Daniel Bard

[jacksonianmarch]

any word on what his deal is? His line is amazingly bad.

5G 0-2 10.13ERA 13.1IP 21H 23R 15ER 22BB 9K

And consider that the sox took him before Joba Chamberlain who by all accounts is a MUCh better prospect and just had a solid start to his Tampa career after missing time with a hammy.

[Coco's Disciples]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8155&highlight=daniel+bard

[TheKilo]

I think the funniest part is that Jacko posted in the other thread.

[riverside sluggers]

like "Coco" said theres another thread for Daniel Bard, dont have to keep making threads. No shit? Players taken later in the draft can sometimes turn out better than 1st round pics? Gee thats never happened before

Anyways I heard on espn radio from baseball america columnist that bard was pitching while being hurt. He has since been put on the DL, the Sox are looking into bringing him up as a reliever instead

[ORS]

I think Bard is a project prospect. They are probably starting at square one and building a pitcher off the free-and-easy heat foundation.

What I find interesting, Jacko, is why you care? Isn't one of your tenets about prospects that when they first hit pro ball the results should be ignored as they learn what the system is teaching them?

[jacksonianmarch]

Hence why I wanted to know if there was something they are tinkering with. Undercover info ORS, that is what I want. Anyone have it?

[ksushi]

I know they are spending a lot of time making him throw secondary pitches. He's 21 with a 100mph arm, and they want to nurture that as best as they can cause anytime you have that its special.

With Bard, its a work on his overall game thing and builed around the tremendous raw talent he has. I don't expect anything from him till he's like 25ish. I still think maybe he comes up as a starter and becomes a reliever. I love his ceiling as a reliever.

[NateGrey]

.. Heard they're having him develop his change .

Not really worried .

[CrespoBlows]

.. Heard they're having him develop his change .

Not really worried .

Craig Hansen II.

[example1]

Craig Hansen II.

Yeah, except that Hansen was nearly unhittable during his first stints with the Sox farm system, whereas Bard has been unable to find the strike zone.

[ksushi]

Wow, already down on a guy who just started his minor league career.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Odd outing for Bard tonight for Single-A Greenville

5.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 6 walks, 4 Ks

[schillingouttheks]

Eh, needs to cut down on the walks...

What's killing him? Is he just having trouble with his command or is it that he's just pitching badly?

[Rdsxmbnt]

idk but I guess by the boxscore it looks like his stuff is decent if hes not getting hit but his control isnt very good.

btw, Greenville ended up throwing a 6 inning nohitter and the game was stopped due to rain

[jacksonianmarch]

He's improving. Albeit slowly.

[example1]

Wow, already down on a guy who just started his minor league career.

I'm not THAT down on him. I understood the pick as a hit-or-miss gamble on a guy who could hit 100mph but who had poor control. I watched the guy pitch against Oregon State in the WS finals last year and he had good but not anything close to MLB stuff.

His walk totals have only increased, which tells me that the sox have likely tried to retool his mechanics and that, so far at least, it isn't working. He has a lot of potential but he's not off to a very good start for a hall of fame career.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not THAT down on him. I understood the pick as a hit-or-miss gamble on a guy who could hit 100mph but who had poor control. I watched the guy pitch against Oregon State in the WS finals last year and he had good but not anything close to MLB stuff.

His walk totals have only increased, which tells me that the sox have likely tried to retool his mechanics and that, so far at least, it isn't working. He has a lot of potential but he's not off to a very good start for a hall of fame career.

Give him time. I think Bard could still be very good. If they retooled his mechanics, you need to give him a yr. Look at Alan Horne. He came out of college as a high risk, high reward guy. They retooled his mechanics and his walk totals soared to 1 every 2 innings in his first minor league season. This season, he has cut his walk totals in half and has seen a huge rise in his K rate. Bard is that kind of guy. If they fixed his mechanics this yr, next yr will be his biggest yr.

[Ray10]

Not surprised this is happening to the kid though, even watching him in the CWS last year you could see that he had nasty stuff for the college level. He didn't have nasty stuff at the major league level of baseball or even the minors for that matter. Seems like his command and control are off a bit but I mean we have to cut this kid some slack it's his first year he will get better and he will be an amazing pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not surprised this is happening to the kid though, even watching him in the CWS last year you could see that he had nasty stuff for the college level. He didn't have nasty stuff at the major league level of baseball or even the minors for that matter. Seems like his command and control are off a bit but I mean we have to cut this kid some slack it's his first year he will get better and he will be an amazing pitcher.

The one thing to consider is that if he is lagging behind in secondary stuff, they may help him out by forcing a 2 seamer on him. That is what they did with Horne. Horne became a sinkerballer in his yr in High A in 2006 and it may have been the only reason he survived. This yr, his secondary stuff has re-arrived with his new motion and yet he still has that sinker. The sinker is a wondeful pitch. ANd all it is, is a fastball with a different grip.

[Fire_Theo]

any word on what his deal is? His line is amazingly bad.

5G 0-2 10.13ERA 13.1IP 21H 23R 15ER 22BB 9K

And consider that the sox took him before Joba Chamberlain who by all accounts is a MUCh better prospect and just had a solid start to his Tampa career after missing time with a hammy.

He's another Theo BUST

[jacksonianmarch]

surprising that you would consider a player in his first full minor league season a bust. Actually, it isnt surprising. You're an idiot. Next yr is his make or break season.

[example1]

Give him time. I think Bard could still be very good. If they retooled his mechanics, you need to give him a yr. Look at Alan Horne. He came out of college as a high risk, high reward guy. They retooled his mechanics and his walk totals soared to 1 every 2 innings in his first minor league season. This season, he has cut his walk totals in half and has seen a huge rise in his K rate. Bard is that kind of guy. If they fixed his mechanics this yr, next yr will be his biggest yr.

Of course I'm not writing off a guy who can throw that hard, that naturally. As long as he's hitting 99 I'm keeping my eyes on him. Sandy Koufax was notoriously wild for the first few years of his career, then he found it.

[MANNYHOF24]

Of course I'm not writing off a guy who can throw that hard, that naturally. As long as he's hitting 99 I'm keeping my eyes on him. Sandy Koufax was notoriously wild for the first few years of his career, then he found it.

I was never that high on this pick for a certain reason. His K rates in college were not that of a dominant pitcher. One would think with a 99 MPH fastball, he would be able to pile up the K's, especially against college opponents. That being said if he can discover comand and work on his secondary pitches he can probably be a solid big leauge pitcher one day.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was never that high on this pick for a certain reason. His K rates in college were not that of a dominant pitcher. One would think with a 99 MPH fastball, he would be able to pile up the K's, especially against college opponents. That being said if he can discover comand and work on his secondary pitches he can probably be a solid big leauge pitcher one day.

Bard didnt have one off speed pitch that was developed. All of his off speed stuff was a minus. His heat was his only plus pitch and the college kids knew it. Hence, he didnt K a lot of guys. This was a total projection pick.

The interesting thing is that Bard keeps getting compared to Brackman and I think they are missing comparisons that can be made and making some that are flat out wrong.

A: Both have command issues: This is a comparison that is correct. Brackman walked 34 in 78IP this season.

B: Both have undeveloped secondary stuff: This is not a strong comparison. Brackman also sports a plus curveball right now.

C: Both have endurance issues: Once again, not correct. Bard has thrown near or above 100IP for 3 straight seasons. Brackman on the other hand was splitting his time with basketball, missed his sophomore season due to a hip injury from basketball, and maxed out at 78IP this season.

So overall. Both lack great command. Brackman has the better secondary arsenal and Bard is more durable and has been stretched out longer.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Tonight: 5 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

would prefer to see some K's but 0 BBs is encouraging

[Rdsxmbnt]

About time for a bump here, I think we have something here.

Another scoreless 2.2 with 3 K no BB

14.1 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 19 K on the season

[ORS]

Nothing left to prove there. He needs to be promoted. Whether it be to Lancaster and the challenge of hitter friendly environment or to Portland and the challenge of more polished hitters, he needs to be moved. My vote is to Portland.

[BSN07]

So is he just a RP now, or are they still planning on him being a SP?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Send him to Portland. Lancaster has the ability to wreck a pitcher's confidence.

[SCM33]

Bring him up! lol, just kidding, although I bet he still puts up better numbers than Timlin right now.....

[CrespoBlows]

Two more scoreless, with two more strikeouts.

He's done with the SAL. Time to go to Lancaster.

[BSN07]

I know he has a 100MPH fastball, how are his secondary pitches? Does he have another pitch thats good enough to compliment his FB?

So is he going to be a reliever for godd, or is there a chance he starts again?

[TheKilo]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it (especially with the results of him starting v. relieving)

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it (especially with the results of him starting v. relieving)

Agreed and don't send him to Lancaster...send him to Portland

[jacksonianmarch]

you dont rush this kid. Bard has a million dollar arm with kinda questionable secondary stuff. His control was his main problem though. Send him to Lancaster, have him work on his off speed stuff and then move him to Portland to start next yr

[Jayhawk Bill]

you dont rush this kid. Bard has a million dollar arm with kinda questionable secondary stuff. His control was his main problem though. Send him to Lancaster, have him work on his off speed stuff and then move him to Portland to start next yr


Never trust a Yankees fan.

Pitchers post higher ERAs pitching at high-A Lancaster than they do at AA Portland because of extraordinary park factors. Sending Bard to Portland might be merciful...Lancaster is where we should groom our ground ball inducing pitchers.

[a700hitter]

Never trust a Yankees fan.

Pitchers post higher ERAs pitching at high-A Lancaster than they do at AA Portland because of extraordinary park factors. Sending Bard to Portland might be merciful...Lancaster is where we should groom our ground ball inducing pitchers.What was Jackson's prediction for Hughes and Kennedy this year? I know that he did not predict that they would be in the minors by the first week of May.

[Taliesin]

Jackson is notoriously wrong w/ his predictions. If he picked a stock to tank, I'd buy into that company immediately. I only wish I'd saved the reams of blather over the years, just to be able to quote them back. It's actually kind of endearing in an annoying way. A constant if you will. Subtle jabs that seem like they are being complimentary and are always biased w/ a twist. A mea culpa w/ a knife in your back. Conciliatory while being condescending and not quite able to pull it off. Like as much as I trust my neighbor who comes in southern drawl sheep's clothing and offers help when I know the self-serving motivation.

[Mr Crunchy]

he was the man who predicted a 30 win season for johnson,25 for pavano and 18 for jarret wright circa 2005.
i forgive everyone
i forget little
how is the lovely jamie these days?

[CrespoBlows]

After surrendering his first two runs of the season, Bard follows up with five K's in two innings.

That gives him a 42/4 K/BB ratio.

Where the fuck did this come from?

[ORS]

Dunno, but I like it. I'm getting the sense that the longevity of his stay in S.C. has more to do with mental development than physical. Perhaps they want to really boost his confidence before moving him up. That's all I can come up with at this point.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Daniel Bard is heading to Portland.....

Good choice to keep him away from Lancaster. If he continues this crazy stretch I don't think it's out of the question he could contribute at the end of the season. I'm getting ahead of myself but I know it's been done before. Between Masterson, Bowden, Johnson, Richardson, and now Bard...Portland is absolutly stacked with excellent potential.

[Rdsxmbnt]

not a bad debut: 1.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

[ksushi]

I hope they keep him in the bullpen, i think he has a special arm. thought it since they drafted him. he could be joba.

[rician blast]

i think he has a special arm.

does it ride the short bus to games?

[ksushi]

does it ride the short bus to games?

Yeah, and it gets stickers for good behavior.

[Boris]

whoohoooo

[example1]

So we've had the chance to see him pitch a few times now. I've got to say, wow.

It looks like there's a lot more movement on his pitches than I remember when he was with UNC, and that he is really attacking the zone low with 98+ heat and a servicable slider.

Bard looks like the pitcher that Craig Hansen was supposed to be. IF he is able to pitch in big league situations effectively, what does that change for this team?

Personally, I think it means that a deal involving someone like Delcarmen or Masterson (or Bard himself, I suppose) would be much more do-able. He's certainly not hurting his prospects to be traded or get someone else traded.

[a700hitter]

So we've had the chance to see him pitch a few times now. I've got to say, wow.

It looks like there's a lot more movement on his pitches than I remember when he was with UNC, and that he is really attacking the zone low with 98+ heat and a servicable slider.

Bard looks like the pitcher that Craig Hansen was supposed to be. IF he is able to pitch in big league situations effectively, what does that change for this team?

Personally, I think it means that a deal involving someone like Delcarmen or Masterson (or Bard himself, I suppose) would be much more do-able. He's certainly not hurting his prospects to be traded or get someone else traded.Our bullpen is likely to get a lot of use because the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation are not very reliable and Dice K has trouble going deep into games. The pen needs as much depth as possible, because some of the guys out there are likely to break down. Bard and Tazawa can be optioned back and forth to the minors and they will provide very valuable depth. IMO, none of the relievers should get traded. The bullpen will be the strength of this team. It will need some fresh reinforcements along the way.

[BoSox21]

They'll be weary of rushing along any reliever after what happened with Hansen. I wouldn't expect to see Bard until September at the earliest

[Dojji]

Agreed, and I'll be dumbfounded if we see Tazawa before next July.

But you never know. Bard is 2 injuries away from an absolute necessity.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'd like to see the Red Sox hold off on Daniel Bard until the final push (end August into September). That way teams won't have a read on him and he should, if all goes well, be on a streak and can ride it through to the majors. He has a completely different attitude than what Craig Hansen had. Hansen had the, deer in headlights, look on a regular basis and Bard has much more confidence and a cockiness that borders Josh Beckett.

I wouldn't guarantee a trade since we may only count on Saito for this season alone. Injuries occur, players struggle, it will be an interesting season because the Red Sox will quickly pull the trigger if a player needs a trip to the DL.

[BoSox21]

What would be ideal is if he could be our David Price for the post-season

[jacksonianmarch]

He cant be. David Price is 10X the prospect Bard is

[TheKilo]

Right, because Price is a starter instead of a reliever.

Why do you need to be such a smarmy cunt all the time? Fuck I feel sorry for your patients.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, because Price has better command of a better arsenal

[Dojji]

Better command I can believe -- by default if nothing else. Bard's command is ridiculously bad. Not sold on the better arsenal. That question is pretty role-specific, and Bard's arsenal is pretty much tailor-made for relief pitching.

[TheKilo]

No one said he was going to be David Price.

[BoSox21]

He cant be. David Price is 10X the prospect Bard is

First of all, it all hinges on the season he's gonna have. And I'm talking about the role he would play for the team, I'm not comparing him to David Price, you quack

[TheKilo]

lol quack

excellent word choice

[jacksonianmarch]

why so personal these days? Mommy ground you?

[TheKilo]

That's the best you could come up with?

[example1]

If Bard continues to dominate in the minor leagues for a few months I think they will bring him up, maybe by July if not sooner. You can't have too many good arms in the pen, and if Bard can eat lower leverage innings that might keep Masterson, Saito, Okijima and Ramirez from being overused then they should use him. All he really needs to do is put the ball over the plate consistently and avoid walking guys. If he can do that he can have a spot on this team.

I'm not sure what changes he made to suddenly find control last year. Perhaps it was getting used to just pitching from the stretch, or only appearing in relief situations, or changing his arm slot or something else. I'm not totally sold that he's a changed pitcher, but if the Sox FO is we should expect to see him this year.

[diony]

If Bard continues to dominate in the minor leagues for a few months I think they will bring him up, maybe by July if not sooner. You can't have too many good arms in the pen, and if Bard can eat lower leverage innings that might keep Masterson, Saito, Okijima and Ramirez from being overused then they should use him. All he really needs to do is put the ball over the plate consistently and avoid walking guys. If he can do that he can have a spot on this team.

I'm not sure what changes he made to suddenly find control last year. Perhaps it was getting used to just pitching from the stretch, or only appearing in relief situations, or changing his arm slot or something else. I'm not totally sold that he's a changed pitcher, but if the Sox FO is we should expect to see him this year.

4.7 BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA, control.

[Dojji]

Gotta agree with Diony here, Bard's upside seems to be as a Juan Cruz type -- ungodly stuff, but a lot of walks -- I mean a LOT of WALKS -- mixed in for good measure. He might be almost as good as David Aardsma unless he takes another step forward

[Dojji]

lol quack

excellent word choice

http://thevirtualvine.com/123/dsplys/quack.JPG

[BoSox21]

Look, no matter how you look at it, the guy made incredible strides in his development in 2008. Let's see how his 2009 turns out cause he's already off to a hell of a start

[example1]

4.7 BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA, control.

No.

year| Level | IP | K | BB | K/BB |
2007 | A | 61.2 | 38 | 56 | 0.68 |
2007 | A+ | 13.1 | 9 | 22 | 0.41 |
2008 | A | 28 | 43 | 4 | 10.75 |
2008 | AA | 49.2 | 64 | 26 | 2.46 |

I'm not saying Bard is a control pitcher by any stretch, but to go from consistently more BBs than K's to consistently more K's than BB's is a big step in the right direction.

[Dojji]

Bard has definitely come a long way, but he also has a long way to go yet, and he's running out of time.

I don't think that we would be as excited about Bard a month into his MLB tenure as we are now if we actually brought him up in midseason this year.

[BoSox21]

Is there not reason for optimism considering he turned a corner in a huge way last season? I mean, the guy was a COMPLETELY different pitcher and if he keeps it up, he can be in the majors by the time he's 25

[ORS]

Running out of time? I think you'd need a little Special Relativity to sell that one.

[Dojji]

Running out of time? I think you'd need a little Special Relativity to sell that one.

Really? When he's going into his age 24 season with Aardsma type command? And might still start the year in Portland because of it?

Bard has more than enough talent to pull it off, but you can't deny his window is getting smaller can you?

[Dojji]

Is there not reason for optimism considering he turned a corner in a huge way last season? I mean, the guy was a COMPLETELY different pitcher and if he keeps it up, he can be in the majors by the time he's 25

Sure, I mean, he's an actual pitcher now. Even there though, just because he's come a long way doesn't mean squat if he's still short of where he'd need to be.

If we have an injury in Boston I want Hunter Jones on that bus right now, and probably throughout this year. Not Bard. The same arguments you're using to defend Bard now could apply to Aardsma and you know it.

[BoSox21]

I don't want Bard in Boston either and I haven't been saying that. All I've said is if he continues to make massive strides in his development, he could be a September call-up at the earliest. But it's too early to keep invoking the name David Aardsma into the conversation about him.

I'll admit Bard's control is around Aardsma's right now but Bard is showing improvement with his control, something Aardsma never showed. If Bard's control doesn't improve this season, if he doesn't continue developing, then you might have an argument.

[ORS]

Really? When he's going into his age 24 season with Aardsma type command? And might still start the year in Portland because of it?

Bard has more than enough talent to pull it off, but you can't deny his window is getting smaller can you?
What does 24 have to do with anything? He was drafted in '06, so he's protected for 3 more years under the new rules, and if he continues to show progress, he'll easily get a 40 man spot given his natural talent after the 3 years are up. He's easily got 4 or 5 years to get his shit together, not that I think it's going to take that long. So, like I said, you are going to have to make some time transforms using the equations of special relativity to turn the amount of time he has into a short enough period to say that his "time is running out".

[Dojji]

You're conveniently ignoring the fact that we dismiss Aardsma types as Aardsma types after age 26 or so. He doesn't have 6 or 7 years. He has maybe three. If he's age 26 and still in the minors he's probably staying there other than a couple cameos.

Don't think that happens to guys who can throw as hard as Bard? Two words: Travis Hughes.

See also: Fernando Cabrera.

[CrespoBlows]

None of those guys throw as hard as Bard.

[Dojji]

They're not that far short of him though, Hughes hits 96 regularly and Cabrera can get into the high 90's as well. And we know Aardsma himself hits 97. All three of them can overpower big league hitters -- when they can hit the strike zone that is. It'll be the same way with Bard unless he can get his BB/9 south of 3.

[CrespoBlows]

They're not that far short of him though, Hughes hits 96 regularly and Cabrera can get into the high 90's as well. Both of them can overpower big league hitters -- when they can hit the strike zone that is. It'll be the same way with Bard unless he can get his BB/9 south of 3.

Worthless.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'd say a better comparison for Daniel Bard is Joba Chamberlain, Bobby Jenks, Joel Zumaya.

High velocity fastball that could touch 100 and a breaking ball (call it a curve or slider) but not much else. Durability and consistency become the biggest questions with these guys. Luckily for Bard he throws with an effortless motion which leads me to believe there isn't as much strain. His breaking ball has come a long ways but is probably only good for an inning or so. He was deffinitly built for the bullpen and should be a hell of a setup man for the Red Sox when his time comes. Stay healthy and be around the plate....thats what made Rivera, Hoffman, and so far Papelbon so dominant.

[example1]

I agree and think those are good comparisons. And Dojji, I hate to say this, but if he "only" walks 3/9 then we're talking about a guy who allows an extra baserunner every 3 innings. If he pitches sparingly, or if they can determine any group that he does better against then others, chances are he can improve on that amount, or continue to be aggressive, walk a few more guys but get everyone else to hit weak popups or strike out. Hell, if he's a 6th or 7th inning guy who can be relieved by Ramirez, Delcarmen, Okajima, etc., if he gets in trouble, he could be more than useful, even this early in his development. Or he could Hansen and suck and crumble under pressure.

[jacksonianmarch]

No.

year| Level | IP | K | BB | K/BB |
2007 | A | 61.2 | 38 | 56 | 0.68 |
2007 | A+ | 13.1 | 9 | 22 | 0.41 |
2008 | A | 28 | 43 | 4 | 10.75 |
2008 | AA | 49.2 | 64 | 26 | 2.46 |

I'm not saying Bard is a control pitcher by any stretch, but to go from consistently more BBs than K's to consistently more K's than BB's is a big step in the right direction.

He found his control in low A as a 23 yr old with power stuff and then conveniently lost it when he faced more polished hitters. Listen man, I agree he took a big step forward, but he didnt suddenly find control. He suddenly found more aggressive and less skilled hitters. Nobody doubts that Bard has a great fastball. And nobody doubts that on his good days, Bard could be completely lights out. I think what remains to be seen is if he can consistently get good fastball command on a day to day basis. He hasnt shown that at all. If he can at least have that then he'll be useful. Right now he doesnt

[diony]

I'd say a better comparison for Daniel Bard is Joba Chamberlain, Bobby Jenks, Joel Zumaya.

High velocity fastball that could touch 100 and a breaking ball (call it a curve or slider) but not much else. Durability and consistency become the biggest questions with these guys. Luckily for Bard he throws with an effortless motion which leads me to believe there isn't as much strain. His breaking ball has come a long ways but is probably only good for an inning or so. He was deffinitly built for the bullpen and should be a hell of a setup man for the Red Sox when his time comes. Stay healthy and be around the plate....thats what made Rivera, Hoffman, and so far Papelbon so dominant.

Because they both sit at 98? :blink:

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd say a better comparison for Daniel Bard is Joba Chamberlain, Bobby Jenks, Joel Zumaya.

High velocity fastball that could touch 100 and a breaking ball (call it a curve or slider) but not much else. Durability and consistency become the biggest questions with these guys. Luckily for Bard he throws with an effortless motion which leads me to believe there isn't as much strain. His breaking ball has come a long ways but is probably only good for an inning or so. He was deffinitly built for the bullpen and should be a hell of a setup man for the Red Sox when his time comes. Stay healthy and be around the plate....thats what made Rivera, Hoffman, and so far Papelbon so dominant.

I actually would put Jenks in there and get rid of the Zumaya comparison and the Joba one. I do think Jenks and Bard fall along a similar path and Jenks is the best case scenario for Bard. I wouldnt put Zumaya in there because I think Zumaya consistently throws harder than all on the list. Zumaya can sit 99-101, Bard tops out there as do Jenks and Joba. Also, Zumaya has battled injuries since his run in 2006 and therefore may not be someone to strive for in the first place. But getting back to the Jenks comparison. Jenks was an all fastball, no control starter in the Angels system who converted to the pen full time in 2005 when he was claimed by the White Sox and was lights out from there. I think comparing to Joba in terms of stuff is off because Joba has a better slider and a third plus pitch and comparing control is not even close either.

[Dojji]

I'd say a better comparison for Daniel Bard is Joba Chamberlain, Bobby Jenks, Joel Zumaya.

Not until he gets his walks down it isn't. You can fault Joba for a lot of things but spotty command isn't one of them and while Jenks used to be a bit wild he settled WAAAAY down over the last couple years and had an impressive 1.8 bb/9 this last season.

Zumaya's probably a fair comp but not a beneficial one for Bard -- he had a 1:1 BB/K ratio -- over 8k/9, over 8 bb/9. That's pretty Aardsma-like.

Right now the best big league comparison for Bard is probably Brian Bruney, Juan Cruz, or Carlos Marmol. Guys who walk a lot of batters but are overpowering enough to get away with it.


High velocity fastball that could touch 100 and a breaking ball (call it a curve or slider) but not much else. Durability and consistency become the biggest questions with these guys.

No, command became the biggest issue with these guys. The success stories are the guys who mastered it. Baseball hitters are cunning and excel at timing a pitcher. Bard could throw a baseball through a steel pylon but if he can't put it where he wants to, it's still going back out twice as fast as it's coming in once guys have seen him a few times.

I don't particularly care if a guy is injury prone. You can work around that given adequate depth as long as a guy isn't Glass Carl. If a pitcher cannot command his pitches, throw strikes, find the holes in a hitter's swing, and make adjustments to the hitter as he adjusts to the pitcher, all of which require a big league level of command and control that Bard doesn't have yet, he isn't going to thrive at the big league level for very long.


Luckily for Bard he throws with an effortless motion which leads me to believe there isn't as much strain. His breaking ball has come a long ways but is probably only good for an inning or so. He was deffinitly built for the bullpen and should be a hell of a setup man for the Red Sox when his time comes. Stay healthy and be around the plate....thats what made Rivera, Hoffman, and so far Papelbon so dominant.

THat's not half of what made Rivera, Hoffman, and Papelbon so dominant. All three of these pitchers have superb command and control, enough to compensate for a lack of overpowering stuff in any given outing.

Papelbon might top out at 98 can get big league hitters out even when he's only hitting 91 on the radar gun -- we've seen it several times. Rivera and Hoffmann don't regularly top out above 92 anymore. Bard is going to have to be at his best just to get people out, if he doesn't have his 100 in a given outing he has a far better chance of being lit up. That's why he belongs in the minors. If he's walking 4 batters per 9 innings in AA he's walking a whole HECK of a lot more than that if he comes to the big leagues now and giving up HR's when he has to overpitch the fastall too.

I understand the lure of the power reliever guys -- believe me, I do. I'm grateful that we have 3 very good ones on our roster right now. But the downside of the power reliever is always and will always be the walks, and Bard needs to prove that he can overcome that problem before he should sniff the big leagues, overpowering stuff or not.

[BSN07]

I actually would put Jenks in there and get rid of the Zumaya comparison and the Joba one. I do think Jenks and Bard fall along a similar path and Jenks is the best case scenario for Bard. I wouldnt put Zumaya in there because I think Zumaya consistently throws harder than all on the list. Zumaya can sit 99-101, Bard tops out there as do Jenks and Joba. Also, Zumaya has battled injuries since his run in 2006 and therefore may not be someone to strive for in the first place. But getting back to the Jenks comparison. Jenks was an all fastball, no control starter in the Angels system who converted to the pen full time in 2005 when he was claimed by the White Sox and was lights out from there. I think comparing to Joba in terms of stuff is off because Joba has a better slider and a third plus pitch and comparing control is not even close either.

The couple times I've seen Bard pitch this spring, he has been at 97-99MPH with his FB consistently. Given his effortless motion, I think if he tried he could hit 100MPH+ like Zumaya.


Bard looks like he could be really good. But he still has some work to be done. I look forward to watching his progression.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not until he gets his walks down it isn't. You can fault Joba for a lot of things but spotty command isn't one of them and while Jenks used to be a bit wild he settled WAAAAY down over the last couple years and had an impressive 1.8 bb/9 this last season.

Zumaya's probably a fair comp but not a beneficial one for Bard -- he had a 1:1 BB/K ratio -- over 8k/9, over 8 bb/9. That's pretty Aardsma-like.

Right now the best big league comparison for Bard is probably Brian Bruney, Juan Cruz, or Carlos Marmol. Guys who walk a lot of batters but are overpowering enough to get away with it.



No, command became the biggest issue with these guys. The success stories are the guys who mastered it. Baseball hitters are cunning and excel at timing a pitcher. Bard could throw a baseball through a steel pylon but if he can't put it where he wants to, it's still going back out twice as fast as it's coming in once guys have seen him a few times.

I don't particularly care if a guy is injury prone. You can work around that given adequate depth as long as a guy isn't Glass Carl. If a pitcher cannot command his pitches, throw strikes, find the holes in a hitter's swing, and make adjustments to the hitter as he adjusts to the pitcher, all of which require a big league level of command and control that Bard doesn't have yet, he isn't going to thrive at the big league level for very long.



THat's not half of what made Rivera, Hoffman, and Papelbon so dominant. All three of these pitchers have superb command and control, enough to compensate for a lack of overpowering stuff in any given outing.

Papelbon might top out at 98 can get big league hitters out even when he's only hitting 91 on the radar gun -- we've seen it several times. Rivera and Hoffmann don't regularly top out above 92 anymore. Bard is going to have to be at his best just to get people out, if he doesn't have his 100 in a given outing he has a far better chance of being lit up. That's why he belongs in the minors. If he's walking 4 batters per 9 innings in AA he's walking a whole HECK of a lot more than that if he comes to the big leagues now and giving up HR's when he has to overpitch the fastall too.

I understand the lure of the power reliever guys -- believe me, I do. I'm grateful that we have 3 very good ones on our roster right now. But the downside of the power reliever is always and will always be the walks, and Bard needs to prove that he can overcome that problem before he should sniff the big leagues, overpowering stuff or not.

very nice post

[Dojji]

very nice post

Uggh, I feel dirty now.

[BSN07]

Uggh, I feel dirty now.

One of the better post's I've seen from you Dojji:D


Hopefully this post will be like soap for you, but filth like Jacko(;)) doesn't come off easy:D

[riverside sluggers]

I cant wait for the debut of Bard. He just needs at least half of a season in Triple A to be ready. The bullpen is already a lock to be one of the top 5 in baseball, add a young fireballer into the mix... wow

[ORS]

Go team, Go!

*waves pom-poms*
No team, ever, is a lock to have a top-anything bullpen, not with the amount of volatility in reliver performance from year to year.

[Dojji]

Yeah, but that's true of mediocre pens too. You'd be hard pressed to deny that we have depth at a near unprecedented level-- 4-5 different pitchers need to fail -- hard -- for us not to have a quality setup corps and an elite closer.

I definitely like having a guy like Hunter Jones or Daniel Bard in reserve too. Bard isn't ready yet and whether he's worth a callup depends on whether he can harness his command, but Hunter Jones was probably ready last year, is an innings horse, and while his stuff isn't Dan Bard caliber he's got enough to get by at the big league level. If I had to pick who the next Masterson level pleasant surprise would be it'd probably be Jones.

Add to that the fact that Masterson himself might be in the wings as a reserve starter and that's 7 different pitchers that need to blow it bigtime before we're even in trouble.

There's reason for a certain optimism.

[riverside sluggers]

Lol at my post being criticized. But yet no one had countered other posters who have said that this bullpen will be stuff of legend, or historically good. If the rotation is good as it is on paper, they will eat up innings and allow the bullpen not be overworked. Heck Kyle Snyder had a career year in 2007

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have the makings of a solid pen. But there are two guys they cannot live without (just like we have one guy we can absolutely not lose). You lose Papelbon or Oki for an extended period of time and that pen drops to mediocre quickly. ORS is right. Bullpens are notorious for having waxing and waning success over the yrs. Those with marquee players typically disband quickly.

[TheKilo]

Lol at my post being criticized. But yet no one had countered other posters who have said that this bullpen will be stuff of legend, or historically good. If the rotation is good as it is on paper, they will eat up innings and allow the bullpen not be overworked. Heck Kyle Snyder had a career year in 2007

I'm not criticized because I RULE THIS PLACE

[ORS]

Lol at my post being criticized. But yet no one had countered other posters who have said that this bullpen will be stuff of legend, or historically good. If the rotation is good as it is on paper, they will eat up innings and allow the bullpen not be overworked. Heck Kyle Snyder had a career year in 2007
I read those posts, and my recollection of them is that they had the good sense to qualify the optimism with phrases like "could be" or "a chance to be". They did not reek of hubris and call anything a "lock".

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Not until he gets his walks down it isn't. You can fault Joba for a lot of things but spotty command isn't one of them and while Jenks used to be a bit wild he settled WAAAAY down over the last couple years and had an impressive 1.8 bb/9 this last season.

Zumaya's probably a fair comp but not a beneficial one for Bard -- he had a 1:1 BB/K ratio -- over 8k/9, over 8 bb/9. That's pretty Aardsma-like.

Right now the best big league comparison for Bard is probably Brian Bruney, Juan Cruz, or Carlos Marmol. Guys who walk a lot of batters but are overpowering enough to get away with it.

My comparison was based on pitch type and velocity. Not stats since Bard has never pitched in the big leagues. Once that begins we can make a comparison based on stats.


I don't particularly care if a guy is injury prone. You can work around that given adequate depth as long as a guy isn't Glass Carl. If a pitcher cannot command his pitches, throw strikes, find the holes in a hitter's swing, and make adjustments to the hitter as he adjusts to the pitcher, all of which require a big league level of command and control that Bard doesn't have yet, he isn't going to thrive at the big league level for very long.

I'll have to disagree to some degree. Injury prone pitchers are an issue. The more injuries you have the less effective you become, especially as a pitcher. It doesn't take much to lose a few MPH from your fastball and suddenly you don't have the edge you once had. I agree with your assesment on what it takes to be a major league pitcher but Daniel Bard has all the talent to become that player. He was a star pitcher at North Carolina, a 1st round pick that dropped farther than he was supposed to, and is making large strides to fullfilling his potential. Lets not be all doom and gloom already on the kid....lets watch him pitch in a big situation and continue this conversation.


THat's not half of what made Rivera, Hoffman, and Papelbon so dominant. All three of these pitchers have superb command and control, enough to compensate for a lack of overpowering stuff in any given outing. .

Whats the difference between command and control in terms of pitching? I apologize I said "consistency around the plate" hence...control...sorry for the confusion but I'm agreeing with you.


Papelbon might top out at 98 can get big league hitters out even when he's only hitting 91 on the radar gun -- we've seen it several times. Rivera and Hoffmann don't regularly top out above 92 anymore. Bard is going to have to be at his best just to get people out, if he doesn't have his 100 in a given outing he has a far better chance of being lit up. That's why he belongs in the minors. If he's walking 4 batters per 9 innings in AA he's walking a whole HECK of a lot more than that if he comes to the big leagues now and giving up HR's when he has to overpitch the fastall too.

How many walks does Bard have this spring training? How many Ks does he have or hell how many innings (I don't have the stats). I'm sure they are good and he only has a couple walks....its only spring training but this is why we are all talking about him. It's exciting to watch and to think he quite possibly could continue to improve. I don't think anyone disputes he should start this season in the minors but we are watching a young pitcher grow into the player he is supposed to be....good times

[Coco's Disciples]

I'm not criticized because I RULE THIS PLACE

Yeah, that's essentially true.

[Dojji]

My comparison was based on pitch type and velocity. Not stats since Bard has never pitched in the big leagues. Once that begins we can make a comparison based on stats.

Alright, but command is part of makeup just like selection, break and velocity is. It doesn't matter how good his stuff is if he doesn't know where it's going.




I'll have to disagree to some degree. Injury prone pitchers are an issue. The more injuries you have the less effective you become, especially as a pitcher. It doesn't take much to lose a few MPH from your fastball and suddenly you don't have the edge you once had.

That's why it's important to have more than one pitching "tool." You need to have good command and control, good deception, and good stuff to last a long time in the big leagues. Right now Bard has fantastic stuff and above average deception but the command is just not there. My fear is that he gets away with not developing his command working against AAA and AAAA hitters and it bites him in the backside when he debuts.


I agree with your assesment on what it takes to be a major league pitcher but Daniel Bard has all the talent to become that player. He was a star pitcher at North Carolina, a 1st round pick that dropped farther than he was supposed to, and is making large strides to fullfilling his potential. Lets not be all doom and gloom already on the kid....lets watch him pitch in a big situation and continue this conversation.

You won't hear me bashing Bard's potential, but the guy's 23 and still hasn't developed even average command at the AA level. He's very, very volatile right now, and could just as easily take a step backwards as another step forward. If he fulfils his potential he's going to be dominant, and even in his downside he'll probably get major league innings to pitch. But his window is shrinking to really be that guy we're seeing right now for an entire career.



How many walks does Bard have this spring training? How many Ks does he have or hell how many innings (I don't have the stats).

Who cares? it's Spring Training. The ultimate celebration of the small sample size.


I'm sure they are good and he only has a couple walks....its only spring training but this is why we are all talking about him. It's exciting to watch and to think he quite possibly could continue to improve. I don't think anyone disputes he should start this season in the minors but we are watching a young pitcher grow into the player he is supposed to be....good times

There's a fair few other pitchers in this system that I think are more likely to reach their potential than Dan Bard. But then, I was never as wowed by velocity as some. Maybe Bard proves me wrong. I hope so.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Who cares? it's Spring Training. The ultimate celebration of the small sample size.

There's a fair few other pitchers in this system that I think are more likely to reach their potential than Dan Bard. But then, I was never as wowed by velocity as some. Maybe Bard proves me wrong. I hope so.

True its spring training but that being said his performance is what has spawned this thread to pick up steam and writers commenting on his performance. His stat line from what I found:
7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, 0.00 ERA

Daniel Bard was drafted over Justin Masterson in 2006 and although Masterson developed faster and has had more success to this point at the MLB level, Bard has the higher ceiling. Just for comparison last season in AA:

Masterson = 41.0 IP / 2.31 K/BB / 4.23 ERA
Bard = 49.2 IP / 2.46 K/BB / 1.99 ERA

[Dojji]

Masterson >>>>> Bard.

It. Is. Not. Close.

Masterson is a starter, or has the ability to be one. Bard does not.

To my view, an above average starter > a great reliever unless that reliever is currently an elite closer. If Masterson has the ceiling of a #2 starter, I consider that a higher ceiling than an elite setup man, which is the most you cn ask of Bard right now. So I say that as far as ceilings go, Bard's is flashier, but Masterson's is more useful to the team -- and anway, Masterson is closer to his ceiling at a younger age.

Masterson is the same age as Bard. He has been an effective starter. He has been an effective setup man. SOmeday, 2-3 years from now, Bard MIGHT be doing what Masterson did LAST YEAR.

I don't think you can just say that Bard has more potential than Masterson just because he throws 100 and was higher on the draft slot. What they've done in the meantime is a huge advantage for Masterson, ERA in 8 Portland starts notwithstanding. Besides that, Bard's ceiling has dropped since the draft thanks to his headcase fiasco in 2007, and Justin Masterson's has only gone up. since he was seen as a reliever on draft day and sbubsequently proved that he could start too.

Bard might have a plus-plus fastball because of velocity. Masterson's sinker is plus-plus too, because of its movement and his ability to command it. If you had to ask me point black which was a better main offering for a relief pitcher, I take Masterson's power sinker every day of the week and twice on Sunday's over a generic 100.

Think of it this way: Bard's job is to make sure you don't hit the ball. If you hit it, he's already failed in his primary objective as a pitcher. Masterson's job as a power sinkerballer is to make sure that even if you do hit it, it's on his terms. Even if you make contact you haven't necessarily beaten him. That's a more complete strategy.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Masterson >>>>> Bard.

It. Is. Not. Close.

Masterson is a starter, or has the ability to be one. Bard does not.

To my view, an above average starter > a great reliever unless that reliever is currently an elite closer. If Masterson has the ceiling of a #2 starter, I consider that a higher ceiling than an elite setup man, which is the most you cn ask of Bard right now. So I say that as far as ceilings go, Bard's is flashier, but Masterson's is more useful to the team -- and anway, Masterson is closer to his ceiling at a younger age.

Masterson is the same age as Bard. He has been an effective starter. He has been an effective setup man. SOmeday, 2-3 years from now, Bard MIGHT be doing what Masterson did LAST YEAR.

I don't think you can just say that Bard has more potential than Masterson just because he throws 100 and was higher on the draft slot. What they've done in the meantime is a huge advantage for Masterson, ERA in 8 Portland starts notwithstanding. Besides that, Bard's ceiling has dropped since the draft thanks to his headcase fiasco in 2007, and Justin Masterson's has only gone up. since he was seen as a reliever on draft day and sbubsequently proved that he could start too.

Bard might have a plus-plus fastball because of velocity. Masterson's sinker is plus-plus too, because of its movement and his ability to command it. If you had to ask me point black which was a better main offering for a relief pitcher, I take Masterson's power sinker every day of the week and twice on Sunday's over a generic 100.

Yikes I don't think much of this response because you are contradicting the hell out of yourself. Justin Masterson had a 1.70 K/BB ratio last season at the MLB level and you are preaching control. Daniel Bard had a better K/BB ratio than Masterson in AA. Which is it? Masterson got the jump to the MLB level but thats because Bard was still discovering himself in A-ball the year before and needed more time. Just because you are the fastest to reach the MLB level does not necessarily mean you will be the better player in the long run. Is there such a thing as a generic 100 mph fastball?


Think of it this way: Bard's job is to make sure you don't hit the ball. If you hit it, he's already failed in his primary objective as a pitcher. Masterson's job as a power sinkerballer is to make sure that even if you do hit it, it's on his terms. Even if you make contact you haven't necessarily beaten him. That's a more complete strategy.

Thats not just Daniel Bard or Justin Masterson....thats every pitcher. Every pitcher is trying to get to the point where the dictate the game and make there pitches so the opposing team doesn't hit it out of the park.

[Dojji]

Yikes I don't think much of this response because you are contradicting the hell out of yourself. Justin Masterson had a 1.70 K/BB ratio last season at the MLB level and you are preaching control. Daniel Bard had a better K/BB ratio than Masterson in AA. Which is it? Masterson got the jump to the MLB level but thats because Bard was still discovering himself in A-ball the year before and needed more time. Just because you are the fastest to reach the MLB level does not necessarily mean you will be the better player in the long run. Is there such a thing as a generic 100 mph fastball?

There is indeed such a thing as a generic 100 MPH fastball. Just ask Kyle Farnsworth who used to throw one before he tried to refine his style and sacrificed a bit of velocity for movement. Throwing hard should not be considered a tool in its own right. You an be a power pitcher and "only" throw 93 or 94. 100 only helps you depending on what you do with it.

Am I contradicting myself by praising Masterson despite his walks total at the big league level? Maybe I am, but three points.

First: Masterson has demonstrated very good command in the minors, so it's easier to dismiss his 4 bb/9 in the big leagues as a blip related to him adjusting to the league.

Second: a ground ball pitcher can tolerate more walks than a power pitcher because of the potential for double plays. We saw that at work more than a few times especially when Masterson started.

Finally: Masterson got most of his walks when he was pitching to lefthanders, and he got them because he didn't give in and give the lefthanded pitcher something to kill him with. Once again, that's just a matter of Masterson adjusting to the league and mastering the ability to pitch to lefthanded hitters. It doesn't affect my perception of the tool called "control" as much as a guy who's dominating AA hitters with a 100 MPH fastball and an elite slide piece and still can't avoid the walks. (if there was ever a time to fear NO one...)



Thats not just Daniel Bard or Justin Masterson....thats every pitcher. Every pitcher is trying to get to the point where the dictate the game and make there pitches so the opposing team doesn't hit it out of the park.

Yeah but it's hard to deny that the sinkerballers have an edge there.

[a700hitter]

Bard has done nothing but throw strikes all Spring. He has not struggled with command at all. He has had quite a few outings thus far and in my recollection, he hasn't struggled with command in one of them.

[BSN07]

Bard is going to force someone in the BP to become expendable. Kid has been great so far. But I still think he starts in the Minors. It is ST, the most optimistic time of year.

[a700hitter]

Bard is going to force someone in the BP to become expendable. Kid has been great so far. But I still think he starts in the Minors. It is ST, the most optimistic time of year.If Penny or Wakefield start the season on the DL, Masterson could be in the rotation. That would open a bull pen spot for Bard.

[Dojji]

Bard will not break camp with Boston no matter what. I have to think that they'd try to keep hold of Littleton if a spot opens, or failing that promote Hunter Jones, who's due a chance to prove himself..

[a700hitter]

Bard will not break camp with Boston no matter what. I have to think that they'd try to keep hold of Littleton if a spot opens, or failing that promote Hunter Jones, who's due a chance to prove himself..Littleton just flat out sucks.

[BoSox21]

Yea, but they aren't gonna risk ruining Bard just because Wes Littleton sucks

They should keep Masterson in the bullpen and go with Buchholz if any starter can't go

[Dojji]

Noce to have some quality depth isn't it? A lot of teams would probably be in no position to quibble about it if a guy that threw 100 looked close to ready. In half the teams in baseball Bard would probably finish his training on the job.

[a700hitter]

Yea, but they aren't gonna risk ruining Bard just because Wes Littleton sucks

They should keep Masterson in the bullpen and go with Buchholz if any starter can't goRisk of what? I don't see how letting him get a few outings at the ML level would put him at "risk". It think it would be a good learning opportunity. If he were to flop, it would help him to identify the adjustments that he will have to make in order to be successful in the majors. If he were to succeed, there is nothing bad about that.

[CrespoBlows]

Risk of what? I don't see how letting him get a few outings at the ML level would put him at "risk". It think it would be a good learning opportunity. If he were to flop, it would help him to identify the adjustments that he will have to make in order to be successful in the majors. If he were to succeed, there is nothing bad about that.

I am tired of hearing how the slightest bad outing causing a prospect to be RUINED.

We must draft the biggest douchebags every year for this explanation to keep coming up. If Bard manages to have a bad couple of outings, and is "ruined" by it, then how did anyone expect anything from him?

I don't want these pussies on our team, if they can't handle allowing a base hit early in their career.

[a700hitter]

I am tired of hearing how the slightest bad outing causing a prospect to be RUINED.

We must draft the biggest douchebags every year for this explanation to keep coming up. If Bard manages to have a bad couple of outings, and is "ruined" by it, then how did anyone expect anything from him?

I don't want these pussies on our team, if they can't handle allowing a base hit early in their career.I agree completely. IMO Hansen didn't get ruined by getting rushed to the majors. The kid just can't repeat his delivery, and he has never been able to correct that flaw. He's still young, so time has not completely run out on him. If he can't make the necessary adjustments, he will be a failure of his own accord. It will have nothing to do with getting rushed.

[BoSox21]

A big part of pitching is based on mentality and confidence. A lot guys can't sack up and get their shit together if they stumble out of the gate. Homer Bailey might be becoming one those cases.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Masterson >>>>> Bard.

It. Is. Not. Close.

Masterson is a starter, or has the ability to be one. Bard does not.

This is your reasoning? Wow, definitely wouldn't want a guy who can hit high velocity and has been having no command trouble to be a possible future closer (you know, in event that Papelbon's demands are too high).

[a700hitter]

A big part of pitching is based on mentality and confidence. A lot guys can't sack up and get their shit together if they stumble out of the gate. Homer Bailey might be becoming one those cases.Pressure situations that can destroy a pitcher's psyche to the point that he cannot succeed are rare... maybe the Bobby Thompson Shot Heard Around the World, the Joel Carter World Series winning home run or Hendu's HR off Donnie Moore.

[Dojji]

This is your reasoning? Wow, definitely wouldn't want a guy who can hit high velocity and has been having no command trouble to be a possible future closer (you know, in event that Papelbon's demands are too high).

Who says I don't want Bard? I just think he needs a lot of work in the minors still, and that Masterson is way better right now.

It's not like my position isn't based on a reasonable evaluation of the facts, after all Masterson was in the big leagues last year in the role Bard projects to take over in 2 years. and they're the same age.

Sure, Bard's got a plus-plus fastball, and Masterson's got a plus-plus sinker so that's a wash. Secondary stuff favors Masterson, or is at worst a wash. That 3 digit number on the radar gun is excellent and Bard might excel in his role, but Masterson has all the tools he needs to succeed in a much more important (IMHO) role to the team. And most importantly of all, he already has a year of MLB experience under his belt in which he put up quality numbers.

Also, while Bard was drafted ahead of Masterson, Masterson moved up in the prospect rankings with his work in the minors while Bard moved down for the most part especially in 2007.

I'm glad Bard is having a great spring, but I definitely want to see him demonstrate good command over at least a 20-30 inning sample size before I'm comfortable calling for him to be promoted to the big leagues.

[BoSox21]

To follow up on the posts above, Wes Littleton won't be an option anyway cause he was claimed off waivers today by Milwaukee

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Masterson >>>>> Bard.

It. Is. Not. Close.

I believe Daniel Bard has proved he is a better reliever than Justin Masterson. Clay Buchholz has more upside and is ready to explode in a starter role. Now the question is what to do with Masterson?

I think he is too good as a long-reliever type but not sure he is good enough to be in the Red Sox rotation. I wonder what he could net the Sox in a trade this offseason?

[BoSox21]

A simple lolwut would've sufficed

[Coco's Disciples]

I think he's a very nice long/middle reliever if not traded.

[Dipre]

The real awesome thing about Bard is how effortless that delivery looks.

And in all seriousness, that 88-89 MPH slider after a 99 MPH FB should be illegal in some states.

[example1]

I believe Daniel Bard has proved he is a better reliever than Justin Masterson. Clay Buchholz has more upside and is ready to explode in a starter role. Now the question is what to do with Masterson?

I think he is too good as a long-reliever type but not sure he is good enough to be in the Red Sox rotation. I wonder what he could net the Sox in a trade this offseason?

I brought this up in another thread. Masterson might be the easiest piece to trade because he has more value to other teams than he seems to for the Red Sox.

Also, I'm starting to think that not only is Daniel Bard > Justin Masterson, but Daniel Bard > Joba Chamberlain. His stuff is better and his role is more defined. If Chamberlain pulls it together as a starting pitcher then that will change, but nobody questions that Bard is a setup man and his role will not change.

The Yankees pitching woes have really fucked Joba's role up. Hughes in the 'pen, Joba struggling as a starter? What?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I brought this up in another thread. Masterson might be the easiest piece to trade because he has more value to other teams than he seems to for the Red Sox.

Also, I'm starting to think that not only is Daniel Bard > Justin Masterson, but Daniel Bard > Joba Chamberlain. His stuff is better and his role is more defined. If Chamberlain pulls it together as a starting pitcher then that will change, but nobody questions that Bard is a setup man and his role will not change.

The Yankees pitching woes have really fucked Joba's role up. Hughes in the 'pen, Joba struggling as a starter? What?

As relievers I don't think you can go wrong either way with Joba or Bard. Just as Joba has struggled in the rotation so would Bard. Both have high velocity fastballs but not enough movement. Both have excellent breaking balls but they lack that third pitch which they both require as starters. If either had a changeup we would be talking about Justin Verlander type starters.

I still think Justin Masterson could be a strong starting pitcher but whether he becomes Brandon Webb or Fausto Carmona is yet to be seen.

[example1]

As relievers I don't think you can go wrong either way with Joba or Bard. Just as Joba has struggled in the rotation so would Bard. Both have high velocity fastballs but not enough movement. Both have excellent breaking balls but they lack that third pitch which they both require as starters. If either had a changeup we would be talking about Justin Verlander type starters.

I still think Justin Masterson could be a strong starting pitcher but whether he becomes Brandon Webb or Fausto Carmona is yet to be seen.

I agree about Masterson, but I don't think he'll have the chance to find out about his SP potential in Boston.

In terms of Joba, last year he had an average fastball velocity of 95 mph; This year it is down to 92.4.

(http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Yankees&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=4&season=2008&month=0)

Some may argue that he's trying to stretch himself out or save his arm, but just about every number looks worse for him this year. If that's his strategy it isn't working. His K/9, K/BB, ERA, FIP, LOB%, AVG, WHIP have all become noticably worse.

In my opinion, Joba should be in the pen. I think the Yankees struggled with that decision and chose poorly; compared to the Sox decision about Papelbon (virtually the same decision) it was a pretty bad one, though logical. To put it another way, I'm glad the Sox ended up making the right choice with Papelbon.

With Bard, the decision seems like an easy one. In terms of motion and stuff he reminds me a lot of Joe Nathan with better velocity. They both rely on FB/SL and they both have a big frame and a really easy motion. Let's hope he looks that way in a few years... if he does then the Sox will have struck gold again through the draft.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the tendonitis scared Joba and showed him that throwing every pitch full force is a bad idea. I think Joba is trying to be a guy who throws 92-93 consistently with the occasional 97-98mph fastball as needed. What he is seeing, though, is that he has to be a lot more fine with the 92-93 than he did with the 97-98. When he was in the pen, he got the 98mph heat close to the location and he dominated. Now, the 92mph heat close to the location is getting fouled off. This causes longer counts, increased tiredness and an increased likelihood of a walk or a mistake. He'll get there. Either he will gain more endurance and arm strength through this yr causing him to be able to elevate the heater further on into his career, or he will develop some improved control. As much as some like to think it is, this is not a lost yr for Joba. This is a learning opportunity for him, and he will be better for it.

[BSN07]

I brought this up in another thread. Masterson might be the easiest piece to trade because he has more value to other teams than he seems to for the Red Sox.

Also, I'm starting to think that not only is Daniel Bard > Justin Masterson, but Daniel Bard > Joba Chamberlain. His stuff is better and his role is more defined. If Chamberlain pulls it together as a starting pitcher then that will change, but nobody questions that Bard is a setup man and his role will not change.

The Yankees pitching woes have really fucked Joba's role up. Hughes in the 'pen, Joba struggling as a starter? What?

I brought up Masterson having more value to other teams this winter and was told I was a fool and basically got bashed for it.:D

It was during some trade talks. I was saying Masterson be a good player to possibly move because he was a RP on the Sox, but they could trade him and possibly get SP value for him.

[Dipre]

I think the tendonitis scared Joba and showed him that throwing every pitch full force is a bad idea. I think Joba is trying to be a guy who throws 92-93 consistently with the occasional 97-98mph fastball as needed. What he is seeing, though, is that he has to be a lot more fine with the 92-93 than he did with the 97-98. When he was in the pen, he got the 98mph heat close to the location and he dominated. Now, the 92mph heat close to the location is getting fouled off. This causes longer counts, increased tiredness and an increased likelihood of a walk or a mistake. He'll get there. Either he will gain more endurance and arm strength through this yr causing him to be able to elevate the heater further on into his career, or he will develop some improved control. As much as some like to think it is, this is not a lost yr for Joba. This is a learning opportunity for him, and he will be better for it.

Joba's mechanics. Study them.

[example1]

I think the tendonitis scared Joba and showed him that throwing every pitch full force is a bad idea. I think Joba is trying to be a guy who throws 92-93 consistently with the occasional 97-98mph fastball as needed. What he is seeing, though, is that he has to be a lot more fine with the 92-93 than he did with the 97-98. When he was in the pen, he got the 98mph heat close to the location and he dominated. Now, the 92mph heat close to the location is getting fouled off. This causes longer counts, increased tiredness and an increased likelihood of a walk or a mistake. He'll get there. Either he will gain more endurance and arm strength through this yr causing him to be able to elevate the heater further on into his career, or he will develop some improved control.

Or he will not be the pitcher people think he is going to be.... it is a 3rd possibility that should be accounted for. You are asking that he develop pinpoint control or Roger Clemens-like stamina. Perhaps he will get there, but I'm not sure, especially since pinpoint control is something that people try to develop for their whole lives and fail. My guess is that if he doesn't gain the stamina to be able to consistently hit 94-95, he will be much less successful than you hoped for (or I assumed).

Or they could just get their heads out of their asses and make him the heir to Mo and have him solidify the 8th inning.



As much as some like to think it is, this is not a lost yr for Joba. This is a learning opportunity for him, and he will be better for it.

The results will bear this out one way or the other. Presently this sentiment is nothing but optimism (and I'm an optimistic guy too!).

[jacksonianmarch]

and he produced today. Velocity was good and after the first 2 innings, he was damn near unhittable and the location was there. Maybe he just needed a mental break.

[example1]

Joba is a huge, HUGE tool and someone who I hope fails every single game.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont care how big of a tool he is. Paps is just as big a tool and I would love both of them in pinstripes.

[Dutchy]

and he produced today. Velocity was good and after the first 2 innings, he was damn near unhittable and the location was there. Maybe he just needed a mental break.

He got twice his normal amount or rest. Wait until he's pitching on normal rest, then see what his velocity is.

[Dutchy]

I dont care how big of a tool he is. Paps is just as big a tool and I would love both of them in pinstripes.

Do you at least admit you were wrong about Bard? He's just as good as the reliever Chamberlain has been. And Chambo hasn't shown much as a starter.

[Coco's Disciples]

Do you at least admit you were wrong about Bard? He's twice the reliever Chamberlain has been. And Chambo hasn't shown much as a starter.

What?

Bard: 2.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.2 K/BB, 11.1 K/9, 5.9 H/9, 3.5 BB/9
Chamberlain in relief: 1.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.9 K/BB, 11.9 K/9, 5.9 H/9, 3.05 BB/9

[Dutchy]

What?

Bard: 2.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.2 K/BB, 11.1 K/9, 5.9 H/9, 3.5 BB/9
Chamberlain in relief: 1.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.9 K/BB, 11.9 K/9, 5.9 H/9, 3.05 BB/9

Do you really have to refute every single thing I say? I'm beginning to wonder what you have against me other than being Crespos' BFF. Rush Limbaugh forever!

The only year Chambo was even close to Bard's numbers was in 2007, in a tiny sample size. Bard has a 1.86 FIP as a reliever with a 11+ K/9. The best year Chambo's ever ever had, he had a 1.82 FIP with a 10+ K/9. And he hasn't been nearly the same since.

[Coco's Disciples]

Really, I'm not allowed to refute what you say? All right. You nailed it. Joba's sample size for 2007, which is 2 IP less than the only sample size you have for Bard, is tiny.

[example1]

The only year Chambo was even close to Bard's numbers was in 2007, in a tiny sample size. Bard has a 1.86 FIP as a reliever with a 11+ K/9. The best year Chambo's ever ever had, he had a 1.82 FIP with a 10+ K/9. And he hasn't been nearly the same since.

Both are very good relievers. Chamberlain's league debut was undoubtedly better than Bard's. He gave up 2 runs in roughly the same amount of innings; Bard has given up 11. During that time his H/9, BB/9 and K/9 are all worse than Joba's.

The only mistake Chamberlain made was having been on a team that moved him out of the bullpen. If not for that he would have been setting up Rivera in the pen for 2 years while Daniel Bard is just getting his training wheels off.

[Dutchy]

Really, I'm not allowed to refute what you say? All right. You nailed it. Joba's sample size for 2007, which is 2 IP less than the only sample size you have for Bard, is tiny.

Yup, you're not allowed to ever refute what I say. That's totally what I said, slave!

Man, I wish I listened to Rush Limbaugh so I could fit in... :(

[Dutchy]

I dont care how big of a tool he is. Paps is just as big a tool and I would love both of them in pinstripes.

Call me when Paps gets arrested for driving drunk at 100 mph.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guarantee you he'll be back in the pen the next night

[jacksonianmarch]

Do you really have to refute every single thing I say? I'm beginning to wonder what you have against me other than being Crespos' BFF. Rush Limbaugh forever!

The only year Chambo was even close to Bard's numbers was in 2007, in a tiny sample size. Bard has a 1.86 FIP as a reliever with a 11+ K/9. The best year Chambo's ever ever had, he had a 1.82 FIP with a 10+ K/9. And he hasn't been nearly the same since.

well, last yr Joba was hurt and was yo-yo'd between starting and relieving. Here's the thing. Joba is still new to this role and he's going to get better. Bard cannot start. The sox have learned that lesson with his embarassing debut in low A where he got hit hard and walked 9-10 per 9IP. I will assure you that Joba in the pen would be more dominant than Bard. That being said, watching Bard is frustrating, cause I know he's gonna be a pain in the yanks asses for a long time

[Coco's Disciples]

Yup, you're not allowed to ever refute what I say. That's totally what I said, slave!

Man, I wish I listened to Rush Limbaugh so I could fit in... :(

Awesome. When you're on a message board, expect to be responded to. It's not a personal grudge, it's discussion/debate.

[BSN07]

And the fall of Dutchy begins. It's a slippery slope mate, get a grip while you can.

You can't come in here and make a statement that is false and not expect people to call you on it. We have all tried, and we have all failed. Don't get personal. People aren't attacking you. The stats showed your claim to be false. Someone just decided to tell you. Be thankful CD is correcting you, it could be Gom.

[Dojji]

Can we be clear about one thing though?

Daniel Bard is a match for Chamberlain in the stuff department. He's a little behind on command but that can develop, and he's miles ahead on mechanics and body type. In other words, it's reasonable to compare Chamberlain and Bard.

Bard also wipes the floor with Chamberlain in the attitude department, for whatever that's worth.

Also, one other thing, Duchy does have a point about FIP. While also being extremely talented, Chamberlain got away with a lot of stuff that year, and there were some times when Rivera bailed him out. I don't think you can look just at ERA and say that Chamberlain's debut season was more impressive than Bard's. Especially since Bard is going to pitch more over a longer period than Chamberlain did, and he's probably going to earn his way into a setup role over more talented pitchers than the Yankees had to work with in '07, which should be more impressive to those keeping score. Also we don't have to mollycoddle our guy. There's no "Bard Rules." Bard just rules, and will come in whenever you need him. That consideration should at least be a tiebreaker with all else equal.

[Dipre]

Daniel Bard is a match for Chamberlain in the stuff department.

Actually one might contend that Bard has better stuff.

Three-digit cheese plus that slider is a recipe for hitter frustration.

[Spudboy]

Actually one might contend that Bard has better stuff.

Three-digit cheese plus that slider is a recipe for hitter frustration.

Plus he's just fun to watch.

He'll no doubt have some troubles. But he has great stuff and wants to compete.

[Dojji]

More impressive than 3 digit cheese is the easy 98 IMHO. It's just so rare to see him thwo a fastball less than 97 or so. A lot of pitchers can touch the high 90's and sniff 100 but not a lot of pitchers can really live there like Bard does.

[Dipre]

More impressive than 3 digit cheese is the easy 98 IMHO. It's just so rare to see him thwo a fastball less than 97 or so. A lot of pitchers can touch the high 90's and sniff 100 but not a lot of pitchers can really live there like Bard does.

The reason is simple, Bard's mechanics are nearly flawless.

His delivery is easy and repeatable, and his arm slot easy to find, helping him maintain his stuff better when he's tired, if he had a high-maintenance delivery like Joba, he might throw 103.

[BoSox21]

He's got incredible stuff but it's irrelevant unless he can harness his stuff to develop into a consistent reliever. No walks in his last 8.2 IP is a very nice sign though.

[Dojji]

Not too worried about a few walks. Guy's a rook. I'd be more surprised if he wasn't walking people.

As long as he can throw a strike when he really needs one, a bit of "effective wildness" helps a power pitcher.

[BoSox21]

soon enough, he's gonna get to the point where hitters have made adjustments to him. ill temper my opinion on Bard once I see how he counteracts those adjustments

[Dipre]

soon enough, he's gonna get to the point where hitters have made adjustments to him. ill temper my opinion on Bard once I see how he counteracts those adjustments

He has the stuff and the attitude to adjust though.

[BoSox21]

Yea, he has fantastic stuff but where are these claims that he has a great attitude coming from? he may for all I know but he hasn't really faced any adversity I guess since he really turned it on in the minors last season. But I've always believed that the biggest challenge a young pitcher faces is how they deal with the fact that opposing hitters start to read the book on him. Don't get me wrong though, I'm playing devil's advocate more than anything here and I'm very optimistic about his ability to become a dominant reliever. Just trying to keep a little reality here.

[Dipre]

Yea, he has fantastic stuff but where are these claims that he has a great attitude coming from? he may for all I know but he hasn't really faced any adversity I guess since he really turned it on in the minors last season. But I've always believed that the biggest challenge a young pitcher faces is how they deal with the fact that opposing hitters start to read the book on him.

The "attitude" i refer to comes mostly from literature, of course.

But from what i've seen from the kid, and this is just an opinion, he looks very collected in the mound, and cold blood is important for any reliever, not just closers.

[Dojji]

he also bounced back nicely from being screwed over by his team when we tweaked his delivery in '07 and nearly made a Greinke level headcase out of him.

[BoSox21]

But from what i've seen from the kid, and this is just an opinion, he looks very collected in the mound, and cold blood is important for any reliever, not just closers.

Fine but up until very recently, he's only pitched garbage time innings

[Dojji]

How recently is "very recently" to you? I mean, the kid has a save from back in June.

[BoSox21]

How recently is "very recently" to you? I mean, the kid has a save from back in June.

he was the last guy out in a 13-inning game that Paps wasnt available in...

[TheKilo]

I believe Daniel Bard has proved he is a better reliever than Justin Masterson. Clay Buchholz has more upside and is ready to explode in a starter role. Now the question is what to do with Masterson?

I think he is too good as a long-reliever type but not sure he is good enough to be in the Red Sox rotation. I wonder what he could net the Sox in a trade this offseason?

SSS

[Dipre]

SSS

Funny.

You just disrespected your own sig.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

The reason is simple, Bard's mechanics are nearly flawless.

His delivery is easy and repeatable, and his arm slot easy to find, helping him maintain his stuff better when he's tired, if he had a high-maintenance delivery like Joba, he might throw 103.

It's important to remember this comment for one simple reason: sometimes the minor league stats don't tell the whole story.

Back when Bard was getting destroyed in A-ball some chose to believe his mechanics were a mess. It takes time for some players to have their mechanics broken down and re-established. Had Daniel Bard continued to pitch in A-ball the way he did in college you would probably have seen more respectable numbers. However, by changing his arm slot he has developed the slider he required to get MLB-caliber players out. He was never able to get the changeup needed to be a starter but thats alright...not everyone was meant to be a starter.

Sometimes you need to step back before you step forward.

[Dipre]

It's important to remember this comment for one simple reason: sometimes the minor league stats don't tell the whole story.

Back when Bard was getting destroyed in A-ball some chose to believe his mechanics were a mess. It takes time for some players to have their mechanics broken down and re-established. Had Daniel Bard continued to pitch in A-ball the way he did in college you would probably have seen more respectable numbers. However, by changing his arm slot he has developed the slider he required to get MLB-caliber players out. He was never able to get the changeup needed to be a starter but thats alright...not everyone was meant to be a starter.

Sometimes you need to step back before you step forward.

Bard's mechanics as a whole were always solid, what they tinkered with was the arm slot, and there's nothing more difficult for a pitcher than adopting a new arm slot.

[Dutchy]

well, last yr Joba was hurt and was yo-yo'd between starting and relieving. Here's the thing. Joba is still new to this role and he's going to get better. Bard cannot start. The sox have learned that lesson with his embarassing debut in low A where he got hit hard and walked 9-10 per 9IP. I will assure you that Joba in the pen would be more dominant than Bard. That being said, watching Bard is frustrating, cause I know he's gonna be a pain in the yanks asses for a long time

Joba's never been more dominant than Bard in the majors, in the pen or as a starter. And don't try to argue me with ERA, you make fun of other posters when they use ERA to prove you wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

Joba's never been more dominant than Bard in the majors, in the pen or as a starter. And don't try to argue me with ERA, you make fun of other posters when they use ERA to prove you wrong.


Joba
2007- 19G 24IP 12H 1ER 34K 6BB

Bard
2009- 21G 26IP 17H 7ER 32K 10BB

Are you sick of being proven wrong? Joba had the lower ERA (0.38 to 2.42), the lower WHIP (0.75 to 1.04), the higher K/9 (12.8 to 11.1), the higher K/BB (5.6 to 3.2), and the lower BB/9IP (2.3 to 3.4).

[BSN07]

Joba's never been more dominant than Bard in the majors, in the pen or as a starter. And don't try to argue me with ERA, you make fun of other posters when they use ERA to prove you wrong.

Joba's 2007 tour out of the pen was disgusting. It was a mirror image of Papelbon's debut. Either you didn't watch him, or your just trying to bait Jacko.

Joba was lights out out of the pen for those couple months. To deny this is plainly absurd.

Me personally, if given the choice I would have Joba in the set up role, and waiting to take over for Mo. Albeit I see the argument for him as a SP as well.

[BoSox21]

very very difficult to argue that Bard is better than Joba ever was....difficult because its untrue

[Dojji]

That said, Joba got incredibly lucky in '07 as well as putting up dominating numbers.

.246 BABIP? 96.6% LOB? These numbers make Joba look hella better than he really was that year. And don't try to tell me that that was excellent Yankees' defense. Chamberlain's 2007 debut was a flat out statistical fluke, the only numbers he claims full marks for that year are his K/bb rates./

[BSN07]

That said, Joba got incredibly lucky in '07 as well as putting up dominating numbers.

.246 BABIP? 96.6% LOB? These numbers make Joba look hella better than he really was that year. And don't try to tell me that that was excellent Yankees' defense. Chamberlain's 2007 debut was a flat out statistical fluke, the only numbers he claims full marks for that year are his K/bb rates./

His ability to K batters at almost will bailed him out of some sticky situations.

[Dojji]

At a rate that is unsustainable even for the most dominant pitchers.

I'm not saying there wasn't a good performance behind it but those numbers are not just the result of good performance.

[BoSox21]

why exactly is BABIP always attributed to luck? I understand Joba is a strikeout pitcher but good pitchers are expected to have the ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat and force weak grounders or shallow flies as well.

[Dipre]

why exactly is BABIP always attributed to luck? I understand Joba is a strikeout pitcher but good pitchers are expected to have the ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat and force weak grounders or shallow flies as well.

Still, there's only so much "avoiding the sweet spot" will counteract.

There's a league average for BABIP, i'll give you that, meaning that both sucky and good pitchers are included.

However, anything under .250 is cheer luck, because in Pedro's 1999 season, he had a .270+ BABIP, and he was a hell of a pitcher, so yes, BABIP has quite a measure of luck to it, and it can make or break a pitcher's season if it doesn't even out.

[Dojji]

why exactly is BABIP always attributed to luck? I understand Joba is a strikeout pitcher but good pitchers are expected to have the ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat and force weak grounders or shallow flies as well.

To what DipreG said, I'd just like to add that defense is a factor in BABIP, since it's basically 1-DER. The variability and difficulty in predicting and projecting defense is a large part of the supposed "luck" factor.

But this is pretty clear cut luck. The Yankee defense is NOT good enough that even if we get a steady diet of cheap flies and ground balls, they'll haul more than three quarters of them in. There just isn't the range on that team for that level of performance to be reasonable, especially when Chien Ming Wang's ERA as a pitcher whose whole identity was built around weak contact, sports a .290 median BABIP.

[diony]

That said, Joba got incredibly lucky in '07 as well as putting up dominating numbers.

.246 BABIP? 96.6% LOB? These numbers make Joba look hella better than he really was that year. And don't try to tell me that that was excellent Yankees' defense. Chamberlain's 2007 debut was a flat out statistical fluke, the only numbers he claims full marks for that year are his K/bb rates./

He had a 0.38 ERA, what did you expect?

[jacksonianmarch]

his peripherals outside of the ERA were ridiculous as well.

[Dojji]

his peripherals outside of the ERA were ridiculous as well.

Sure, not arguing that, but the point stands that there's a huge luck factor to Joba's 2007 performance.