I think $7M is a high price tag for a catcher with not even 1 fWAR this season.
I think JD is 60/40 to opt out.
Sox need to decide which of Houck and Whitlock should be moved into the rotation. I don't think they will put both of them there, but I guess it's within reason.
I would give the QO to ERod.
I think there's a chance DHern and Sawamura are dealt.
Barnes will be better next year.
Giving ERod QO strikes me as a no-brainer, and I am far from his biggest supporter.
I do think one of Whitlock or Houck moves to the rotation, where we have no idea what to expect. Sox have 3 starters lined up for next season already under contract. If ERod makes 4, then maybe they will think twice about moving Houck/Whitlock there...
All I'm saying is the Barnes mystery is underrated when reflecting on '21 (which we're already doing) and certainly going forward. At the end, Cora was using the same phrases he said about Sale, "trying to get him right" -- but Barnes wasn't coming off major surgery. We all want better relievers for '22. The bullpen was the top reason the Wild Sox of '21 didn't go even further on their trail of beers and jeers.
Fun fact:
AL First Base OPS Leaders from 6-10-21 to the end of the season
1. Vlad Guerrero - .955
2. Bobby Dalbec - .916
3. Matt Olson - .897
So why should the Sox replace this guy?
He did great in 2020, also. Basically, he sucked for April and May and a few stretches here and there.
His defense also improved, but it started out so badly, he's still only near acceptable.
To me, he should be viewed as our FT 1Bman for 2022, with a platoon partner available, if needed.
Sox 4 Ever
I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?
He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.
When you did into his statcast numbers:
93rd percentile average exit velocity
95th percentile hard hit %
90th percentile xSLG
90th percentile Barrel %
7th percentile bb %
6th percentile chase rate
Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.
He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.
What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.
Wong and Downs both finished the season off strong. Ronaldo Hernandez is terrible behind the plate, but his bat may be able to carry him.
Ward will not be ready by 2023 considering the amount of time he'll lose to TJS. Mata is probably a relief profile going forward, unless he just becomes a 3 inning opener.
Nobody has a clue about what Song will be. He may never get out of the FCL. He may get fast tracked to MLB. Huge variance there.
Last edited by mvp 78; 10-25-2021 at 09:51 AM.
He really was two different pitchers, this year.
Despite walking too many batters, all year, his OPS against was...
.574 in his first 159 PAs against (.301 BAbip) 2.68 ERA/1.297 WHIP
.948 in his last 117 PAs against (.349 BAbip) 6.48 ERA/1.680 WHIP
I guess what I meant by deceivingly good was that he was pretty good for most of the season.
His OPS against was under .637 for 4 months.
.856 in July (.440 BAbip)
1.152 in September (.333 BAbip)
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Chris Taylor is a perfectly average player who can't hit a breaking balls and offspeed stuff. His whiff and k rates are bottom 10%. His hard hit % is well below average and he relies on his speed which will continue to diminish as he gets older. Is he good enough to push Verdugo or Renfroe to the bench? Maybe? I wouldn't start him against RHP and put Verdugo on the bench though.