Drew and Middlebrooks
Middlebrooks and Iglesias
Drew and Iglesias
Iglesias and Bogaerts
Bogaerts and Middlebrooks
If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
I honestly think WMB will be traded before 2014. You have an all world talent in Bogaerts and WMB isn't far removed from a pretty successful run last yr. He's still young and still has light tower power. He just doesn't have the approach the sox require from purely offensive contributors. I think the sox live with Iglesias as their SS, even though there is no earthly way he continues to hit high .300s. I think there is a fair chance he hits under .250 next season, but with his slick D, he'd be worth a significant positive in the WAR category. I think Bogaerts moves to 3b, and even though he isn't the most patient in the world, his bat and solid D from that spot will make him a significant positive asset in the WAR category as well. I think WMB goes along with a few other pieces for an ace this offseason, maybe a David Price. And I think the sox might kick the tires on a guy like Morneau in FA
Hal sucks
The only gripe I have with this comment is your assessment of Bogaert's patience at the plate. He's posted a 12.6% BB rate in AAA this year, which is outstanding, particularly for a 20 year old. Eric Karabell said he's very similar to Manny Machado, but with better OBP (I think he's got more raw power, and Machado has better speed and D, but that's neither here nor there). He's got 50 walks already this year. League average BB% at the MLB level this year is 7.8%, and for comparative purposes, David Ortiz has a 12.7% BB rate and Pedroia has an 11.8% BB rate.
Now, his plate discipline took a huge step forward this year, something he's been working on quite a bit, particularly with pitchers pitching backwards to him and throwing a lot of offspeed in fastball counts. But he's adjusted to that, something that was very influential in his promotion to AAA.
Either way, I can definitely see WMB traded, perhaps a deal of (1 of) Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster + WMB + Coyle for Cliff Lee.
I think there is no earthly way the sox part with that package for Lee and his near $25 mil salary. I think the sox make a move for Price. The Rays don't care about dealing in division mostly because they know if they let this guy hit FA, he's gonna sign in division anyway, so it is about the best prospect haul.
Hal sucks
The prospect haul will definitely depend on how much salary the Phillies are willing to eat to make a deal, but I wouldn't mind a trade like that. I'd prefer if the Phillies threw in Michael Young into the trade, and I think we can throw in any rule 5 players in to sweeten the pot if necessary.
Yeah - the money exchanged would have to be fairly significant, perhaps around $15mm coming back with Lee to take his salary down to $20mm/year for the Sox. But I still think it would be a deal that the Sox would be willing to make. They've got significant SP depth to deal from, and with the strides that Iglesias has made (even if he's just a .260/.320/.360 hitter), his defense will make him a 2-3 WAR player, and you're still getting tons of pop from the left side of the infield. Not to mention, if it doesn't work out with Iglesias next year, you've got Cecchini who will be ready to take over at 3B by 2015 (moving Bogaerts to 3B), and Marrero coming up the system by the time Bogaerts will need to move to 3B, and Cecchini could then move to 1B.
From Soxprospects:
The following players are rule 5 eligible after this year:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Luis Bastardo, Jeremiah Bayer, Ricardo Betancourt, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, JD Durbin, Leonel Escobar, Jose Garcia, Zach Gentile, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Charflie Haeger, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Drew Hedman, Jon Hee, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Adalberto Ibarra, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron Kurcz, Lucas LeBlanc, Juan Carlos Linares, Tyler Lockwood, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Lyle Overbay, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Roberto Reyes, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Scott Swinson, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Tyler Wilson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer
I highlighted some to keep an eye on.
The current 40 man roster has about 4 guys who should be off by next year: Hanrahan, Ellsbury, Snyder, and Drew. With Aceves off of it, that leaves 5 slots.
Bradley, Bogaerts, Cecchini, Workman, and Ranaudo are locks. Almanzar is a very interesting piece that they could dish, as well as Bryce Brentz. Vinicio is a guy I've heard they're big on. Chris Hernandez is in AAA right now, struggling a little but could be an add on.
He's played 2B before, not sure about SS.