A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

I'm ready for anything in the winter meetings, including major moves by Boston or slight tweaks by Boston. But there are some scenarios I view as highly unlikely:

1. I just can't see a new GM/Lord of Baseball Ops NOT making a sincere effort to make his team better in his first season at the helm.

2. I just can't see the old owners NOT agreeing to do whatever it takes to get their team back to contender status, and that includes hanging with the big boys.

3. I just can't see the Sox trading Mookie Betts for anybodies that won't improve the team -- for the coming year and the future.... so that means either a deal that nets a haul of MLB-ready prospects or established All-Star-caliber talent -- in other words, an overpay from one club that's going all in for one year.

4. I agree the latter is unlikely, but absolutely, positively cannot see Bloom, Henry et. all, swapping Betts for any warm body -- just a notch beyond a draft pick -- or using him as the salary-dumped guy to get below a tax number (So... apologies to reset fans, but no apology to Yankee fans pretending to offer constructive rebuild advice who are secretly hoping and praying their arch rivals will make the worst decision since Babe Ruth and jettison their best all-around homegrown superstar about-to-enter-his-prime future Hall of Famer in half a century).

IF there is a blockbuster, I predict it may include another starting position player and even a "star", along with a high-priced pitcher -- but the return, along with someone else's salary dump, will bring legitimate talent back. Because 2020 will not be a bridge year, since the Nation will not accept that.

[Swiharts Ghost]

MLBTR...

Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.

Sounds very promising.Love this news .

[Tedballgame]

Just read where the Sox are interested in Porcello. I like him but he would have to take a huge pay cut to come back. He loves pitching in Boston and answers the bell each time. More than I can say for Price.

[Tedballgame]

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

Cole=Ed Whitson=Kevin Brown=Sonny Gray

[notin]

Cole=Ed Whitson=Kevin Brown=Sonny Gray

I think Cole might be good for one or two years, but then his salary and performance will force some harsh decisions for his new team...

[Tedballgame]

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

Yeah, its been 10 years since they won anything. What a drought. They need to do something to keep their pathetic fans happy. They still won't win, with Cole. Houston had a better team the last two years, had Cole, and didn't win.

[Nick]

6) We will waste our time talking about Mookie Betts

As they attempt to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, the Red Sox are going to try like heck to unload some payroll obligations by moving David Price (three years, $96 million remaining) or Nathan Eovaldi (three years, $51 million) in the right deal, and, of the two, Eovaldi is more likely to move. It also sure feels like Jackie Bradley Jr., who will likely make eight figures in his last round of arbitration, could go.

What will definitely happen at the Winter Meetings, though, is a lot more public Betts discussion than is necessary. His trade market is too limited by his projected arbitration salary and his proximity to free agency (next winter). The payroll goal is not so pressing that it should compel Boston to make a bad baseball trade.

Per MLB

[jacksonianmarch]

Cole will certainly make you an instant top contender. I'm just hoping for the biggest and longest deal in history, so you guys will be firmly in the boat we were in 4 years ago with a certain cliff on the horizon after this window closes.

I do not think the Sox have a better chance at winning a ring in the next 2-3 years, assuming you guys sign an ace, but I would not bet against us in the next decade.

If we decimate our farm in the next 3-4 years, then I’ll agree with you on a cliff. It’s a two step process. Sell the farm. Spend all the money. We are heading towards the latter, mostly because Cash has been reticent to do the former

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, its been 10 years since they won anything. What a drought. They need to do something to keep their pathetic fans happy. They still won't win, with Cole. Houston had a better team the last two years, had Cole, and didn't win.

I bet you’re the kind of troll who is going to hide if the yanks win a World Series, aren’t you?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Cole might be good for one or two years, but then his salary and performance will force some harsh decisions for his new team...

He’s 29 without big injury history. A deal like this is one you hope for 3-4 years of top level performance

[moonslav59]

If we decimate our farm in the next 3-4 years, then I’ll agree with you on a cliff. It’s a two step process. Sell the farm. Spend all the money. We are heading towards the latter, mostly because Cash has been reticent to do the former

It will be hard to keep your farm this good. It's already started declining as players are called up.

Winning brings worse draft picks. Spending large limits IFA signings.

Yes, it helps to have some good prospects already in the system to infuse some low cost help in the next 2-4 years, but the well will eventually run dry, and my guess is, when it looks like you have a great chance at winning a ring, you'll make a couple trades of prospects for that one or tow pieces you feel you need to put you over the top.

It's a pattern that just keeps repeating itself, despite the cliffs they cause.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Just read where the Sox are interested in Porcello. I like him but he would have to take a huge pay cut to come back. He loves pitching in Boston and answers the bell each time. More than I can say for Price.

Over-Price(d)? Granted, three straight great outings in the October 2018 wiped out some previous brutal postseason starts...

But if my quick division is correct, based on an average salary of $30 million per year, here is what Boston has paid for in the first four regular seasons of his current contract (based on regular season averages from baseball-ref):

$49,019 dollars per batter faced; $204,081 dollars per inning pitched; $1.25 Million dollars per start; $2.5 Million dollars per win.

[notin]

He’s 29 without big injury history. A deal like this is one you hope for 3-4 years of top level performance

Yeah but it only takes one sour pitch to go from “no injury history” to “significant injury history”.

If he had a few injuries, the Yankees might be better off because the commitment wouldn’t be such an investment. Unless they hire Dombrowski to negotiate this deal..,

[Swiharts Ghost]

Maybe we are hoodwinking the league and are going to 350 million

[Tedballgame]

I bet you’re the kind of troll who is going to hide if the yanks win a World Series, aren’t you?

You mean like you did after the Sox beat the Yankees in the playoffs last year? I don't have to worry about hiding because the Yankees aren't going to be winning anything for a long time. Chokers!