I can't do that right now, because I can't ever remember a young Sox pitcher like Houck throwing a perfect game for five innings (and then getting yanked).
Castillo's number one comp at age 28 is Marty Pattin. Marty was the ace that never was, a centerpiece, along with Tommy Harper, in a 10-player blockbuster of my youth. The Red Sox gave up half a dozen guys, including George Boomer Scott and Slim Jim Lonborg, plus Conigliaro and Brett (brothers of superstars).
Pattin was Boston's winningest pitcher in strike-shortened '72 with 17 Ws... but Luis Tiant turned into the ace and led the AL in ERA. It was kind of like Rick Porcello leading the '18 Sox in victories... or ERod leading the '21 Wild Card Sox.
Once before a game at Fenway, I nabbed a ball that Pattin, then a KC Royal, missed playing pepper. Now I feel bad.
Per the simulator at BTV, a fair deal would be Castillo, Eugenio Suarez (and his 3 years $38.5mill left) and Nick Senzel for Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran.
Or - Castillo and Suarez for Houck and Dalbec.
Or - Castillo and Mike Moustakas (2 yrs - $38mill) for Duran, Dalbec and Brayan Bello.
There you go - deals where the Sox do get to keep Casas, Mayer and Yorke. Of course, they do have to give up Houck, or take back Mike Moustakas. So it's not necessarily a good thing...
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Well, if the Sox want Castillo, they are going to have to give the Reds something good. If the goal is to hold on to Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Houck, it gets much more difficult. Jarren Duran only gets you so much.
Even taking back a questionable contract like Suarez (and then trying to figure out where he plays) doesn't really help the situation much. Taking back Moustakas might, but at some point, Cincinnati is probably going to ralize it is unwise to dump their worst contract in a package with their best trade bait...
I think we'd have to take on a sunken contract to get Castillo without giving up any of these 4.
Moustakas makes more sense, because he can play 2B.
I doubt Cincy gives up Castillo without getting at least one of our "big 4." (I'd say Whitlock makes it the big 5.)
BTV called this a "moderate overpay" by the Sox:
Duran, Downs & Groome
for
Castillo, Moustakas and Akiyama (another salary dump who plays OF)
Last edited by moonslav59; 11-09-2021 at 10:11 AM.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
From a baseball standpoint, I greatly prefer Suarez to Moustakas. However, just because Suarez is expensive doesn't mean the Reds are willing to dump the ML home run leader over the past 4 seasons so readily. Moustakas' experience at 2B appears to be an advantage, but even with Suarez never playing there, I actually trust him more at the position than the slow-footed and oft-injured Moustakas.
Now maybe the Sox could deal Casas (and either Groome or Bello) for Castillo and Suarez, and then put Suarez at 3B and move Devers over to 1B. Of course, that leaves Dalbec without a position and no one to play 2B....
I'm not sure Jeter Downs carries the appeal he did 12 months ago. I haven't given up on him and think he was placed in a very bad position, basically skipping AA ball after missing a year, but I do think it means any trade of him is definitely selling low, assuming any team is interested at all...
TJS is certainly not the career ender it used to be, but so far history has shown many pitchers need a second one after about 600 IP. And the frequency of getting a second TJS is too high to ignore.
I think the health history alone does make Houck the far more appealing trade target of the two. But giving up on Houck to get Castillo is still a dilemma. I'd probably consider trading Casas over Houck, but not sure how interested Cincinnati is in Casas given that Votto still has 2 years (and $57mill) on his contract, can't play anywhere else, and is virtually untradable even without taking into consideration his 10-5 rights...
Baseball Trade Values may deem a proposed trade a fair deal but that does not mean the package is the best the Cincinnati Reds would receive for two years of a reasonably priced top-tier starter in Luis Castillo.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...date=&enddate=
A team will likely need to overpay in a trade for the nearly 29-year-old righthander.