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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

  1. #751
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Jackie Bradley Jr.'s OPS+ went from 49 in 423 plate appearances in 2014 to 119 in 255 plate appearances in 2015. Mookie Betts' OPS+ went from 108 in 2017 to 185 in 2018 to 124 this year.

    Stats sometimes fluctuate year to year.
    Hitting stats year to year are now basically out the window as there are too many dynamics changing in baseball primarily due to MLB manipulating the game and the very baseball itself. MLB has basically run through more pitching arms than you can shake a stick at in its velocity driven madness and thus pitchers have started a little mini revolt of their own now throwing more off speed and breaking stuff than anybody ever heard about.

    Breaking stuff can be hard on the arm as well. But if you do not have the physical makeup or the technique to throw hard yet insist on trying, its the fastest way to wear out an arm there is. Some of the throwing motions of many of today's hard throwers must surely have the hard throwers of the past either turning in their graves or laughing their asses off. Chris Sale comes to mind as not having what you would think is a sustainable motion for throwing high velo hard stuff over time.

    Neither Mookie nor JD hit breaking stuff particularly well just as examples of what can happen to hitters confronting an avalanche of additional breaking pitches and having their stats suffer for it.

    Then the rocket ship baseball has not helped real power hitters all that much because they don't award more runs for "how far" you hit it. Over the fence nets you a single HR added to your total for the year. However, the weaker hitters have benefited greatly from the rocket ship. Virtually anybody that could swing a bat at all was at 13+ HR's by the ASG, laughable totals. Hence, we are on track for more HR's than ever and while the current pace has MLB hitting 6,700+ HR's this year, fully 700 more HR's than the previous high water mark of 6,105 set in 2017 now that we are in hitting season weather-wise I am inclined to think they will exceed any other year by more than 800 HR's most of them from guys that should not be generating big HR totals. On top of that nothing including the Steroid era is going to touch the four year total from 2016 (the first of this generation of rocket ship baseball) to 2019 (the new and even hotter rocket ship).

    Result of all this nonsense entirely catalyzed by MLB manipulation: We have mass quantities of "pitchers" filling out MLB unis and rosters that never should have seen the inside of a MLB clubhouse and we have stats like "quality starts" and we have "Openers" and we have starters that can barely go 5 innings before they hit the 100 pitch mark and armies of relief pitchers. We have big HR and K totals since pitchers cannot throw with command and confidence and hitters are swinging out of their shoelaces at everything.
    Last edited by jung; 07-16-2019 at 01:52 PM.

  2. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    AL East PO's by CF'ers

    Boston.......194
    NYY...........197
    TBay.........172
    Tor............211
    Balt...........288

    I don't see a huge difference there. If you throw out Baltimore, whose pitching staff is going to guarantee a lot of balls hit a long way, the average of the remaining four is 193.5, exactly where Boston is. Since JBJ is essentially the only guy who plays CF for the Sox it's safe to say that he's getting about the same number of PO's as the remaining four CF's in the AL East. (which surprises me too, given that he's playing next to Mookie Freakin' Betts!)
    Bradley is the only one playing CF in Boston, but the other teams have not had that luxury.

    Bradley has played 737 innings in CF.

    TB’s Kiermeier is the only other AL East CF with as many as 600 innings in centerfield, and he still has fewer innings than Bradley by about 48. But he is crushing Bradley in OOZ plays - 61 to 40. Being flanked by players like Austin Meadows and Avisail Garcia is certainly a factor. More OOZ plays in fewer innings should at the very least contribute to a better rating, right?

    Now if Bradley was in Tampa and Kiermeier was in Boston, it’s very likely those numbers would be reversed...

  3. #753
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Your joking right? You must be.
    Nope, not joking at all.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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  4. #754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    Dwar can suck a D. So can war. If you want to just use stats try WAA. At least its comparing the MLB player to the MLB average. But defense war can really suck stinky feet.
    Funny how the stat folk ignore WAA but cling to WAR as if it were their crying child.
    JBJ's 2019 WAA is -0.3 per B-R. His WAR per B-R is 0.9.

    But isn't WAA pretty much derived from WAR?
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    JBJ's 2019 WAA is -0.3 per B-R. His WAR per B-R is 0.9.

    But isn't WAA pretty much derived from WAR?
    Different baseline, but same idea.

    WAR is to WAA like Kelvin is to Celsius...

  6. #756
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Your joking right? You must be.
    You do realize, I hope, that Cora benched JBJ several times earlier this season because of his weak hitting, which was definitely a problem. What save him was/is that JDM is actually the 4th outfielder, but is best used as the DH.

    Here are the current Wins Against Replacement for the top eight Sox--

    Betts 3.7
    Devers 3.4
    Bogie 3.1
    Vazquez 1.8
    JDM 1.5
    Beni 1.1
    Chavis 1.1
    JBJ .9

    The top two second basemen (now that Chavis is at 1B) are Holt, .6, and Hernandez, .5.

    I have my doubts about JBJ, would rather have him in CF than Jacoby Ellsbury--who actually isn't in anybody's CF these days. I would also rather have JBJ in CF than anyone else on the Sox. The latest WAR ratings have his .9 as tied for 16th best CF in MLB.

  7. #757
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    Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

    I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

    We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.

  8. #758
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

    I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

    We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.
    I think it's just shuttling guys to and from Pawtucket, Nick. Brasier pitched the last 3 in a row so he was the logical candidate to go down.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post

    I have my doubts about JBJ, would rather have him in CF than Jacoby Ellsbury--who actually isn't in anybody's CF these days. I would also rather have JBJ in CF than anyone else on the Sox. The latest WAR ratings have his .9 as tied for 16th best CF in MLB.
    Thank you for posting this. It's exactly what I've been railing against here.

    Even though I think most of us agree that JBJ's WAR is negatively affected by having Mookie next to him, JBJ has now been branded as being middle of the road.... because of his WAR.

    This is the danger of using bogus statistics to describe a player.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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  10. #760
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

    I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

    We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.
    I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer. As of tonight, we have only 2 major league arms in our bullpen.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  11. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer. As of tonight, we have only 2 major league arms in our bullpen.
    While I agree he is a borderline major leaguer, I think this move was just to get fresher arms for the long run of games ahead. Brasier will be and Weber and/or Hernandez demoted at some point in the near future...

  12. #762
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    AL East PO's by CF'ers

    Boston.......194
    NYY...........197
    TBay.........172
    Tor............211
    Balt...........288

    I don't see a huge difference there. If you throw out Baltimore, whose pitching staff is going to guarantee a lot of balls hit a long way, the average of the remaining four is 193.5, exactly where Boston is. Since JBJ is essentially the only guy who plays CF for the Sox it's safe to say that he's getting about the same number of PO's as the remaining four CF's in the AL East. (which surprises me too, given that he's playing next to Mookie Freakin' Betts!)
    It's not so much about the amount of plays hit to JBJ, it's about how many difficult plays he makes near or beyond the fringes of the CF zone. Betts takes some of those plaays away and the short LF wall may take away others. That's one point that notin has been making.

    My point is about how good is the #20 best defensive CF'er in MLB? How good is #25? #30? How good is a AAAA player on defense- some AAAA may be great- some may suck on defense.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  13. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    Thank you for posting this. It's exactly what I've been railing against here.

    Even though I think most of us agree that JBJ's WAR is negatively affected by having Mookie next to him, JBJ has now been branded as being middle of the road.... because of his WAR.

    This is the danger of using bogus statistics to describe a player.
    He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.
    Not to mention, if JBJ is middle of the road this year, it’s because his offense was so abysmal the first 6 weeks of the season, the only comparable player (Chris Owings) in MLB was released. And Jackie’s salary and defense probably kept him from a similar fate...

  15. #765
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    While I agree he is a borderline major leaguer, I think this move was just to get fresher arms for the long run of games ahead. Brasier will be and Weber and/or Hernandez demoted at some point in the near future...
    He'll be back and forth for some time but I stick by my prediction.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

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