A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

I think schwarber is on the first flight out of here after the parade!

However, I hope our big free agent splash is chris Taylor. That should help solidify the outfield!

Then hang’em Chaim can sign a bunch of under the radar pitchers and make a couple trades that cause us all to say “why” in March, and by august we say “what a great trade”!

Our OF is fine.

Verdugo in LF
Kike in CF
Renfroe in RF

[dgalehouse]

Ordinarily , I would like to see both Houck and Whitlock in the rotation . But the way baseball is played these days , the bullpen is absolutely vital . So , it is a tough call on how best to utilize them.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Ordinarily , I would like to see both Houck and Whitlock in the rotation . But the way baseball is played these days , the bullpen is absolutely vital . So , it is a tough call on how best to utilize them.

Old school methods of debuting young arms in the pen before transitioning to the rotation are no longer tried and true; it's all true/false now, no multiple choice. Old pal Daniel Bard bounced around and finally bounced back... but seeing if he could start seemed worth a try at the time. Papelbon found his niche at the back end and never wanted to start again.

I'd have to be a real oxymoron to hope to use the word "consistency" in the same sentence with "relievers". Guys thrive, burn out, find it again, then blow it... eventually losing jobs, before getting new life in another org -- to start their mercurial cycle all over again. Look at Kimbrel: bad in the NL, then great in the first half of '21, returns to the AL and bottoms out again.

[moonslav59]

Old school methods of debuting young arms in the pen before transitioning to the rotation are no longer tried and true; it's all true/false now, no multiple choice. Old pal Daniel Bard bounced around and finally bounced back... but seeing if he could start seemed worth a try at the time. Papelbon found his niche at the back end and never wanted to start again.

I'd have to be a real oxymoron to hope to use the word "consistency" in the same sentence with "relievers". Guys thrive, burn out, find it again, then blow it... eventually losing jobs, before getting new life in another org -- to start their mercurial cycle all over again. Look at Kimbrel: bad in the NL, then great in the first half of '21, returns to the AL and bottoms out again.

A starter who goes 2 innings, lets up 2 runs in the 3rd, then goes 2 more and lets up 1 run in the 6th, gets a quality start and a pat on the back.

A RP'er who lets up a single run 2 or 3 out of every 5 or 6 outings is thought of as inconsistent.

[dgalehouse]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

[moonslav59]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

Usually, I'd say the 160-200 IP guy is way more valuable than the 50-70 IP guy, even if most of those 60 innings are high leverage, but I'm not so sure in Whitlock and Houck's cases. One maybe, but not both, IMO.

[notin]

What I am trying to say is ; is a guy like Whitlock more valuable to the team as a starter , who goes maybe six innings every five days , or in the bullpen , where he could be used in big spots several days a week?

You're absolutely right.

The problem is, while SP might not be as important as it once was, it is still as expensive as ever. And relief pitchers are significantly cheaper. So it is extremely possible one or both of Houck and Whitlock end up in the rotation...

[moonslav59]

You're absolutely right.

The problem is, while SP might not be as important as it once was, it is still as expensive as ever. And relief pitchers are significantly cheaper. So it is extremely possible one or both of Houck and Whitlock end up in the rotation...

If one does not, I'll be shocked.

The cheapest route would be to not offer ERod the QO and move both Houck and Whitlock into the rotation.

Eoavldi
Sale
Houck
Whitlock
Pivetta
Seabold

Then, go and try to find some top pen arms without paying too much.

[notin]

Usually, I'd say the 160-200 IP guy is way more valuable than the 50-70 IP guy, even if most of those 60 innings are high leverage, but I'm not so sure in Whitlock and Houck's cases. One maybe, but not both, IMO.

While I get your point, I was listening to a couple talking heads on MLB radio on Sirius, and they were conjecturing that while starters throw many fewer IP than maybe 40 or so years ago they were still throwing more pitches. and I can see this as true because pitchers just throw a lot harder than they did even 10-15 yeas ago, and therefore hitters simply find more pitches more difficult to hit and lay off of them. The valuation of the BB as a skill rather than a matter of happenstance also could be a factor, as GM's started preferring OBP to BA.

So even with fewer IP from pitchers, it is possible they need even more durability than some of the Stalwarts of the Past that they get compared to unfavorably. Maybe those comps are flat out wrong in many cases...

[Bellhorn04]

While I get your point, I was listening to a couple talking heads on MLB radio on Sirius, and they were conjecturing that while starters throw many fewer IP than maybe 40 or so years ago they were still throwing more pitches. and I can see this as true because pitchers just throw a lot harder than they did even 10-15 yeas ago, and therefore hitters simply find more pitches more difficult to hit and lay off of them. The valuation of the BB as a skill rather than a matter of happenstance also could be a factor, as GM's started preferring OBP to BA.

There are also a ton more strikeouts. Add that to the walks, and you're going to have deeper counts and more pitches thrown.

[moonslav59]

There are also a ton more strikeouts. Add that to the walks, and you're going to have deeper counts and more pitches thrown.

What was interesting about the start of Barnes' season was how he was pitching more innings but throwing less pitches than previous seasons.

Then, the wheels came off.

[Bellhorn04]

What was interesting about the start of Barnes' season was how he was pitching more innings but throwing less pitches than previous seasons.

Then, the wheels came off.

What we'll never know is the impact Stickygate had on certain pitchers.

[moonslav59]

What we'll never know is the impact Stickygate had on certain pitchers.

Agreed, but what made the start of his season so remarkable?

Did they not have sticky stuff in previous years?

My point was more about how he did what he did before and not about why the wheels came off.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but what made the start of his season so remarkable?

Did they not have sticky stuff in previous years?

Yes, they did. But some pitchers got off to incredibly good starts this year. Chapman, for example had an ERA of 0.39 on June 6, with an absurd 43 K's in 23 innings. After Stickygate he fell off a cliff.

We know that they also changed the baseballs this year, reportedly with higher seams. So I would speculate that the combination of state of the art sticky stuff and higher seams had a lot to do with some of the amazing starts.

[moonslav59]

Yes, they did. But some pitchers got off to incredibly good starts this year. Chapman, for example had an ERA of 0.39 on June 6, with an absurd 43 K's in 23 innings. After Stickygate he fell off a cliff.

We know that they also changed the baseballs this year, reportedly with higher seams. So I would speculate that the combination of state of the art sticky stuff and higher seams had a lot to do with some of the amazing starts.

Sounds like you nailed it.