or not this guy has the mental makeup to be a #1 starter. He certainly has the stuff (secondary stuff mitigated by the overpowering nature of his Verlander-esque FB ) but I worry about injuries (obviously) and mental make-up. From what I saw at UNC (only in the CWS) he looked pretty cocky but not very refined. If he can calm down and ground himself, perhaps take 1-2mph off his FB in the name of control, then he could be very good.

The thing is that very few of us have any clue what he'll look like since he hasn't thrown a regular season pitch for the Sox franchise yet. I suspect he'll be a 3-4 ERA guy every season, but he will progress quickly through the system and be a 3-4 ERA guy in the majors once he gets comfortable as well. In other words, he won't have absolutely dominant MiLB seasons, but will be pretty darn good and look like he could handle the next level. My guess is that, for the most part, he'll be dominant but will make some really bad and hitable pitches no matter what level he is at. No matter how dominant he can be at times, professional hitters of all levels will mash a bad or hittable pitch.

He's got to have one of the best arms in any system though, so that's a great place to start.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes he does. He has a fantastic arm. But Beckett had that curve. Verlander has a SICK slurve. Bard has the heat. Thats about it. I have said before, that you need to be comfortable with 3 pitches to be a starter. They dont need to be plus, they dont even need to be good, but they need to be a change in speed, have some movement, and have control. I have been pondering this with guys like Sanchez on the yankees. He has the fastball, he has a hell of a curve, but his changeup hasnt developed yet. If the change develops, then he'll be a starter. With Bard, his breaking ball and changeup need to be refined or he will be meat the second or third time through a lineup.

[example1]

Yes he does. He has a fantastic arm. But Beckett had that curve. Verlander has a SICK slurve. Bard has the heat. Thats about it. I have said before, that you need to be comfortable with 3 pitches to be a starter. They dont need to be plus, they dont even need to be good, but they need to be a change in speed, have some movement, and have control. I have been pondering this with guys like Sanchez on the yankees. He has the fastball, he has a hell of a curve, but his changeup hasnt developed yet. If the change develops, then he'll be a starter. With Bard, his breaking ball and changeup need to be refined or he will be meat the second or third time through a lineup.

Yup, I pretty much agree. The difference of opinion I have with you is that I think those pitches can be developed by most of these guys. We saw Papelbon develop one of the league's nastiest splitters last year. Before that he was pretty much a 1 or 2 pitch guy. These guys are professional pitchers, so working on new pitches and refining location/utility of those pitches is their JOB. It should happen.

I don't think successful pitchers are necessarily cookie cutters. If a guy can top 100 mph like RJ in his prime or Verlander then they don't NEED 5 + pitches. Usually, someone who can do that is 6'5+, with extremely long arms, extremely long fingers. That's exactly what a pitcher would need to throw a nasty slider/slurve. That's what RJ had, that's what Verlander has. From what I've read Bard has refined his repetoir, breaking up one of his pitches into two distinct pitches (I believe his cutter has become a cutter and a slider). He used to be inconsistent with it and use it in different ways, and now he's being coached to treat his variances of this pitch as separate pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

But being coached and actually doing it is an entirely different thing. Not everyone can do it, even with the best of coaching. Not everyone can revamp an entire repertoire like Paps and Hughes have.

At the same time, when you have that kind of arm, you lean on it early. That is why the best guys IMO are the ones who develop their repertoire then get bigger/stronger and start to throw harder. At that point they have developed secondary pitches and have a mindset of a finesse pitcher, but the stuff of a power pitcher. Bard sounds like a great example of a kid with an amazing arm who never bothered to develop his stuff. And since he hasnt thrown one pitch, we have no idea how he will adapt to the coaching. But the change could be immediate who knows.

One example of immediate change is the kid we drafted in the 8th round, Dellin Betances. 6-8 skinny as a rail kid who came out of HS throwin upper 80s, low 90s with no breaking stuff and a couple weeks in, was working with Nardi Contreras. He developed one of the best curves in the system, has a changeup that he actually used and was throwing mid to upper 90s consistently. Put that to Bard. Imagine if the coaching staff for the sox could get the kid to throw a plus curve with location and a plus changeup while ironing out mechanics to get his heat into the triple digits. Some kids have IT. They are coachable, they learn fast and make themselves better. Some dont. Bard will get his chance this yr to see on which side of that fence he lies.

[example1]

But being coached and actually doing it is an entirely different thing. Not everyone can do it, even with the best of coaching. Not everyone can revamp an entire repertoire like Paps and Hughes have.

At the same time, when you have that kind of arm, you lean on it early. That is why the best guys IMO are the ones who develop their repertoire then get bigger/stronger and start to throw harder. At that point they have developed secondary pitches and have a mindset of a finesse pitcher, but the stuff of a power pitcher. Bard sounds like a great example of a kid with an amazing arm who never bothered to develop his stuff. And since he hasnt thrown one pitch, we have no idea how he will adapt to the coaching. But the change could be immediate who knows.

One example of immediate change is the kid we drafted in the 8th round, Dellin Betances. 6-8 skinny as a rail kid who came out of HS throwin upper 80s, low 90s with no breaking stuff and a couple weeks in, was working with Nardi Contreras. He developed one of the best curves in the system, has a changeup that he actually used and was throwing mid to upper 90s consistently. Put that to Bard. Imagine if the coaching staff for the sox could get the kid to throw a plus curve with location and a plus changeup while ironing out mechanics to get his heat into the triple digits. Some kids have IT. They are coachable, they learn fast and make themselves better. Some dont. Bard will get his chance this yr to see on which side of that fence he lies.

Which is exactly why I value Bard below both Buchholz and Bowden, and why many people in the know put Bowden ahead of Buchholz. It is also why people put so much potential on Jon Lester, who has consistently thrown harder throughout the years, while also having decent control of 3-4 very solid pitches. That's a high upside.

I'd be willing to bet that Bowden is ahead of where Lester was at this stage of his career, despite his weird motion/delivery. Bowden has multiple very good pitches and already throws as hard as (if not harder than) Lester does. Buchholz only started pitching like 4 years ago or something. He was also an OF. Given that, his stuff has come along very quickly and his lack of having spent time refining it means that that trajectory will probably continue going up with his extreme athleticism (he runs a 4.2-4.3 40, or so I've read).

[Peters34]

I think this kid is pegged as a future reliever. Throws ched, but it sounds like his secondary pitches lag well behind his heat.

I think so to

[jacksonianmarch]

Another thing that kinda sticks out for Bard is that he was actually pretty average in college against college competition. A kid with that kind of heat should not have an era in the mid 3's.

[scaffolds]

Bard is just a high maintenace pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Bard is just a high maintenace pitcher.What do you mean? I am not familiar with this evaluation for a pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

I believe that means he requires strict coaching and will fall out of line rather quickly if he is not "maintained." But if he is coached well and often, then he will be a good pitcher.

[AZBlue]

Jacksonianmarch, I suggest that you do some additional research on Bard. He has a two-seam and four-seam fastball, a curve, an excellent (but inconsistent) slider and a change (circle).

In the one game that you probably saw him pitch, his fastballs were so effective that the pitching coach called almost exclusively fastballs during the last five innings that Bard was on the mound. Scaffolds' assessment is shared by most baseball people.

[TGov]

Jacksonianmarch, I suggest that you do some additional research on Bard. He has a two-seam and four-seam fastball, a curve, an excellent (but inconsistent) slider and a change (circle).

In the one game that you probably saw him pitch, his fastballs were so effective that the pitching coach called almost exclusively fastballs during the last five innings that Bard was on the mound. Scaffolds' assessment is shared by most baseball people.

He has a slider? I heard cutter, o well... still a good pitch...

[jacksonianmarch]

An inconsistent slider is not excellent. It is both inconsistent in movement and in location. It has potential, but it has a long way to go.

[Ray10]

Sounds like the kid isn't too far away from being on the big league team from the stuff he has. Just have to wait and see how he uses his stuff this year.

[TheKilo]

Sounds like the kid isn't too far away from being on the big league team from the stuff he has. Just have to wait and see how he uses his stuff this year.

.................................................. ...............

[jacksonianmarch]

agreed Kilo. He is the furthest away because of how raw he is.

[ANiMAL]

this kid has to prove what hes got before i start making any assumptions about him

[rician blast]

Sounds like the kid isn't too far away from being on the big league team from the stuff he has.

Sounds a little like Hansen to me.

Memo to Sox...Don't rush this kid.

[Cityofchampions33]

Sounds a little like Hansen to me.

Memo to Sox...Don't rush this kid.

No he's not like Hansen, this guy isn't comin up anytime soon. He has the fastball, and a good slider (that needs to be harnessed) but other than that he is gunna need some serious refining to reach his full potential. Mostly he needs to work on his control.

[jacksonianmarch]

agreed CoC. He's a kid with average results against college competition with major league heat. He has a LOT of refining to do. But his kind of arm doesnt come round often.

[AZBlue]

Baseball America chat with Daniel Bard (non-premium):

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/262624.html

Featuring an effortless delivery to go with one of the best arms in the draft, Bard received a $1.55 million signing bonus after teaming with fellow first-round pick Andrew Miller to form the best one-two punch in college baseball. Unlike Hansen and Miller, Bard won't make his big league debut in the year he was drafted, but it shouldn't be long before he calls Fenway Park home.

***

BA: Have the Red Sox indicated whether they project you as a starter or as a reliever, and do you feel you're better suited for either role?

DB: It's come up a bit, and based on those conversations I'll be a starter to begin my career. I think there are certain things that point to each being a good role for me. I have three or four pitches, and can hold my velocity deep into games, so that points to being a starter. On the other hand, I know I could be effective attacking hitters with my best two pitches for one inning. I like starting, but could see myself succeeding either way.

BA: What do you consider your two best pitches?

DB: My fastball, always. Next to that, it's either my slider or changeup, depending on how I feel. I kind of go back and forth on that, day-to-day. I relied more on my slider at UNC, because a lot of college hitters struggle with a good breaking ball. Here it will be more important to have a good change. The fastball is still my number one.

BA: How would you describe your fastball, including velocity?

DB: Here in Fort Myers, I've been between 96 and 98 (mph). They said I hit 100 in my last outing, which was kind of nice to hear. I throw a two-seamer, too, which is about two or three miles an hour slower than my four-seamer. It has pretty good sink to it most of the time.

BA: What about your secondary pitches?

DB: I only threw one breaking ball in college, around 80-82 (mph), but I've split that into two pitches. Now I'm throwing a hard curve, around 78-79, and a cut fastball/slider around 86-89. I also throw a changeup that's usually about 88 and tails away from lefthanded hitters. When I have a good one, I'll get hitters to roll over on it and get easy outs.

[rician blast]

No he's not like Hansen, this guy isn't comin up anytime soon. He has the fastball, and a good slider (that needs to be harnessed) but other than that he is gunna need some serious refining to reach his full potential. Mostly he needs to work on his control.

Actually I think your post supports my point...Hansen, similar to Bard, has a great arm, and also required refinement in the minors. Hansen did not get that opportunity, and was rushed to the bigs and now his command is still not what it needs to be to be a force...thus he isn't on track to reach his own "full potential".

The major difference is not in the players, its in the approach the Sox are apparently willing to take.

[Mr Crunchy]

hansen is still too young to drink
i think the success that paps had made the front office think they could catch lightning in a bottle but did they even consider the boys age??

hansen maybe fine,work on hi s command,maybe stop tipping his pitches via his arm motions
or
his confidence maybe shattered and he will end up a stiff

he needed some seasoning
the club rushed him

[jacksonianmarch]

Therein lies the problem. They didnt catch lightning in the bottle with Paps. He was developed. Came through college, and went to short season in 03. In 04, he destroyed A+ ball for a full yr. In 05, he DOMINATED AA, DOMINATED in a 7 game stint in AAA and was needed in the majors. He was rushed, a little, but he was refined enough.

Hansen was drafted in 05, and threw 2 games in the GCL, 8 games in Portland and then zoomed directly to the bigs in 05. If Hansen got nearly an entire 2 seasons in the minors like Paps did, I have no doubt he would have turned that solid stuff and plus control into plus COMMAND. That is what develops last for the most part. Hansen never got it, Paps has it, Bard isnt even close to it. Bard would be even more messed up than Hansen if he came up right now.

[TheKilo]

Therein lies the problem. They didnt catch lightning in the bottle with Paps. He was developed. Came through college, and went to short season in 03. In 04, he destroyed A+ ball for a full yr. In 05, he DOMINATED AA, DOMINATED in a 7 game stint in AAA and was needed in the majors. He was rushed, a little, but he was refined enough.

Hansen was drafted in 05, and threw 2 games in the GCL, 8 games in Portland and then zoomed directly to the bigs in 05. If Hansen got nearly an entire 2 seasons in the minors like Paps did, I have no doubt he would have turned that solid stuff and plus control into plus COMMAND. That is what develops last for the most part. Hansen never got it, Paps has it, Bard isnt even close to it. Bard would be even more messed up than Hansen if he came up right now.

Hansen can't learn commad through work in the offseason?

I admit he sucked last year, but why is he written off so badly right now?

I expect big years out of him and MDC if they aren't traded for a closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hansen can't learn commad through work in the offseason?

I admit he sucked last year, but why is he written off so badly right now?

I expect big years out of him and MDC if they aren't traded for a closer.

Command is certainly helped by working in the offseason, but as with everything, you can be great in warmups, but you learn best in the game. Hansen needs serious TLC in the minors. I'd put him in AA for the yr and move him up to AAA for 08 and put him as the closer in 09. He lost his movement on his heater. He leaves it down the middle. His slider was great in his first visit to fenway in 05. It has since lost bite. He might be trying to locate it better, but the fact is that the bite is gone and the locations still sucks shows how green he still is. He has gone backwards since college, that is a bad thing.

[TheKilo]

Command is certainly helped by working in the offseason, but as with everything, you can be great in warmups, but you learn best in the game. Hansen needs serious TLC in the minors. I'd put him in AA for the yr and move him up to AAA for 08 and put him as the closer in 09. He lost his movement on his heater. He leaves it down the middle. His slider was great in his first visit to fenway in 05. It has since lost bite. He might be trying to locate it better, but the fact is that the bite is gone and the locations still sucks shows how green he still is. He has gone backwards since college, that is a bad thing.


He didn't throw the slider when he first got to Fenway. he was hesitant to put the stress on his arm.

AA? No. I say he'll start in AAA. Give the kid a chance to work out the kinks in his delivery.

[jacksonianmarch]

also, I still think he will be a solid major leaguer. But not any time soon. He reminds me of Scott Proctor when he came to NY in 03. He was very unrefined in 04 and struggled. He was still unrefined in 05. And in 06, he was refined, at 29! And his fastball and slider are just as good as Hansens in raw form, but it took him 8 yrs to refine it.

[kreinbihl34]

Just a tiny guess but I'll bet Hansen is going to be better than Proctor ever was.

[jacksonianmarch]

it is a tiny guess. No substance to it. Proctor right now is leagues better than Hansen and Hansen has the possibility of going belly up under pressure. I am just giving you an example of a guy who had all the stuff in the world who just didnt click until he had a ton of time under his belt.

[Cityofchampions33]

Actually I think your post supports my point...Hansen, similar to Bard, has a great arm, and also required refinement in the minors. Hansen did not get that opportunity, and was rushed to the bigs and now his command is still not what it needs to be to be a force...thus he isn't on track to reach his own "full potential".

The major difference is not in the players, its in the approach the Sox are apparently willing to take.

No, Hansen was always projected to be close to making the Show, he was voted the closest out of his draft class. Hansen was also better than Bard in college. He had better control and more refined pitches, but yes, he was rushed a bit.