Predicting a Rocket redux. [Archive] - Talksox - Red Sox Forum / Message Board

jacksonianmarch

01-31-2007, 08:07 AM

Where will the rocket end up? It is a very simple question that has been asked ad nauseum this week. I have seem multiple ESPN personalities come on and speculate on where the greatest pitcher of our generation will be going. Most of them said retirement/astros 2 months ago. Now that the stros let Pettitte walk and are seemingly cold to the idea of Rocket returning to the lone star state, most of the pundits are saying a yankee return is the most likely. The sox idea was a big one early on, especially after it was reported that the sox were second in the running last season for Rockets services. But if the recent Helton negotiations tell you anything, then the sox are not buying into adding any more payroll (for those who dont know, the sox were asking the rockies to eat the entirety of Heltons contract for 2007). They are right up against the luxury tax limit, and may be slightly over it. If that is the case, the 15 mil (prorated 22 mil contract for 4 months) the sox would have to spend would turn into 19 mil for a starting pitcher, when their rotation is loaded. The sox have recently been considered to be a team likely there to stir up the asking price rather than seriously try to get him.

Then there is always the fact that he could choose retirement, but when a merc looks out and sees a way to play for 4 months and make 15-20 mil, he wont pass that up. So my choice, as I have made bets previously with .700, is that the yankees will win the bidding.

Now what can we expect from the rocket. Last season, in 110IP, he had an era in the low 2's. In the AL east, you typically add a run to that. Do I think that Roger is a low 3's era pitcher at 45? No, he'll be a 3.5-4.0 ERA kinda guy who will give you 6 innings a night and hit the showers. He isnt the saviour that most people think he is, but he is a nice guy to trot out there every 5th day, and he surely makes the postseason rotation a whole lot more formidable.

So my answer is NY, lets see where the rest of you think he'll end up.

ORS

01-31-2007, 08:23 AM

But if the recent Helton negotiations tell you anything, then the sox are not buying into adding any more payroll (for those who dont know, the sox were asking the rockies to eat the entirety of Heltons contract for 2007).
To note, for those of you who have been told but don't listen because it interupts the fantasy, luxury tax considerations are determined by AAV values of contracts, not by actual yearly values. This means whatever chunk of Helton's salary the Sox would pay over the time they had him would be prorated to each year's LT determination. Now, back to your regularly scheduled trip to La-La land.