A Realistic View at 2022: Part II

[moonslav59]

The season is about to start and the roster is just about set.

A wild and crazy winter has reshuffled the deck for a lot of teams, but they Sox remain in the mix for a playoff slot and possibly more, if more goes right than wrong.

I'm projecting the AL East as such:

94 TOR
92 BOS
90 NYY
86 TBR
60 BAL

Here's an optimistic view, but within the range of "realism:"

My 2022 Projections (based on good health)
PA Player OPS
650 Devers .900
650 Bogey .880
650 Story .850
625 JD M .840
650 Verdugo .800
650 Kike .800
550 Dalbec .790
450 Vaz .760
350 Arroyo .750
350 Duran .740
175 Plawecki .700
550 Shaw, Casas, Wong, Arauz & others .650

IP Pitcher ERA
180 Eovaldi 3.90
170 Pivetta 4.30
150 Sale 3.20
130 Wacha
120 Houck 3.40
110 Hill
100 Whitlock 3.40
60 Barnes
50 Taylor
50 Brasier
50 Diekman
50 Strahm
50 Sawamura
130+ DHern, Davis, Valdez and others 5.00

Let the games begin!

Link to Part I:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2022-Part-I

[moonslav59]

The 2022 Lux Tax Budget

25.6 Sale
23.3 Story
22.0 JD
20.0 Bogey
17.0 Eovaldi
16.0 Price
12.0 JBJ
11.2 Devers
10.0 Paxton
9.4 Barnes
7.0 Vaz
7.0 Wacha
7.0 Kike
5.0 Hill
4.0 Diekman
3.6 Verdugo
3.0 Strahm
2.7 Pivetta
1.5 Sawamura
1.4 Brasier
1.2 Arroyo
1.0 Taylor
2.8 0-3 yr players
1.7 0-3 yr player bonus pool
16.0 Player Benefits

$235.8M ($5.8M over the first tax line)

[moonslav59]

The 40 man roster still has a few tweaks to go through by opening day.

Adding Shaw, Robles, Holland, Cordero, Refsnyder, Stewart or others will force a DFA or 60 day IL placement, but here is the 40 man, as of today, according to sxoprospects.com:

Projected 28 Man Opening Day Roster:

60 Day IL: Paxton
IL: Sale & Taylor

SP: Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta, Wacha & Hill
RP/SP: Whitlock & Crawford
RP: Barnes, Brasier, Diekman, Strahm, Sawamura, Davis, DHern, Valdez
1. Kike CF
2. Devers 3B
3. Bogey SS
4. Story 2B
5. JD DH
6. Verdugo LF
7. Dalbec 1B
8. Vaz C
9. JBJ RF
Bench: Arroyo, Shaw, Plawecki, Cordero

DFA (for Shaw & Cordero): Ralph Garza & Bazardo

the remaining 10:
Duran
Bello
Mata
Winckowski
Groome
Downs
Wong
R Hernandez
Seabold
Arauz

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

So 22% of the budget is going to three pitchers who won't be with the team Opening Day (Sale), until midseason (Paxton), or ever again (Price).

When Price comes off the books, maybe Bloom can just transfer the additional $16M to Bogaerts' account... and hopefully JD's $22 to Devers. Now, whichever poster on the board is an alias for Sam Kennedy can type, "We want them to be Red Sox in perpetuity; no, really."

[cp176]

I don't know folks but I'm starting to get excited about baseball again. The starting lineup on the field yesterday was very very impressive looking. When you have a hitter with the potential power that Bobby Dalbec has hitting in the 7 hole life might be interesting. Sounds like Story was impressed with what he saw.

[moonslav59]

I don't know folks but I'm starting to get excited about baseball again. The starting lineup on the field yesterday was very very impressive looking. When you have a hitter with the potential power that Bobby Dalbec has hitting in the 7 hole life might be interesting. Sounds like Story was impressed with what he saw.

I feel the same way. Spring is such a great season!

[Bellhorn04]

I feel the same way. Spring is such a great season!

Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...

[moonslav59]

Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...

We could win the first games 10-0 and some will still find something to criticize.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...

They won't be swept by Baltimore until at least the end of April/early May now. Whew...

I'm sure we'll all be much more sane if they just get swept by the scrub team they open this season with.

[mvp 78]

We could win the first games 10-0 and some will still find something to criticize.

Bullpen looks shaky. Can't trust the rotation's health. JD swooned after the first month last season!

[mvp 78]

@IanMBrowne
Alex Cora says the competition for the final two spots on the bench is still wide open. Arauz, Shaw, Refsnyder, Franchy and Yolmer Sanchez all remain in camp fighting for a spot. Arauz is already on the 40 man so IMO, he has inside track on third bench spot. 4th spot a scramble.

Shaw vs Refsnyder vs Franchy vs Yolmer?

I think Yolmer and Arauz serve the same purpose. I don't like Refsnyder. Franchy or Shaw? Franchy is LHB, can play OF and experimented at 1B. Shaw is LHB, can play 1B/3B and has some experience in the OF. I want to give Franchy another shot, but he was terrible last year. At the start of his horrible season, he only produced a 32 wRC+ and was promptly sent down. When he was called up at the end of the year after getting substantial run in AAA, he still only produced a 32 wRC+.

I think they'll keep Shaw around.

[notin]

Shaw and Arauz.


I liked Yolmer Sanchez as a starter, but that was before Story came on board.

I think Shaw gets the other spot. Sanchez didn’t bring much you don’t get from Arauz, who is already a lesser version of Christian Arroyo.

Not sure what they see in Refsnyder at all. I mean, if you want a RHH OF to platoon with Bradley, why get one who is worse than Bradley vs LHP and a massive drop defensively as well?

[moonslav59]

Shaw and Arauz.


I liked Yolmer Sanchez as a starter, but that was before Story came on board.

I think Shaw gets the other spot. Sanchez didn’t bring much you don’t get from Arauz, who is already a lesser version of Christian Arroyo.

Not sure what they see in Refsnyder at all. I mean, if you want a RHH OF to platoon with Bradley, why get one who is worse than Bradley vs LHP and a massive drop defensively as well?

It makes more sense just keeping Arauz than DFA'ing someone to add Cordero, as I suggested earlier.

[mvp 78]

It makes more sense just keeping Arauz than DFA'ing someone to add Cordero, as I suggested earlier.

They would have to DFA someone to get Shaw on the 28 man roster though?

[notin]

It makes more sense just keeping Arauz than DFA'ing someone to add Cordero, as I suggested earlier.

I prefer Cordero over Shaw. That we are hearing about Martinez/Arroyo/Dalbec/Arauz outfielder experiments just hammers home who is needed more…