It’s the time of year when everything starts to Bloom.
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It’s the time of year when everything starts to Bloom.
I'm not in favor of signing an old, expensive pitcher. Scherzer has a tired, dead arm and can't start with his club facing elimination. He won't be any younger a year from now.
Meanwhile, pre- primetimers like Vlad and Wander will be even better next season. Stop-gaps won't stop them. The best way for the Red Sox to compete with that kind of talent is to develop their own (including adding players to the system via trades). Bloom could go out and sign this year's version of Teixeira, CC and AJ -- Crankee trivia; see NY's last ring (before my son was born) -- and the Sox still may not get as far as they did this year.
I prefer dealing for a guy like Berrios -- someone 20-something, with upside, under control. Where are the candidates? Astute posters are already pointing to Oakland, Colorado and Miami...
I don't have the time to look into possible trade scenarios and free agent signings like many of you do.
I trust Bloom. I agree with his philosophy. That's enough for me.
It's going to be another interesting one. But once again we better be prepared to be patient. Bloom is not exactly a rapid-fire wheeler-dealer.
What I want and what Bloom will do are two different things.....I trust Bloom. I really don't know much.
You start with what you have and make improvements.
C Vaz (no reason to think we won't pick up his option)
1B Dalbec (he has potential plus he's back up options for Devers, Casas and DH)
2B Arroyo (we may look to upgrade this position and make him a utility player)
SS Xander
3B Devers
LF Verdugo
CF Kike
RF Renfroe (he was a bargain at $3M)
DH JD
We'll know shortly after the World Series, what JD will do. Not too much concern here. If he opts out, we have $22M to play with. Next DH won't be that expensive.
SP Sale
SP Eovaldi
SP Pivetta
SP ????
SP ????
Again we'll know shortly the fate of E Rod.
Pen
Barnes (yep, we're stuck with him after giving him a $5M raise, his trade value is all time low)
Whitlock
Houck
Brasier
Darwinzon
Taylor
Sawamura
Valdez (?)
The bullpen may take work especially if one or two are moved to starter status
Is this lineup (assuming JD returns and E Rod stays) good enough to win the Division? We were 8 back. Probably not.
Pluses
We'll have Sale for entire year and he maybe improving.
I would expect Pivetta to continue to get better.
Eovaldi has become a pitcher, not just a guy that throws 100mph.
Minuses
Barnes falling off the ridge.
Not sure if defense can improve.
Nice summary.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick
I'm not sure I have ever seen an off season where just about all our free agents to be are additions by subtractions or close to it.
ERod is good, but at $18.5M (QO), there are likely pitchers similar to him that can be signed.
Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.
As you pointed out, if JD opts out, we have $22M cleared from the lux tax ($19.4M in actual salary.)
A lot depends on what Bloom's winter budget is, what the new tax laws are going to be, and how Bloom spends the budget. It should be pointed out that Bloom swung and missed with a big chunk of his winter signings, last year, and a bigger budget does not mean he'll do better. He actually did worse with his biggest signings and additions:
$10M Richards
$8M Ottavino
$7M x 2 Kike (Great deal)
$6M Perez
$3M Marwin
$3M Andriese
$3M Renfroe (Great deal)
$2M Santana
$1.5M Sawamura (OK deal)
Something like ('21 salaries, in millions): Wisler $2 + Kittredge $1.5 + Anderson $1 + Fairbanks $.5 + Rasmussen $.5 + Feyereisen $.5 + Thompson $.5 + Chargois $.5 + Flemming $.5...Quote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
It's hard to acquire guys like that via trade an impossible via free agency.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
All at once, yes... but a couple this year, then swap one for a couple more next year, then the next, and before you know it: you win 100 games and finish first without any full-time starting pitchers...Quote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
But that's just one method of bullpen-building. It can help you throw a shutout in the opener of the ALDS, but you also risk getting your doors blown in three straight when an opponent with a stacked line-up exploits a weak reliever or two who just aren't on in each day's endless parade to the mound.
Keeping both J.D. and Schwarber , while a bit redundant, could be a good idea if the Sox are willing to spend what it takes to do it. But the main task this off season has to be improving the pitching, especially the bullpen. In today's game , having a strong and reliable bullpen is absolutely vital.
We may get to the point we don't even talk about starting rotations and bullpens any more, just pitching staffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by dgalehouse
Boy watching some of these post season games.. it sure seems to be heading in that direction. You get three innings from your table setter aka opener and then mix and match for six innings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
Yeah, gone are the days when you thought the goal was to knock out the starter early so you could get into the crappy part of their bullpen.Quote:
Originally Posted by YastrzemskI
Agreed, and Bloom has not done all that well finding RP'er gems in the rough, so far.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
He's gone through a lot since 2020 --49 total, including a few everyday players doing mop up duty.
40 with more than 2 IP in relief 2020-2021:
Barnes
Whitlock
Valdez
Ottavino
Taylor
Sawamura
DHern
Andriese
Brasier
Brice
Weber
Workman
Richards
Robles
Rios
Springs
Under 20 IP
Davis
Covey
Perez
Osich
Stock
Walden
Brewer
Houck
Under 10
Henbree
Kickham
Mazza
Hall
Feliz
Gonsalves
Tapia
Godley
Triggs
Leyer
Schreiber
Bazardo
Brennan
Peacock
Espinal
Hart
If starters only go 18 batters, maybe they can go back to 4 man rotations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
Teams can have 8 -4 inning men and 5 short relief guys.
Possible Help from the Farm per Sox Prospects
Position Players
2022
1B Casas
OF Duran
SS Downs
C Wong
2023
C Hernandez
2024
SS Mayer
2B Yorke
3B Blaze
OF Jimenez
Pitchers
2022
Seabold
Winchowski
2023
Bello
Groome
Matta
Murphy
Walter
Ward
2024
Song
8 starters and 5 closers...that works for me....Quote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
With the need for 7-8 traditional "starters" to cover a 162 game season , and shortage of effective pitchers who can go 6-7 innings, the transition to pitching staffs with 2-3 inning guys (Houck; Whitlock ?) and bullpen games using a planned 5-6 pitchers is already well under way.
The analytic stats about the 3rd time through a lineup, along with the requirement to be hard throwing 94-98mph throwers, and prevalence of TJ surgery dictates a change in how to manage pitching. You won't see playoff intense pitching decisions but you will see a departure from old school Ace--#5 staffs.
Good points....Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasbob
I'm also wondering if teams are factoring in the cost of traditional starting pitchers.....
Has nothing to do with anything but I read in a Tampa paper indicating 3 starters that were used against the Sox lacked major league experience (very little that is)....that they were all newbies if you well. Feeling is they are all good pitchers and will be a factor in 2022. I'm wondering if the owners are beginning to question G Cole type signings. It's scary to think the Yankees have eight or nine more years at $36M per for Cole (that's $10M+ more than Sale).....if they can win couple of World Series then maybe it would have been worth it.
Bottom line is they need to upgrade the team. G Cole alone will not get them to the Promise Land.
If starters all start going just 3-4 innings, we will need more long men who can go 3-4 innings, so yes, basically 8 "starter/longmen."Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick
Question for you Moon
Are we destine to be that wait for that big inning team? I don't know if we can manufacture runs. Most frustrating thing at Fenway is three singles will not guaranty a run. I don't know if there are any stats out there for percentage of run scored from second on a single but I'm sure we're at the bottom, having to play half of our games at Fenway.
Just not sure what our 'identity' should be going forward.
To Cora's credit, he went with long relievers--Valdez, Whitlock, and Houck--before the postseason. Your fundamental point, however, is correct. Forget starters and relievers. Think longers, shorters, and bridgers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
The problem is when one of your 4 inning guys get shelled and can only go 1-2 innings. Can another guy go on 3 days rest? Do you need 10 guys that can go 3-4? That doesn't leave any room for 1 inning guys.
Red Sox’s impressive assets should have Yankees very concerned NY Post...make the Yankee fans worry....
1 and 2 (tie). Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers
3. Alex Cora
4. Garrett Whitlock
5. Chaim Bloom
Top 10 - the offseason playlist (pre Halloween)
1.) we issue Rodriguez a q.o. And he does not take it.
2.) Martinez does not opt out.
3.) we pick up the Vazquez option.
4.) we sign chris Taylor in free agency.
5.) we trade Duran and two minor league pitchers to Oakland for manea.
6.) arizona does not pick up the option on Merrill Kelly and we sign him.
7.) we do not pick up the options on Perez and Richards.
8.) we sign two relievers this offseason, just don’t know who yet.
9.) we acquire an unknown closer.
10.) hang’em Chaim publicly apologizes fir bungling the Benintendi trade!
Book your 2022 World Series reservations now.
The Beni trade is far from over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Cook
It was two years of Beni control, and with the money saved, we got Renfroe and Sawamura.
Win-win, and that's before what we see on any of the 4 prospects.
Great season .
Wish list
1 extend Devers
2 extend Kike
3trade Xander
4 trade JDM supplemented If needed
5 trade Bobby .
6Sign Kyle
7sign Bryant
8Sign Marcus Semien
9Trade Duran
10 trade Renfroe
11.Sign Izzy
12trade Arroyo or release
13Promote Casas
14 sign Ray
15Sign Verlander
16 transition Whit to starter
17 trade Barnes supplemented
18 Houck to compete for closer .
19 if no verlander look for Thor .
20 jettison Perez Erod Richards Darwinzon sawamura
21Keep Pivetta in Pen
22Keep Robles
I know this is an insane list but I’d be happy for a few of these to come to fruition.The Farm is pretty decent will surely help either in player acquisitions now or supplement what we have
What exactly happened to Barnes? Did I miss the announcement where the Red Sox said why he wasn't used down the stretch and was left off the ALCS roster? Sore arm? Covid side-effects? Seriously, even if there were mental health issues, you'd think someone in the media would have inquired in an interview with Cora or Bloom this month... unless they all know and are keeping it quiet...
The reason a team's All-Star closer was unavailable in the playoffs is news that at least the national media would report. Did any players or coaches ever talk about it?
At least Devers now admits that he was injured. Maybe we won't find out about Barnes until someday soon when the PR dept. subtly issues a press release about an operation.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/10...-stars-future/Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red...ry-late-season
Blame it on a pepper...Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red...ry-late-season
If this is indeed Accurate ? That’s his Rutter folks without the Rutter you have zero control. I would like to strike my trade Matt Until further evaluation in spring .....ouch and ouch for this years team.My my what could have been .ShiiiiiitQuote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
I remember reading that, but then they activated him and Barnes pitched an inning in the ALDS. I just found it odd that never during the many shaky Red Sox playoff relief outings -- including their first two losses to Houston -- did any uniformed personnel publicly lament missing their All-Star closer. Maybe it was because of his performance in the second half?Quote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
Btw: Barnes leads the AL in blown saves the past three years with 18. Ottavino is second with 16. Liam Hendriks is next with 14, followed by Taylor Rogers 12, then Chapman and four others with 11.
For what it's worth: Hendriks leads the AL with 77 saves in that span, and Chapman is second with 70. Barnes is 10th with 37, one behind Hansel Robles (and his 8 blown saves).
So, from 2019-2021, Barnes has 37 saves with 18 blown saves... For those pining for Rasiel Iglesias in '22: 34 saves with only 5 blown saves the last three years.
Yikes yeah we can do better that Matt .But how does that look like ? Demote him to low leverage ?or trade to a team like the Rockies or Marlins with The thought of less pressure cooker City ? I’d atleast start calling these type teams .Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
He just signed a multimillion dollar deal. One would think he could afford freakin’ Door Dash!!Quote:
Originally Posted by moonslav59
A little misleading. And by “a little” I mean “very”.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
In the last 3 seasons, Rasiel Iglesias has 13 blown saves per Fangraphs. He also has 76 saves. Were you looking at AL only? Iglesias’ 34 saves / 5 blown saves represent his totals from 2021 alone.
Also worth noting, unlike everyone else in this post, Barnes was not a full time closer for the last 3 seasons. You can only get a save if you pitch the last inning; you can get a blown save in any inning after the 5th. Barnes has 30 holds in that stretch and Iglesias has 5.
So really, Barnes has 67 saves plus holds to 18 blown saves. Iglesias has 81 saves plus holds to 13 blown saves. That certainly narrows the gap between the two..
The numbers posted were straight from bb-ref's Stathead for saves and blown saves AL 2019-21. Barnes was certainly the Red Sox closer the past two seasons, and briefly in 2019, when he began as Cora's go-to in any high leverage relief inning before inconsistencies plagued him after only two months.Quote:
Originally Posted by notin
I could care less about Rasiel, and just added his stats for perspective since his name has been coming up here. But I'd take his 76 saves vs. 13 blown over a guy who blows the lead in 50% of his outings (whenever he enters the game).
I get the point about the terminology, but wasn't personally trying to mislead. The stat sites label them "saves" and "blown saves", but there are no "let-go's" to counter "holds".
Barnes does not blow the lead in half his games.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
As we've said here numerous times, it's a big problem with those stats.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
"Let-go's" isn't bad, though.
You're still tying to mislead. Even if you use your old numbers, 37 saves and 18 blown saves is closer to 30%. But a lot of his blown saves were really "blown holds," but no stat sites differentiate between the two. As Barnes spent most of 2018 pitching in situations where he was not going to get a save but was able to get a blown save, the overall statement is misleading.Quote:
Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
Iglesias did do better than Barnes, blowing 14% of all save/hold opportunities. But Barnes actually rate was 24% of all save/hold chances blown. Less than the 32% if you only look at saves, and certainly less than the 50% which is just flat out wrong no matter how you look at it.
Of course, there are other aspects that are incorrect, too. 1) How many blown saves did the Sox still win? Blown saves are not all losses, after all. And how many were blown saves where Barnes did nothing wrong? Coming in with the tying run on third and no one out and giving up a sac fly is a blown save, but is it really the fault of the pitcher getting the blown save?
This year, Barnes had 30 saves and 6 BSs. 24/30. He had no "holds." (33% IRS)
2020: 9 Saves and 4 BS (4 holds) 13 SV+Hold/17. 0% IRS.
2019: 4 Saves and 8 BS (26 holds) 30 Sv + Holds/38. 25% IRS.
2018: 0 Sv and 3 BS. (25 Holds) 25 Sv + Holds/28. 7% IRS
2017: 1 Sv and 2 BS (21 Holds) 22 SV+Holds/24. 17% IRS
Last 5 years:
44 saves
23 BS
76 Holds
120 Sv + Holds out of 143.
That's 84% of the time holding or saving the games he played in since 2017 and entered with a lead or tie.