I love what I'm seeing, too, but 6 weeks is a small sample size.Originally Posted by iortiz
I love what I'm seeing, too, but 6 weeks is a small sample size.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
If I was a sox fan, I would be tickled pink.
Hal sucks
Sure, but in Pivetta’s case he’s been consistently solid since last year.
Thing is talent is there, and that my friend, it’s the most important thing beyond the sample.
Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox
I am, and 39 games is nearly 1/4 of the season, but I've always been one to think sample sizes need to be bigger than 39 games to have a true read on exactly how good or bad anyone is.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Thing is, you most of the times think that things will go north for NY and south for the Sox and it hasn’t been that way since I’ve been in the board — just the opposite.
Said that, I like our chances going further than NY this year.
Last edited by iortiz; 05-13-2021 at 09:56 PM.
Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox
There’s 3 simple reasons why I think you’ll see the yanks progress further than the Sox.
1. True ace. Sox don’t have one. Yanks have the CY front runner
2. Dominant pen. Yanks pen is lights out when they get a lead
3. Willingness to improve. I doubt the Sox spend prospect capitol at the deadline whereas I think the yanks are all in for 21.
Just a coincidence that the two most important factors to winning happens to be ONLY the #1 SP'er and pen?
The 2-5 starters and starter depth will pitch about 40% of your total innings, this year. Ours, too.
Offense matters, too.
Both teams seem to not want to go over the tax line.
The Sox are about $4.5M under the line.
The Yanks are about $2.4M under.
While I agree, the Sox are less likely to go all in at the deadline, it's no slam dunk Cashman & the owners will do what they refused to do the last several years.
You guys are still the favorites, in my book, and certainly having the better ace and pen are a big help, but having the best or top 3 offense and maybe better 2-6 starters and the return of Sale possible, this ain't over, yet.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
IMO Sox have way better rotation and anybody (yes, even Perez) can matchup any offense & ace combo any day of the week. This rotation is compact and balanced. There’s no such difference between No 1. And No 5. This fact makes us very dangerous since most of the times it will keep us competing in most games with an elite offense.
Regarding the pen, we have an elite closer. We have solid arms for high-leverage situations in Whitelock, The Jap, Hernandez (who has improved a lot) and even Ottavino. Also, Houk is a good option coming from the pen if needed. All-in-all it has been (will be) solid. Bloom is a TB guy, and he knows how to fix pitching —seems that has been working thus far with all the pitching staff.
Regarding the offense, we have a better one. Numbers are there. I expect it goes that way through the season. It is elite specially our 1-5, and the bottom it’s very versatile with a lot of options. It won’t see Cordero for much longer, unless he somehow comes around.
As I said I honestly like our chances.
Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox
Before tonight, our staff held the opps to a .576 OPS in high leverage situations. Whitlock was at .800 in just 15 PA (10th on staff) in PAs against- 304 total by the team.
The vaunted Yankee pen has held the opps to .660 OPS, which is actually worse than the Sox in 241 PAs. It's .522 Late & Close. The Sox are at .619.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Needed a good laugh after tonight's drubbing, thanks. I do like your optimism though.
All it took was one big win.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
io, I love the enthusiasm, but you're dead wrong here and I think you know it.
The Yankee rotation has something that nobody else has, Gerrit Cole. Cole is the front runner for CY. The Yanks also have something the sox don't, precedent. Cole has been a top 3 CY pitcher before. Kluber has won 2 CY's before. Montgomery has put up a 2+WAR season before. Taillon was an effective starter in Pitt. German won 18 games previously. The sox rotation is pitching well beyond their precedent right now. Eovaldi is set to smash his prior WAR high, heck he is set to reach his prior career high WAR at mid season. He's never stayed healthy before and never pitched like this before (and he is also cracking over the past few starts). He has also not allowed a HR in 45 innings this year. Is that sustainable? Pivetta is due to crash and burn against a good offense. Career high walk rate, dropping K rate, career low HR rate with a drop in GB percentage from career norms and unsustainably low BABIP. ERod is pitching to his norm as is Perez. Richards is turning around a rough start, although the last time he threw more than 77 innings in a season was 2015. The guy has never been a bad pitcher, just couldn't remain on the field. So maybe the sox do continue to pitch very, very well or maybe, just maybe, the predictive peripherals are right and the performance starts to dip
Then you need to look at who is in the wings. Severino is ahead of Sale right now. Houck has been shut down, yet Garcia just threw 5 shutout innings in AAA. The depth in the pitching side is with the Yanks
Hal sucks
Pivetta is on the hill tonight against the Angels, who may get Rendon back tonight. Will he "crashing and burning" tonight? Or maybe next week in Dunedin?
For the most part I agree with your points though. I hope you're wrong, but it does seem like the starting pitching will let us down at some point
The predictive peripherals do not tell you when a player will dip, just that they are likely to at some point. Heck, he could spend all of 21 like this, it's unlikely, but possible
Hal sucks
I may end up wrong, for sure, and I have never doubted the value of Cole, so you don't have to act like I have.
Houck is no longer our #6: Whitlock is.
Richards is looking as good as Kluber, but the sample size is small for both. "Never been bad?" The guy was a top 20 pitcher way back, when healthy.
Really? 5 IP by Garcia in the minors is worth anything? Please, jacko. You know better.
Certainly, there is a significant chance Pivetta and Perez "crash and burn" or Eovaldi gets hurt or stumbles, but you seriously neglect the chances your 2-5 starters do, too, or at least your 3-5's.
Yes, Montgomery has put up a 2+WAR season, before, but so has Pivetta. Somehow you only twist the good for Yankee pitchers and the bad for Sox pitchers.
ERod is NOT pitching to his norm. His norm is better than this.
His WHIP is the highest, ever, and by quite a bit.
K rate lowest since '16
So, Sevarino is "ahead" of Sale. Too bad he's not as good.
It is entirely possible Eovaldi puts up a full season of good pitching.
It's entirely possible Pivetta finally does what many felt he could do all along.
It's entirely possible Perez has a decent year.
It's entirely possible Richards does as well as Kluber.
It's entirely possible ERod gets even better at age 28.
It's entirely possible Whitlock bites you guys in the ass.
It's entirely possible Sale is the great addition we need this summer.
The thing is, we may only need 3-4 of these 7 possibilities to happen, maybe less if many of your what ifs don't work out.
Like I said, I still think the Yanks are the faves. You have a better pen and a better ace. The rest is clearly up for debate.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
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