A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[oldtimer]

The Sox haven't looked all that strong of late and the pitching is something to be concerned about, also the bad base running. We know that Cora has spoken to some of our guys about running into silly outs, and last night he had one major case of stupidity to deal with.

Some things to think about. Hanley has dropped from around 320 to 282 in the past short period. He may need a rest. Moreland is still hot so be sure to keep him in the lineup. Nunez is also not doing the thing we have him for (producing offense), so Holt is no slugger, but a better option. Devers can't be replaced, but he sure can work on his plate discipline. Catching is a black hole offensively and we can't afford to play JBJ unless more of the lineup is hitting.

The pluses offensively are

Mookie, Beni is pulling himself up somewhat now, JDM is great, Moreland and Bogie. The rest not so much. We still have punch compared to other lineups and one hopes that Pedey can bring something like his prior solid hitting.

Something to be said about the Yankees is they don't seem to have the personalities that we do. No Hanley spending his time working on his dreadlocks, no group of outfielders acting like kids at a chucky cheese with their silly dance, for which they will be embarrassed later when they look back at it. Get serious guys, play ball and stay focused on the game.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks have their dances and have their fun as well. You can’t be all business. What I’ve said for awhile is the sox jumped out to their ridiculous start with some damn good play and against some bad competition. They still swept the Angels in Anaheim, so it wasn’t all chumps, and it’s not their fault that they are playing their schedule. That being said, the sox rotation has been lauded from day 1, but only two dogs in that rotation can hunt. Price’s velocity is down and he keeps getting the tingles when he has to face us. Pomeranz’s velo is way down and he’s lost nearly all effectiveness after an early season arm injury. ERod continues to be enigmatic and provide short innings for a starter with his stuff. Your team wasn’t built to bash teams, and that’s what they did through their insane start. That wasn’t going to last. If the Sox are to get rolling again, it will be due to the talent in the rotation starting to show and less about hitters who aren’t hitting. For all the negativity about your lineup, you still have 6 hitters hitting the piss out of the ball with pretty much all of them outperforming expectations right now

[moonslav59]

Many are reaching the expectations we had for them last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Having a high payroll does not mean you have good players, just means you have expensive players.

These last 25 games we have looked mediocre at best. Might be best for desperate dave to strap on a fresh depends diaper and start boxing up
The personal items in his office! Swwweeeetttt!!!!!

A stretch of mediocre ball and Larry is back to the clown posts.

The IQ on this forum really has dropped.

[moonslav59]

I guess some expect us to play .625-.650 ball every 10 game sample size.

[oldtimer]

I guess some expect us to play .625-.650 ball every 10 game sample size.

There are trends that are impacted by away games, quality of opponents, etc. There are also slumps that are harder to understand, both in the short term and in the longer term for players like JBJ and Vaz. Short term examples are Hanley hitting in the 220's for the last 7 games while Beni is hitting 366. Having pitching that is inconsistent also can result in ups and downs and our starters have been inconsistent, except for Sale. All of these will result in high and low periods.

The trick is to recognize when weak spots are driving the record in the wrong direction and be willing to make the hard decisions to improve. DD knows Swihart wants to be traded, knows our catcher offense is weak, knows JBJ is unlikely to contribute offensively and knows our BP is shaky. It's DD's responsibility to try to take corrective action and we need to do it this year as in my opinion, this is our best chance for a late October run in the next several years.

[moonslav59]

There are trends that are impacted by away games, quality of opponents, etc. There are also slumps that are harder to understand, both in the short term and in the longer term for players like JBJ and Vaz. Short term examples are Hanley hitting in the 220's for the last 7 games while Beni is hitting 366. Having pitching that is inconsistent also can result in ups and downs and our starters have been inconsistent, except for Sale. All of these will result in high and low periods.

The trick is to recognize when weak spots are driving the record in the wrong direction and be willing to make the hard decisions to improve. DD knows Swihart wants to be traded, knows our catcher offense is weak, knows JBJ is unlikely to contribute offensively and knows our BP is shaky. It's DD's responsibility to try to take corrective action and we need to do it this year as in my opinion, this is our best chance for a late October run in the next several years.

Well said.

I'm not sure DD "knows" JBJ will not likely contribute offensively the rest of this year. He's slumped for long periods before and then had a hot streak(s).

[Maxbialystock]

I frankly don't think JBJ is key to anything and am fine with whatever Cora does with him--plays him or doesn't play him.

To me right now it's all about the pitching and by that I mostly mean the rotation. Pom has been lousy his last two starts after a great Mar-April. ERod is up and down. Pom is up and down. Price is up and down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Many are reaching the expectations we had for them last year.

So you expected Betts to hit to a 1.2 OPS? I also don't expect JD to keep hitting .344. Moreland's career high in OPS was .812. He's over 200 points over that. He's gonna come down. Hanley and Xander have both come down from their hot first couple weeks as well. Beni is hotter than hell right now and believe it or not, is already 20 points above his 2017 OPS on the season. I expect JD to start hitting more doubles and the drop in his BA will be overcome by his rise in SLG. Mookie is not Barry Bonds on steroids circa 2002, he's going to cool off. I expect Moreland to fall down from his unsustainable season. I think Hanley is what he is, and that's a high .700s OPS player. I think Xander can be the guy he has been. I expect Devers to improve. I do not expect major improvements from your catcher position. I am not sure JBJ will break out. Who knows how Pedroia will be. Overall, I think your offense is playing above expectations and is probably more suited for a drop in production than a rise. So while you are saying they are reaching their expectations from last yr, I would say that's probably not true

[Maxbialystock]

So you expected Betts to hit to a 1.2 OPS? I also don't expect JD to keep hitting .344. Moreland's career high in OPS was .812. He's over 200 points over that. He's gonna come down. Hanley and Xander have both come down from their hot first couple weeks as well. Beni is hotter than hell right now and believe it or not, is already 20 points above his 2017 OPS on the season. I expect JD to start hitting more doubles and the drop in his BA will be overcome by his rise in SLG. Mookie is not Barry Bonds on steroids circa 2002, he's going to cool off. I expect Moreland to fall down from his unsustainable season. I think Hanley is what he is, and that's a high .700s OPS player. I think Xander can be the guy he has been. I expect Devers to improve. I do not expect major improvements from your catcher position. I am not sure JBJ will break out. Who knows how Pedroia will be. Overall, I think your offense is playing above expectations and is probably more suited for a drop in production than a rise. So while you are saying they are reaching their expectations from last yr, I would say that's probably not true

By the same token you seem to be dead certain Beni peaked two years ago, that Dever will never improve, that Vaz and JBJ will stay mired in the mud, etc.

I go by what moonslav said before this season started. Several guys under performed last year and moonslav said they would improve. They have. In addition, there can be no question JDM has not only added a very good bat, but one that helps others just as Ortiz's bat did in 2016 when the Sox led MLB in scoring.

The Yankees are likely to continue leading MLB in runs scored in 2018, but the Sox shouldn't be too far behind. The key for us is the rotation living up to its promise. Early in the season, they did and more. Now, not so much.

[S5Dewey]

Oh man... what would we ever do without these fans of other clubs dropping by to point out any and all potential problems the Sox might have?

[jad]

Oh man... what would we ever do without these fans of other clubs dropping by to point out any and all potential problems the Sox might have?

Hard to figure what their stake is in this. But then again, without them, we would probably have to listen to the juvenile rants and boring obscenities of the three or four posters I've blocked.

[moonslav59]

So you expected Betts to hit to a 1.2 OPS?
Yes, for a month or two here and there on his way to a .950 to .1050 season.

I also don't expect JD to keep hitting .344. Moreland's career high in OPS was .812. He's over 200 points over that. He's gonna come down.
He hasn't played enough to qualify for discussion.

Hanley and Xander have both come down from their hot first couple weeks as well.
Nothing shocking here.

Beni is hotter than hell right now and believe it or not, is already 20 points above his 2017 OPS on the season.
So what are you saying? I was supposed to expect an exact OPS every 6 weeks repeating with no variation?

I expect JD to start hitting more doubles and the drop in his BA will be overcome by his rise in SLG. Mookie is not Barry Bonds on steroids circa 2002, he's going to cool off. I expect Moreland to fall down from his unsustainable season.
I expect close to the same, but I expect JBJ, Vaz, Devers, Leon, Nunez and others to do better and make up for other players' declines.

I think Hanley is what he is, and that's a high .700s OPS player. I think Xander can be the guy he has been. I expect Devers to improve. I do not expect major improvements from your catcher position.
I expect better than .550. You should, too.

I am not sure JBJ will break out. Who knows how Pedroia will be. Overall, I think your offense is playing above expectations and is probably more suited for a drop in production than a rise. So while you are saying they are reaching their expectations from last yr, I would say that's probably not true.

I disagree. 9 of our top returning PA players from 2016 declined in 2017. Only Vaz improved. It was a massive under performance by just about the whole team. I expected many to bounce back, and many have.

Some have started out hotter than we can expect them to maintain, but I would not be surprised at all, if our overall team OPS stays around .780-- where it is right now. BTW, it was at .736 last year and we added JD and shed many sub .600 players. I don't think .780 is out of line with 2018 expectations.

[Slasher9]

So you expected Betts to hit to a 1.2 OPS? I also don't expect JD to keep hitting .344. Moreland's career high in OPS was .812. He's over 200 points over that. He's gonna come down. Hanley and Xander have both come down from their hot first couple weeks as well. Beni is hotter than hell right now and believe it or not, is already 20 points above his 2017 OPS on the season. I expect JD to start hitting more doubles and the drop in his BA will be overcome by his rise in SLG. Mookie is not Barry Bonds on steroids circa 2002, he's going to cool off. I expect Moreland to fall down from his unsustainable season. I think Hanley is what he is, and that's a high .700s OPS player. I think Xander can be the guy he has been. I expect Devers to improve. I do not expect major improvements from your catcher position. I am not sure JBJ will break out. Who knows how Pedroia will be. Overall, I think your offense is playing above expectations and is probably more suited for a drop in production than a rise. So while you are saying they are reaching their expectations from last yr, I would say that's probably not true

I think all the Yankees players are playing above expectations and playing way over their heads and I expect a drop in production as opposed to rise.
now imagine I went to a Yankees fan forum and posted that. that would be some good trolling, no? yes?

[MADSTORK]

Why is it so hard for a select few to recognize this Team is not Championship caliber?
The roster as constructed was not good enough the past 2 playoffs but yet the same players return and fans talk about a different result.
There is zero pitching after Sale and zero relief before Kimbrel.

The Organization is Tax strapped at the moment to find any pitching help. It boggles my mind how Ownership says in 14 that signing players to big contracts at the age of 30 is not good business. Lester Lackey Miller all gone and Ramirez Sandoval Price are signed.
Another tongue twister is what Cherington was thinking when he signed Ramirez. You had to know of the 2019 Free Agent Class but yet gives Ramirez a vesting option for that year? Same with DD and Price. DD didn't know of the arms in the 19 free agent class? Stupid business.

Ownership needs to pull a Cashman. Dump the dead weight to reduce payroll for the 19 Free Agent Bonanza! Pomeranz Erod Kelly Porcello and do not allow Ramirez to vest. Talk Price into opting out? If you have to deal a prospect along with a Porcello type contract to get them out, so be it.

86 win Team with this pitching