Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting tidbit in the Cora press conference today regarding analytics: he gave the example of Game 4 of the World Series 2018, when he let ERod pitch to Puig, and it resulted in a 3-run homer. Cora's decision was solely driven by pre-game info that said Puig was better vs. righties than lefties. But then Cora mentioned that he knew this wasn't the same Eddie, who hadn't started a game in 16 days. Translation: Cora's gut said yank him, but he stuck with the plan and got burned. Of course, he added that that was the same game that Roberts pulled Rich Hill too soon (according to media, fans and lame ducks everywhere).

Btw: i was ok with letting ERod pitch to Puig, but the one decision I was totally against was letting Eovaldi pitch to Puig with two outs, first base open, Austin Barnes on deck, and the typing run on second in the 13th inning of Game 3. Kinsler misplayed Puig's grounder (I didn't use the "c" word!) and the marathon lasted another 17 hours...

Some more on this:

Alex Speier
@alexspeier•

Cora on Snell getting pulled notes that he made the decision, based on information from analytics, to leave Eduardo Rodriguez in vs Puig in 2018 WS G4 and it proved to be the wrong decision. After the fact, he realized, ‘This is not the same Eduardo that our information says.

In other words, there are identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics. There’s preparation, but ‘There’s not a script.’

Cora says he and Bloom discussed the Snell decision. ‘There’s no black and white’ on managerial decisions. Decisions are ‘a partnership.’

Cora says you have to use information to make decisions, but that information takes different forms.

"identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics"

[Maxbialystock]

In a somewhat ironic twist, Kevin Cash is named AL Manager of the Year.

Meh. Despite my ineffectual ranting, I think he probably deserves it. The Rays had a small payroll but a great year, largely, I think, because of Cash's use of his bullpen, early and often. If anything, the vote was a thumb in the eye of the vaunted Yankees management with all those stars and not nearly as many wins. To rub things in, the Rays beat them in the ALCS.

[Bellhorn04]

Not Renteria?

I probably have a bias toward Cash because of how the Rays stomped the Yanks this year.

[Maxbialystock]

It comes down to the players' performances. A game is not won or lost on a managerial decision, it is won or lost on whether the players execute or don't. So, I disagree with how you reached your conclusion that the Rays were never going to win. The Rays didn't play a perfect World Series. Now, perhaps they perfectly managed the World Series (which I don't think is likely), but that is far different than saying that they played perfectly.

I very much like human mistakes and human triumphs also. Managing a game using analytics and experiencing those human mistakes/triumphs are not mutually exclusive. The way the players perform on the field is still entirely dictated by the players. Koji was the logical choice to come in and close out those games, but he still had to execute. Koji being the right choice does not guarantee his successful results.

Well, it certainly looks as though my hyperbole has me boxed in--by you. Well done.

I can't resist a story my dad loved to tell. He played HS football in western MA about 90 years ago. His story, which was made up, went like this. It was the end of the season with one game to go--between two teams which were arch rivals. One was heavily favored, the other was determined, and managed to keep the score tied until very late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, their backup quarterback was injured and taken from the game when they were deep in their own territory--on their own 20 yard line.

Before sending in his very inexperienced third string quarterback, the coach told him: "Don't do anything fancy. On the first play I want Poznowski to carry the ball off tackle. On the second play, I want you to hand it to Jensen, who will run around left end. On the third play, you just take the ball right up the middle. And on the fourth down, punt. You got that?"

The excited young quarterback acknowledged his instructions and went out to join his team. He handed the ball off to Poznowski, who went off tackle for 12 yards. Then Jensen went around left end for 20 yards, after which the young quarterback carried the ball all the way down to the other team's 15 yard line. With seconds to go in the game, the team lined up in punt formation, and the young quarterback punted the ball out of the stadium. His coach rushed out to the field with fire in his eyes and asked the youngster, "whatever were you thinking when you had the ball on their 15 yard line with seconds to go in the game and you punted?" The 3d string quarterback answered, "I was thinking I had a pretty dumb coach."

[moonslav59]

Well, it certainly looks as though my hyperbole has me boxed in--by you. Well done.

I can't resist a story my dad loved to tell. He played HS football in western MA about 90 years ago. His story, which was made up, went like this. It was the end of the season with one game to go--between two teams which were arch rivals. One was heavily favored, the other was determined, and managed to keep the score tied until very late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, their backup quarterback was injured and taken from the game when they were deep in their own territory--on their own 20 yard line.

Before sending in his very inexperienced third string quarterback, the coach told him: "Don't do anything fancy. On the first play I want Poznowski to carry the ball off tackle. On the second play, I want you to hand it to Jensen, who will run around left end. On the third play, you just take the ball right up the middle. And on the fourth down, punt. You got that?"

The excited young quarterback acknowledged his instructions and went out to join his team. He handed the ball off to Poznowski, who went off tackle for 12 yards. Then Jensen went around left end for 20 yards, after which the young quarterback carried the ball all the way down to the other team's 15 yard line. With seconds to go in the game, the team lined up in punt formation, and the young quarterback punted the ball out of the stadium. His coach rushed out to the field with fire in his eyes and asked the youngster, "whatever were you thinking when you had the ball on their 15 yard line with seconds to go in the game and you punted?" The 3d string quarterback answered, "I was thinking I had a pretty dumb coach."

Great one!

[dgalehouse]

Some more on this:

Alex Speier
@alexspeier•

Cora on Snell getting pulled notes that he made the decision, based on information from analytics, to leave Eduardo Rodriguez in vs Puig in 2018 WS G4 and it proved to be the wrong decision. After the fact, he realized, ‘This is not the same Eduardo that our information says.

In other words, there are identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics. There’s preparation, but ‘There’s not a script.’

Cora says he and Bloom discussed the Snell decision. ‘There’s no black and white’ on managerial decisions. Decisions are ‘a partnership.’

Cora says you have to use information to make decisions, but that information takes different forms.

"identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics"

My question is this: Are the boys from analytics in contact with , and making recommendations to , the manager during the course of the game ? If they are , is that a good thing?

[Bellhorn04]

My question is this: Are the boys from analytics in contact with , and making recommendations to , the manager during the course of the game ? If they are , is that a good thing?

It's a good question. Some Yankee fans refer to the team's analytics guys as 'the Kids in the Hall' because they think they're stationed close to the dugout.

I would hope that in general that input all comes before the game.

[Kimmi]

Some more on this:

Alex Speier
@alexspeier•

Cora on Snell getting pulled notes that he made the decision, based on information from analytics, to leave Eduardo Rodriguez in vs Puig in 2018 WS G4 and it proved to be the wrong decision. After the fact, he realized, ‘This is not the same Eduardo that our information says.

In other words, there are identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics. There’s preparation, but ‘There’s not a script.’

Cora says he and Bloom discussed the Snell decision. ‘There’s no black and white’ on managerial decisions. Decisions are ‘a partnership.’

Cora says you have to use information to make decisions, but that information takes different forms.

"identifiable extenuating circumstances in a moment to consider beyond the larger data sets from analytics"

Again, I don't think anyone is suggesting that any manager manage by data alone. The data is not going reflect those extenuating circumstances. I happen to agree that ERod not having started a game in 16 days is something that needs to be strongly considered on top of the data.

With the case of Snell, I'm not sure that there were any identifiable extenuating circumstances. The fact that Snell was dealing was not necessarily an extenuating circumstance, nor was the fact that Anderson had not pitched well in his last 5 or 6 outings.

Anderson might have been overexposed in the playoffs. I could possibly consider that an extenuating circumstance.

[Kimmi]

Well, it certainly looks as though my hyperbole has me boxed in--by you. Well done.

I can't resist a story my dad loved to tell. He played HS football in western MA about 90 years ago. His story, which was made up, went like this. It was the end of the season with one game to go--between two teams which were arch rivals. One was heavily favored, the other was determined, and managed to keep the score tied until very late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, their backup quarterback was injured and taken from the game when they were deep in their own territory--on their own 20 yard line.

Before sending in his very inexperienced third string quarterback, the coach told him: "Don't do anything fancy. On the first play I want Poznowski to carry the ball off tackle. On the second play, I want you to hand it to Jensen, who will run around left end. On the third play, you just take the ball right up the middle. And on the fourth down, punt. You got that?"

The excited young quarterback acknowledged his instructions and went out to join his team. He handed the ball off to Poznowski, who went off tackle for 12 yards. Then Jensen went around left end for 20 yards, after which the young quarterback carried the ball all the way down to the other team's 15 yard line. With seconds to go in the game, the team lined up in punt formation, and the young quarterback punted the ball out of the stadium. His coach rushed out to the field with fire in his eyes and asked the youngster, "whatever were you thinking when you had the ball on their 15 yard line with seconds to go in the game and you punted?" The 3d string quarterback answered, "I was thinking I had a pretty dumb coach."

Not trying to box anyone in Max. Just trying to make a point.

Also, that's a great story. Drives home the point that we need to be able to adjust the game plan based on how things are unfolding. I don't and have never disagreed with that.

[Kimmi]

My question is this: Are the boys from analytics in contact with , and making recommendations to , the manager during the course of the game ? If they are , is that a good thing?

Obviously, I don't know for sure, but I don't think that's happening. You always hear the FO guys say that they provide the manager with the data, but it's up to the manager as to how he uses that data. The manager is free to set his own line up, make his own pitching changes, etc.

I think all data and recommendations are provided pre-game.