PDA

View Full Version : Cleveland Indians Scouting Report



Gom
10-01-2007, 12:25 PM
ESPN Insider's Keith Law and his scouting report on the Indians. Enjoy.

Cleveland came close to the playoffs two years ago with many of the same stars on the current roster, but a revamped bullpen and a couple of newcomers have made them stronger and deeper than the 2005 squad that just missed. This year's crew features a deep roster where almost everyone contributes in one significant area, and their two-headed monster at the top of their rotation will make them very tough to beat in a short series.

What's remarkable about this club is how it was built. Of the nine regular everyday hitters, only Ryan Garko was drafted and developed by Cleveland; three were free agent signees in Latin America, four came via trade, and Casey Blake was signed as a minor league free agent. Starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia is the only one of their four regular starters who was drafted and developed by Cleveland, and Jensen Lewis is the only Cleveland draftee among their six primary relievers. Despite a reputation for process, their drafts haven't produced many big leaguers for them; the trades of Bartolo Colon and Einar Diaz and the team's work in Latin America are the major reasons they're headed to the postseason.

How They'll Win
• Two wins behind C.C. Sabathia and one or two behind Fausto Carmona are the easiest formula for a series win for Cleveland.

• Their deep, patient lineup will score a few runs early but will use their discipline to get opposing starters out of games early.

• Close games in the late innings will give Cleveland an opportunity to use their three-man setup corps to shut opponents down in the seventh and eighth innings.
Strengths
Cleveland actually enters the postseason with the fewest runs scored of any AL playoff team, although some of that is due to players who are no longer playing every day, including Trot Nixon, David Dellucci and Josh Barfield. Their lineup as currently assembled is deep in power with five hitters at 20 or more homers, and Franklin Gutierrez at 13 in under a half-season's worth of at-bats. Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore are particularly dangerous, as both are very patient hitters with plus power; Hafner's power output was down this year, in part due to an assortment of aches and pains, but the raw power is still there. Garko isn't far behind, although he has a long swing and will chase hard stuff out of the zone, especially up high or down and in. Cleveland's hitters are also disciplined; they're one of the two best teams in baseball (along with Boston) at working the count, seeing just under four pitchers per plate appearance, running up opposing pitchers' workloads and giving them a chance to hit against weaker middle relievers.

Their front two starters are also a tremendous strength, with Sabathia, the probable AL Cy Young Award winner, followed by Fausto Carmona. Sabathia is a classic power left-hander, with a 92-95 mph fastball and a toxic 80-82 mph curveball with a very sharp two-plane break. He's a rarity in today's game in that he uses the high fastball as an out pitch, working up and away to right-handed batters when he gets ahead and getting a lot of swings and misses. With those two pitches and a changeup that flashes plus, he's very tough to beat when he's getting ahead in the count -- and he's not easy to beat any other time, either.

How They'll Lose
• Joe Borowski is the most likely postseason closer to blow a save, and the back end of the Cleveland bullpen behind their top three relievers are also a threat to let a close game get out of hand.

• Carmona, Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook all rely heavily on the team's defense, which isn't a strong point, and too many balls in play could easily lead to too many hits behind any or all of these arms.

• Despite their patience, Cleveland does have several hitters who'll chase stuff out of the zone, including Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Garko, and an opposing pitcher with command and a good pitching plan -- get ahead with hard stuff and then work out of the zone -- will give Cleveland trouble.
Carmona's emergence this year was one of the season's biggest surprises, especially given his struggles in relief last year for Cleveland. He works primarily off of a 93-95 mph heavy sinker, leading all AL starters with a 77-percent groundball percentage, but also gets swings and misses on his fastball, complementing it with a hard mid-80s slider. Their likely third starter in the playoffs, Paul Byrd, has marginal stuff and lacks a real out pitch, but survives by throwing strike after strike (just 25 unintentional walks this year in over 180 innings); his susceptibility to contact makes him a shaky bet against the better offenses he'll face in the postseason, meaning that winning games behind the big two is extremely important for Cleveland.

Cleveland also boasts the strongest middle relief corps of any playoff team. While their closer, Joe Borowski, is ordinary at best, the men who get the ball from the starter to Borowski are outstanding, led by the two Rafaels, Betancourt and Perez. Betancourt -- one of the first players suspended for using a performance-enhancing drug -- has outstanding control and a lot of deception in his delivery, but also has a solid-average fastball at 90-93 mph that he commands well. He occasionally mixes in a slider, but really works off the heater, moving it around the zone and getting swings and misses, even in the upper half of the zone. Perez didn't even come up to the majors for good until May 29, but he's become their primary lefty out of the pen. He shuts down lefties with an average fastball with late life and good run, and a plus slider at 84-85 mph with a big, sharp break down and away from lefties. Because he can also throw it at a right-handed hitter's back foot and he commands his fastball, he's effective against righties and doesn't fall into the specialist bin. Joining those two is Lewis, a recent callup who works very quickly with average stuff but who has excellent command and control and a somewhat herky-jerk delivery that makes it hard to pick the ball up. All three are strike-throwers and all three go after hitters aggressively.

Question Marks
• Can Joe Borowski be trusted with a small lead in the ninth inning against one of the best offenses in baseball?

• Will the shaky gloves of Jhonny Peralta, Victor Martinez, and Ryan Garko cost Cleveland games, or can the team give Wedge the leads he'll want before he uses defensive replacements?

• Can Travis Hafner hold his body together to give Cleveland a big power boost in the middle of their lineup?
Weaknesses
Cleveland's biggest weakness is its defense, which isn't a surprise for a team that has favored offense both in its player-acquisition and in its roster-construction strategies. Their typical lineup has below-average defenders at shortstop, both infield corners and behind the plate. Their best defender, Asdrubal Cabrera, is playing out of position at second base, and their best defensive center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, mostly plays right. Jhonny Peralta is a particular problem at shortstop, as he has limited range and doesn't have the soft hands a good shortstop needs. He also plays with a decided lack of urgency, which might work on a daily basis but often leads to mistakes, especially in tight spots. Kenny Lofton has good range in left, but has one of the weakest outfield arms in the big leagues. Since Cleveland only features one starter who racks up large strikeout totals, converting balls in play into outs is critical for their other starters to hold good opposing offenses down, and they're not well-equipped to do that.

The aforementioned Borowski is their other Achilles' heel. Borowski has 41 saves, but he also has a 5.23 ERA, the highest of any major league pitcher with more than three saves this year. He works with an 88-89 mph fastball with little movement and a soft-breaking slider, neither of which is going to miss many bats when he's facing the best lineups in the league. He's also homer-prone, due to his fringe-average stuff and tendency to work up in the zone. Manager Eric Wedge would do well to forget about the save rule in October and focus on getting the right guy in the game to get the next few batters out, and in some ninth-inning situations, that won't be Borowski.