Yankees 2021 Season Thread

[moonslav59]

Pivetta is on the hill tonight against the Angels, who may get Rendon back tonight. Will he "crashing and burning" tonight? Or maybe next week in Dunedin?

For the most part I agree with your points though. I hope you're wrong, but it does seem like the starting pitching will let us down at some point

Wasn't Pivetta put on the COVID list for a reaction to the vaccine?

Is he starting, tonight?

[Thunder]

Wasn't Pivetta put on the COVID list for a reaction to the vaccine?

Is he starting, tonight?

Still on the schedule. On Wednesday's radio broadcast, they didn't seem too concerned. Just arm soreness and cold symptoms they said. Convenient way to call up an extra pitcher for the night, I suppose.

[jacksonianmarch]

I may end up wrong, for sure, and I have never doubted the value of Cole, so you don't have to act like I have.

Houck is no longer our #6: Whitlock is.

Richards is looking as good as Kluber, but the sample size is small for both. "Never been bad?" The guy was a top 20 pitcher way back, when healthy.

Really? 5 IP by Garcia in the minors is worth anything? Please, jacko. You know better.

Certainly, there is a significant chance Pivetta and Perez "crash and burn" or Eovaldi gets hurt or stumbles, but you seriously neglect the chances your 2-5 starters do, too, or at least your 3-5's.

Yes, Montgomery has put up a 2+WAR season, before, but so has Pivetta. Somehow you only twist the good for Yankee pitchers and the bad for Sox pitchers.

ERod is NOT pitching to his norm. His norm is better than this.
His WHIP is the highest, ever, and by quite a bit.
K rate lowest since '16

So, Sevarino is "ahead" of Sale. Too bad he's not as good.

It is entirely possible Eovaldi puts up a full season of good pitching.
It's entirely possible Pivetta finally does what many felt he could do all along.
It's entirely possible Perez has a decent year.
It's entirely possible Richards does as well as Kluber.
It's entirely possible ERod gets even better at age 28.
It's entirely possible Whitlock bites you guys in the ass.
It's entirely possible Sale is the great addition we need this summer.

The thing is, we may only need 3-4 of these 7 possibilities to happen, maybe less if many of your what ifs don't work out.

Like I said, I still think the Yanks are the faves. You have a better pen and a better ace. The rest is clearly up for debate.

FYI, I live for baseball banter, so this is awesome. Now it is time for me to argue.

Whitlock isn't a #6 right now when they're treating him like they just sewed his arm back on. They're upping his pitch count so slowly that he'll be ready to start by November, lol. Garcia had a good debut season last year and one meh MLB start this one. He is 21yrs old and both you and I know he has a long future in the bigs and is ready. While I do not think he comes out and dominates from the minors, I do think he can be solid as a replacement until Sevy comes back. Whitlock didnt make our 40 man roster if that tells you the kind of arms coming down the pipe here. They were wrong on him, clearly (Nick Nelson should have been DFAd) but the talent level on the bump is very, very high in the minors for the Yanks. Offense, not so much

I don't neglect the chances anyone gets hurt or crashes and burns, but I will take the guy with 2 Cy Youngs in his back pocket over a former Yankee who never stayed consistent or a guy who hasn't logged 80 innings in a season since Obama was in the white house. And for a guy who loves analytics, you really think Pivetta is going to continue as is and be solid? His expected FIP is a run and a half higher than his current ERA. That is not sustainable and you know it.

Also, for a guy who loves analytics, why the shade for Montgomery? The guy was solid in his rookie season, kills it out the gate in his sophomore season and blows his elbow out (2018). Misses all but 2 games of 19 rehabbing. Pitches highly guarded in 2020 (4.4IP per start by design) yet posts a very solid 3.65xFIP. Comes out in 2021 and is posting a nearly identical 3.73xFIP. He is the steady Eddy of the group who is far better than Perez as a back ender. German won 18 before and since coming back from a rapid demotion, has thrown to a 2.58ERA with 24K's and 4BB in 24IP. And the guy nobody seems to want to talk about is Taillon. His K rate has skyrocketed and his walk rate has been really good. Major issue is the HRs as he adapts to a 4 seamer pitcher. He has the most talent of the 2-5 on the Yanks and I think you are afraid that by the end of the season, he's killing it as our #2 or 3.

Then there is Kluber. Kluber is a former ace who has found his stuff after missing 2 years. First due to shit luck (hit by comebacker) then after his rehab he tears his teres. He is clearly healthy now, but had a rough first couple starts with his location. He is a painter, a guy who's location has been impeccable for his whole career and it's improving (6 walks in last 20.1IP vs 7 walks in first 10.1). Last time he had a walk rate over 2 in a full season was in 2016 and he's never had a full season with a walk rate above 2.5/9IP. The Yanks starters, also, didnt start off well. Cole was lights out, but Taillon, Kluber, and German sucked in their first 2-3 starts. They are settling down now and have turned the yanks rotation into one of the very best in the AL (2nd behind CWS). That isnt an accident.

[moonslav59]

FYI, I live for baseball banter, so this is awesome. Now it is time for me to argue.

Whitlock isn't a #6 right now when they're treating him like they just sewed his arm back on. They're upping his pitch count so slowly that he'll be ready to start by November, lol. Garcia had a good debut season last year and one meh MLB start this one. He is 21yrs old and both you and I know he has a long future in the bigs and is ready. While I do not think he comes out and dominates from the minors, I do think he can be solid as a replacement until Sevy comes back. Whitlock didnt make our 40 man roster if that tells you the kind of arms coming down the pipe here. They were wrong on him, clearly (Nick Nelson should have been DFAd) but the talent level on the bump is very, very high in the minors for the Yanks. Offense, not so much

I don't neglect the chances anyone gets hurt or crashes and burns, but I will take the guy with 2 Cy Youngs in his back pocket over a former Yankee who never stayed consistent or a guy who hasn't logged 80 innings in a season since Obama was in the white house. And for a guy who loves analytics, you really think Pivetta is going to continue as is and be solid? His expected FIP is a run and a half higher than his current ERA. That is not sustainable and you know it.

Also, for a guy who loves analytics, why the shade for Montgomery? The guy was solid in his rookie season, kills it out the gate in his sophomore season and blows his elbow out (2018). Misses all but 2 games of 19 rehabbing. Pitches highly guarded in 2020 (4.4IP per start by design) yet posts a very solid 3.65xFIP. Comes out in 2021 and is posting a nearly identical 3.73xFIP. He is the steady Eddy of the group who is far better than Perez as a back ender. German won 18 before and since coming back from a rapid demotion, has thrown to a 2.58ERA with 24K's and 4BB in 24IP. And the guy nobody seems to want to talk about is Taillon. His K rate has skyrocketed and his walk rate has been really good. Major issue is the HRs as he adapts to a 4 seamer pitcher. He has the most talent of the 2-5 on the Yanks and I think you are afraid that by the end of the season, he's killing it as our #2 or 3.

Then there is Kluber. Kluber is a former ace who has found his stuff after missing 2 years. First due to shit luck (hit by comebacker) then after his rehab he tears his teres. He is clearly healthy now, but had a rough first couple starts with his location. He is a painter, a guy who's location has been impeccable for his whole career and it's improving (6 walks in last 20.1IP vs 7 walks in first 10.1). Last time he had a walk rate over 2 in a full season was in 2016 and he's never had a full season with a walk rate above 2.5/9IP. The Yanks starters, also, didnt start off well. Cole was lights out, but Taillon, Kluber, and German sucked in their first 2-3 starts. They are settling down now and have turned the yanks rotation into one of the very best in the AL (2nd behind CWS). That isnt an accident.

I've never argued our 2-5 rotation is better than yours- only that it would not be a fluke if it ended up being better.

I was also very high on Pivetta before the year started. There are times when numbers don't tell a whole story of can not be good for projecting future production.

Certainly several of your SP'ers have some very nice aspects, but I would not be making definitive judgments based on 6-8 starts- not for Kluber, Richards or Pivetta. Kluber sure looks like he's rounding back into form, but it's just 7 starts.

I'm not projecting Pivetta to end up as our best starter, but I do think he can end up with some very nice #3 or 4 numbers. He could suck, too, as could just about any Yankee starter not named Cole. No, I don't "know" Pivetta can't sustain being good. This good? Very likely not, but not impossible. You act like no pitcher has never blossomed later in their career, and it's not like he's 33. Scouts and top baseball people have always spoke of his abilities. Is there no chance he can't put it all together, this year? You cat like it's a 100% sure thing.

When it comes to Taillon, I've "talked about him" more than anyone- even Yankee fans. (I wanted the Sox to trade for him.) He's no sure bet- just like all the Sox starters not named Erod. What bugs me most is that you switch up criteria to suit each different starter. With one guy, it's most recent numbers. With another, it's their best WAR season. With another it's improved K and BB rates. With our starters, you selectively choose the worst aspect of their record or recent production or ignore or pooh-pooh their most recent numbers as "unsustainable."

If I had to placer a bet on which starter group beyond their #1 does better in 2021, it would be a very tough choice. I'd probably pick the Yanks, but in no way would I be acting like it's a forgone conclusion, and neither should you- "and you know it."

[Thunder]

Orioles adjusted their rotation so that Means starts on Sunday.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not projecting Pivetta to end up as our best starter, but I do think he can end up with some very nice #3 or 4 numbers. He could suck, too, as could just about any Yankee starter not named Cole. No, I don't "know" Pivetta can't sustain being good. This good? Very likely not, but not impossible. You act like no pitcher has never blossomed later in their career, and it's not like he's 33. Scouts and top baseball people have always spoke of his abilities. Is there no chance he can't put it all together, this year? You cat like it's a 100% sure thing.

If Pivetta was on the Yankees, one can only imagine the glowing terms in which Jax would be describing him.

[notin]

Orioles adjusted their rotation so that Means starts on Sunday.

And that justifies the ends...

[Bellhorn04]

And that justifies the ends...

Pretty good wordplay.

[moonslav59]

If Pivetta was on the Yankees, one can only imagine the glowing terms in which Jax would be describing him.

He'd use previous 7 starts like that's all that counts. Then, when a Yankee has sucked, it's all about previous success stories.

I know we all do this to some extent, but he doesn't seem to even notice his criteria is all over the map.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton scratched with a tight quad. Hicks likely to undergo season ending wrist surgery

[Bellhorn04]

Stanton scratched with a tight quad. Hicks likely to undergo season ending wrist surgery

Bad news about Hicks. I never wish injuries on any player.

[Thunder]

Stanton scratched with a tight quad. Hicks likely to undergo season ending wrist surgery

Yankees pregame show wasn't so sure about Hicks just yet

[bkzwhitestrican]

Teixiera had that injury twice in his career. Once he had to get season ending surgery, the other he missed three games and finished second in MVP voting. Depends on the severity.

[iortiz]

io, I love the enthusiasm, but you're dead wrong here and I think you know it.

The Yankee rotation has something that nobody else has, Gerrit Cole. Cole is the front runner for CY. The Yanks also have something the sox don't, precedent. Cole has been a top 3 CY pitcher before. Kluber has won 2 CY's before. Montgomery has put up a 2+WAR season before. Taillon was an effective starter in Pitt. German won 18 games previously. The sox rotation is pitching well beyond their precedent right now. Eovaldi is set to smash his prior WAR high, heck he is set to reach his prior career high WAR at mid season. He's never stayed healthy before and never pitched like this before (and he is also cracking over the past few starts). He has also not allowed a HR in 45 innings this year. Is that sustainable? Pivetta is due to crash and burn against a good offense. Career high walk rate, dropping K rate, career low HR rate with a drop in GB percentage from career norms and unsustainably low BABIP. ERod is pitching to his norm as is Perez. Richards is turning around a rough start, although the last time he threw more than 77 innings in a season was 2015. The guy has never been a bad pitcher, just couldn't remain on the field. So maybe the sox do continue to pitch very, very well or maybe, just maybe, the predictive peripherals are right and the performance starts to dip

Then you need to look at who is in the wings. Severino is ahead of Sale right now. Houck has been shut down, yet Garcia just threw 5 shutout innings in AAA. The depth in the pitching side is with the Yanks

Well, time will tell jacko.

I’ve been very critical in the past when I saw flaws but I also made bold assessments in 2013 and 2018 when we won it all.

As I said since day one, this team will be a pleasant surprise. Save this post.

[Thunder]

I bet bkz loves that Judge is your only offense tonight LOL