Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[notin]

We got JBJ in the 2011 draft. He got limited playing time in 2013 and more time starting in 2014
We got Mookie also in the 2011 draft. He started getting playing time in 2014.

While there were important additions made to the team prior to 2018 those two were instrumental in winning the WS in 2018 after coming through our farm system.
To follow that track, if we were to finish last in 2021 any outstanding prospects we'd get in the 2022 draft could be ready for the bigs in 2025. Yes, we'd have to sign other probably high priced players for 2026 but we could have solid players on the team who've come through our farm system.

Except it gets tough to rely on any team ever drafting like the Sox did in 2011. That was just a great draft. And Bradley certainly took a long time to get going. Had he not been such an offensive no-show to start his career, the Sox might have never moved Betts to the outfield and very possibly never signed Rusney Castillo.

But more important, these players were already in the farm for the last place finishes. The Sox have no one currently in their farm that such hopes can be pinned on. Certainly a player or two can make some sort of tremendous leap, but you can't count on it. But if you're counting on the future drafts, these two players took 3 years to debut. As dgalehouse points out, the Sox can't afford to starve while waiting for the farm to produce...

[notin]

I agree. I was just wondering who was doing the thinking.

Looks like my suggestion that we will reset after 2020 or 2021 is looking correct.

It seems to be such a consensus opinion that it's probably false..

[moonslav59]

Except it gets tough to rely on any team ever drafting like the Sox did in 2011. That was just a great draft. And Bradley certainly took a long time to get going. Had he not been such an offensive no-show to start his career, the Sox might have never moved Betts to the outfield and very possibly never signed Rusney Castillo.

But more important, these players were already in the farm for the last place finishes. The Sox have no one currently in their farm that such hopes can be pinned on. Certainly a player or two can make some sort of tremendous leap, but you can't count on it. But if you're counting on the future drafts, these two players took 3 years to debut. As dgalehouse points out, the Sox can't afford to starve while waiting for the farm to produce...

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):
Ellsbury
Buchholz
Lowrie
D Bard
Hagadone (part of VMart trade)
Ranaudo
Workman
Barnes
Swihart
JBJ
Johnson
Light (traded for Abad)
Kopech (part of Sale trade)

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

[moonslav59]

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):
Ellsbury
Buchholz
Lowrie
D Bard
Hagadone (part of VMart trade)
Ranaudo
Workman
Barnes
Swihart
JBJ
Johnson
Light (traded for Abad)
Kopech (part of Sale trade)

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

Couple this with the huge drop off from international FA signings, and we can see why our farm is ranked 30th.

[jacksonianmarch]

Couple this with the huge drop off from international FA signings, and we can see why our farm is ranked 30th.

Comp picks still exist, but they are rare. And if you are over the lux tax, the comp pick you'd get for a rejected QO player is after the 4th round, not after the 1st. Huge difference. They killed what Theo regularly used to build his teams while being successful

[jacksonianmarch]

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):
Ellsbury
Buchholz
Lowrie
D Bard
Hagadone (part of VMart trade)
Ranaudo
Workman
Barnes
Swihart
JBJ
Johnson
Light (traded for Abad)
Kopech (part of Sale trade)

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

You also need to realize the sox' hit rate for picks in the 30s was staggeringly high. Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bard, Workman, Barnes, and JBJ have all played all star level ball for at least a season or more at the big league level. Heck, Kopech might be the best of them all. It's insane how good they were at drafting

[moonslav59]

You also need to realize the sox' hit rate for picks in the 30s was staggeringly high. Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bard, Workman, Barnes, and JBJ have all played all star level ball for at least a season or more at the big league level. Heck, Kopech might be the best of them all. It's insane how good they were at drafting

That was before draft slot money, when "unsignable" players fell to rich teams in the lower rounds or lower first round.

[notin]

That was before draft slot money, when "unsignable" players fell to rich teams in the lower rounds or lower first round.

And smart teams like the Astros and Royals figured out how to game that system...

[moonslav59]

And smart teams like the Astros and Royals figured out how to game that system...

By tanking for consecutive years, or do you mean something else?

[notin]

By tanking for consecutive years, or do you mean something else?

By taking players in overslot positions and saving their cash for the Unsignables.

The Astros took the cheaper of all the likely #1 over all picks in Correa, and saved the money for Lance McCullers, who was a reported tough sign. The Royals grabbed Hunter Dozier early (I think no one even had him as a first rounder), and saved cash that they used to sign the difficult Sean Manea...

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

[moonslav59]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

One could argue Henry is greedier than Mookie.

[jacksonianmarch]

I will never ever begrudge a person when they’re trying to find out how much they’re worth. It’s the American way

[jad]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

And when your boss tells you you can live comfortably on 20K less per year than you get now, and therefore you can expect that as a pay cut, exactly how do you react?

[oldtimer]

One could argue Henry is greedier than Mookie.

Moon, maybe you could but I find that idea a little nutty. He shelled out for the highest payroll in the ML and you would argue that he is greedy? Doesn't stand up to scrutiny. What I think he wants is a competitive team and his hirelings have let him down although he provided them with a generous payroll to spread around. I hope he gets a GM who has the sense to rebuild this team by resetting this year and moving ahead for 2021. I would think keeping Mookie is a priority, but paying beyond his real worth is foolish and would only lead to more problems down the road. If Mookie would go anywhere to get paid and some owner has very deep pockets, I don't see that we should outbid them. Maybe establishing worth is measured in how many backsides that will put into seats or the like. Whatever the approach, they need to decide and set limits.