The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[BSN07]

It's that time of year, User lit the fire with his yearly predictions and now it's time for everyone else to get in on it. The roster is pretty well set for ST and we have dissected every move/non move to absurdity(I jest, this off season has been rather pleasant around here).

 

My predictions take into account career averages, age/career trajectory, and my own opinions on players/teams. I'm not bothering with trying to predict the BP results other than to say I think they are an above average unit.

 

The Offense( also my predicted lineup order )

 

2B Pedroia- I have stated my concerns over his ability to stay healthy and effective over the course of the season. So I am going with 130 games, .270/.350/.440 8 HR, 70 RBI

 

RF Victorino- If healthy I think he starts in RF and Betts gets the Super Two avoidance card and starts the year in the minors. But it's also very possible he forces his way onto the 25 man roster. But for now I will go with Vic. 120 games .270/.340/.450 10 HR 5% RBI.

 

LF Ramirez- I'm expecting big things for Ramirez after him spending the winter under Papis guidance. I think it will make a difference. 140 games, .320/.400/.540 25 HR 100 RBI

 

DH Papi- Papi continues to be Papi but health is always in the back of your mind with him. He looks great and I think he has a good season, 140 games .280/.380/.560 30 HR 105 RBI

 

1B Napoli- I expect a good year from Napoli as it's his last chance at a multi year deal considering his age. 140 games .260/.370/.480 20 HR 85 RBI

 

3B Sandoval- I think he has a good year not great as he transitions to the AL. 155 games, .270/.330/.450 15 HR 80 RBI

 

SS Bogaerts- I'm am anticipating a step forward this year from Bogey 140 games, .270/.360/.440 15 HR 70 RBI

 

C Vasquez- He's a defensive whiz and the bat is gravy. 120 games, .240/.320/.400 8 HR 50 RBI

 

CF Castillo- I'm pulling numbers from air here, there's really no telling with him. 125 games .250/.330/.400 10 HR 50 RBI

 

The Bench:

 

Even tho I expect Betts to begin the year in the minors I am going to put him here as I think he see's a decent amount of games over the course of the year. I really like his potential but I'm going to temper my expectations a touch. 95 games, .280/.350/.400 10 HR 50 RBI

 

Craig- I think he will see time in LF and 1B and occasionally DH if he's on the roster. 90 games, .265/.360..480 15 HR 60 RBI

 

Nava- He is what he is, he will be all over the field. 100 games .260/.350/.350 7 HR 40 RBI

 

Holt- I like him in the super utility role. I think it maximizes his value without getting over exposed. 100 games, .265/.320/.360 5 HR 40 RBI

 

Hanigan- Veteran C enough said really. 40-45 games, .230/.300/.320 5 HR 25 RBI

 

The Rotation:

 

Rick Porcello- 17-8 3.15 ERA 210 IP 30 starts(extended in season)

 

Joe Kelly- 16-10 3.70 ERA 190 IP 25 starts

 

Wade Miley- 15-10 4.00 ERA 220 IP 30 Starts

 

Justin Masterson- 10-7 4.20 ERA 180 IP 25 Starts

 

Buchholz- 15-5 3.50 ERA 180 IP 25 starts

 

The remaining 27 games to be started- 11-16 4.70 ERA

 

 

The Team: I like the team overall. Good potential but also flexible enough to change it up if some players aren't working out. I'm guessing 90-95 wins. 90 is probably in WC contention. 95 they will be in contention for the division.

 

 

The Division:

 

1. Boston

2. Toronto

3. Baltimore

4. New York

5. TB

Edited February 7, 2015 by BSN07

[Kimmi]

Nice work BSN. I like your optimism as well.

 

I don't have time right now to respond in any detail, but let me go on record as saying I like Bosto to win the division, not that it will be an easy task.

[seabeachfred]

It's that time of year, User lit the fire with his yearly predictions and now it's time for everyone else to get in on it. The roster is pretty well set for ST and we have dissected every move/non move to absurdity(I jest, this off season has been rather pleasant around here).

 

My predictions take into account career averages, age/career trajectory, and my own opinions on players/teams. I'm not bothering with trying to predict the BP results other than to say I think they are an above average unit.

 

The Offense( also my predicted lineup order )

 

2B Pedroia- I have stated my concerns over his ability to stay healthy and effective over the course of the season. So I am going with 130 games, .270/.350/.440 8 HR, 70 RBI

 

RF Victorino- If healthy I think he starts in RF and Betts gets the Super Two avoidance card and starts the year in the minors. But it's also very possible he forces his way onto the 25 man roster. But for now I will go with Vic. 120 games .270/.340/.450 10 HR 5% RBI.

 

LF Ramirez- I'm expecting big things for Ramirez after him spending the winter under Papis guidance. I think it will make a difference. 140 games, .320/.400/.540 25 HR 100 RBI

 

DH Papi- Papi continues to be Papi but health is always in the back of your mind with him. He looks great and I think he has a good season, 140 games .280/.380/.560 30 HR 105 RBI

 

1B Napoli- I expect a good year from Napoli as it's his last chance at a multi year deal considering his age. 140 games .260/.370/.480 20 HR 85 RBI

 

3B Sandoval- I think he has a good year not great as he transitions to the AL. 155 games, .270/.330/.450 15 HR 80 RBI

 

SS Bogaerts- I'm am anticipating a step forward this year from Bogey 140 games, .270/.360/.440 15 HR 70 RBI

 

C Vasquez- He's a defensive whiz and the bat is gravy. 120 games, .240/.320/.400 8 HR 50 RBI

 

CF Castillo- I'm pulling numbers from air here, there's really no telling with him. 125 games .250/.330/.400 10 HR 50 RBI

 

The Bench:

 

Even tho I expect Betts to begin the year in the minors I am going to put him here as I think he see's a decent amount of games over the course of the year. I really like his potential but I'm going to temper my expectations a touch. 95 games, .280/.350/.400 10 HR 50 RBI

 

Craig- I think he will see time in LF and 1B and occasionally DH if he's on the roster. 90 games, .265/.360..480 15 HR 60 RBI

 

Nava- He is what he is, he will be all over the field. 100 games .260/.350/.350 7 HR 40 RBI

 

Holt- I like him in the super utility role. I think it maximizes his value without getting over exposed. 100 games, .265/.320/.360 5 HR 40 RBI

 

Hanigan- Veteran C enough said really. 40-45 games, .230/.300/.320 5 HR 25 RBI

 

The Rotation:

 

Rick Porcello- 17-8 3.15 ERA 210 IP 30 starts(extended in season)

 

Joe Kelly- 16-10 3.70 ERA 190 IP 25 starts

 

Wade Miley- 15-10 4.00 ERA 220 IP 30 Starts

 

Justin Masterson- 10-7 4.20 ERA 180 IP 25 Starts

 

Buchholz- 15-5 3.50 ERA 180 IP 25 starts

 

The remaining 27 games to be started- 11-16 4.70 ERA

 

 

The Team: I like the team overall. Good potential but also flexible enough to change it up if some players aren't working out. I'm guessing 90-95 wins. 90 is probably in WC contention. 95 they will be in contention for the division.

 

 

The Division:

 

1. Boston

2. Toronto

3. Baltimore

4. New York

5. TB

 

Keep the good thoughts coming BSN......That's the kind of talk I like to hear. I just hope you are close to being right on the mark.

[Behindenemylines]

I think Sox have a good chance at the AL East. Tampa post Madden era will struggle, Baltimore will take a step back, and age continues to be $pankees problem. I think Toronto will be the Sox biggest obstacle. If Sox are there in July BC will go out an get a front line pitcher. They will be around 90 wins and play meaningful games in September.

[Spitball]

Why do we need two prediction threads?

[a700hitter]

I would love for BSN07's pitcher predictions to be 75% accurate.

[mvp 78]

Mine:

 

Mookie Betts won't win ROY

Pedroia will go on the disabled list after fighting through an injury for most of the year

Miley and Porcello will exceed expectations

Napoli's numbers will be closer to 2013 than 2014

Ramirez and Sandoval will have disappointing seasons

Xander improves at SS, but people generally still complain even when shown defensive metrics

Buchholzis traded midseason

Sox end season in third place with 86 wins

[mvp 78]

If you only start 25 games, you aren't getting close to 180 innings pitched.

[a700hitter]

Mine:

 

Mookie Betts won't win ROY

Pedroia will go on the disabled list after fighting through an injury for most of the year

Miley and Porcello will exceed expectations

Napoli's numbers will be closer to 2013 than 2014

Ramirez and Sandoval will have disappointing seasons

Xander improves at SS, but people generally still complain even when shown defensive metrics

Buchholzis traded midseason

Sox end season in third place with 86 wins

 

Porcello and Miley will do better than this:

 

Rick Porcello- 17-8 3.15 ERA 210 IP 30 starts(extended in season)

 

Wade Miley- 15-10 4.00 ERA 220 IP 30 Starts

[mvp 78]

Miley willbe better than that, Porcello slightly worse.

[a700hitter]

Miley willbe better than that, Porcello slightly worse.

 

I will be thrilled with that.

[mvp 78]

The innings pitched are way too high for both though. Miley will be 180-190 imo.

[sk7326]

Miley has a chance to get to 200+. Porcello is probably a safer bet.

 

If Allen Craig has that find of slash line .280/.360/.440 or whatever, that will give the Sox a very large portfolio of assets to go get a starter. Prediction here is that they do - might be Johnny Cueto, might be Yovani Gallardo, might be somebody who nobody is pegging right now. I also don't think we'll have to wait til the deadline to find out.

[cp176]

Mine:

 

Mookie Betts won't win ROY

Pedroia will go on the disabled list after fighting through an injury for most of the year

Miley and Porcello will exceed expectations

Napoli's numbers will be closer to 2013 than 2014

Ramirez and Sandoval will have disappointing seasons

Xander improves at SS, but people generally still complain even when shown defensive metrics

Buchholzis traded midseason

Sox end season in third place with 86 wins

 

I like your call. 85-90 wins - think they will contend for a playoff spot. Sadly, I agree with respect to Pedroia - he plays the game the right way but with his age and injury history it is a good bet that he will do a stint on the il. Buchholtz will go one of two ways - a very good season or some good but a good amount of time on the il. If Ramirez is healthy enough to play in the number of games that it will take for him to accumulate the numbers that are being projected, I for one will be pleasantly stunned. I say Sandoval takes care of business at third and has a good season. I have come around with respect to XB. I think that he is ready to surprise us all both in the field and a the plate. His off season has been great. Metrics - scouting reports - gut feelings - and all acronyms that make up the statistical world aside, I think that to many things just have to work out perfectly. The planets must all align, for this team to go deep.

[SeanJohn93]

I don't see how you guys can think that Wade Miley will have a 15-10 record. He has a career record of 38-35 pretty much a .500 pitcher in the National League where he has a pitcher and the number 8 hitter who would be number 9 in the AL. You also have to take into account the pressure that comes with playing in Boston.

[a700hitter]

Miley has a chance to get to 200+. Porcello is probably a safer bet.

 

If Allen Craig has that find of slash line .280/.360/.440 or whatever, that will give the Sox a very large portfolio of assets to go get a starter. Prediction here is that they do - might be Johnny Cueto, might be Yovani Gallardo, might be somebody who nobody is pegging right now. I also don't think we'll have to wait til the deadline to find out.

 

Keep hope alive for acquiring a starter. I would be shocked if we added an arm like Cueto. I expect that the Reds will try to extend him.

[sk7326]

I am very bullish on XB. For guys his age, the jumps are often not steady and they can be large. He also has been able to figure things out at every level he has played at. The suggested line I think could be - not the floor but a relatively pessimistic outcome.

[SeanJohn93]

I think that Castillo will surpass BSN's predictions as well. Here is his stats from only 10 games with the Sox last season. .333 batting average, 2 hr, 6 ribi. Barring injury, I expect him to have a great year.

[sk7326]

Keep hope alive for acquiring a starter. I would be shocked if we added an arm like Cueto. I expect that the Reds will try to extend him.

 

It's possible - I don't find it particularly hopeful. Last year names moved - significant ones too - for a fairly modest return all things considered. I think the time of a 1997 Pedro Martinez being available for financial hardship reasons during the offseason are basically over. I mean outside of the Twins, Astros and Phillies, Diamondbacks and Rockies - everybody else can at least sell the playoffs as a possibility right now. And this is not the NBA where being a lower seed might just be setting yourself up to be a punching bag - getting in the tournament means a real chance to win the whole thing.

 

Can the Sox hang in long enough to be buyers? Let's put it this way, last year everything went wrong - and the Sox could not really hit the eject button until the All-Star Break. The 2nd WC position means as bad as Boston was, they were just a 15-5 stretch away from fixing things. All you have to do is expect this year to be better than last - in any form - and I think the Sox will be in a position to buy.

[cp176]

I am very bullish on XB. For guys his age, the jumps are often not steady and they can be large. He also has been able to figure things out at every level he has played at. The suggested line I think could be - not the floor but a relatively pessimistic outcome.

 

It won't be about maturity and it won't be an accident when he out performs expectations. His off season training regimen I think will bear him well. He is a smart kid who saw what he needed to do and could do to improve.

[a700hitter]

It won't be about maturity and it won't be an accident when he out performs expectations. His off season training regimen I think will bear him well. He is a smart kid who saw what he needed to do and could do to improve.

 

I have not read anything about his off season training program. He clearly had a lot of work to do on his footwork in the field.

[Spudboy]

I have not read anything about his off season training program. He clearly had a lot of work to do on his footwork in the field.

 

I saw one article that said he was working very hard. He should be.

 

As should everyone else on the Sox roster. This team stunk last year.

[cp176]

I have not read anything about his off season training program. He clearly had a lot of work to do on his footwork in the field.

 

 

I have and he has. If he doesn't show good improvement with respect to his footwork and overall quickness, I will be surprised. It won't be because he hasn't been working. That is all that we can ask from the kid. Big year for him one way or the other!

[mvp 78]

I don't see how you guys can think that Wade Miley will have a 15-10 record. He has a career record of 38-35 pretty much a .500 pitcher in the National League where he has a pitcher and the number 8 hitter who would be number 9 in the AL. You also have to take into account the pressure that comes with playing in Boston.

 

Arizona is a suckier baseball team. Wins are a function of all the players aroynd you. The Boston bats will help Miley win a few ugly games.

[a700hitter]

I saw one article that said he was working very hard. He should be.

 

As should everyone else on the Sox roster. This team stunk last year.

 

That is good to know.

[BSN07]

Why do we need two prediction threads?

 

Because this is a thread for everyone's prediction's. User's is a specific yearly piece, just like a700's ST thread from his time in Fort Myers. But there will also be a "general" ST thread.

[Palodios]

My 2015 Red Sox prediction is that the team will see several players take their careers to the next level.

 

The team has so many players that could become borderline all-stars next year. Xander, Mookie, Rodriguez and Owens are highly projectable. Workman is finally getting the chance stay in the pen, where he thrived in a World Series run. Coaches are raving about Castillo.

 

Masterson became much more effective against lefties in 2013 before getting injured. He could see a resurgence. Porcello/Miley/Masterson/Kelly can all benefit from having a solid defense behind them, and the entire staff will love throwing to Vazquez/Hannigan.

 

I don't have stats, and I can't even say which players will start to thrive, but it just seems like the Red Sox will finally start churning out top players again.

[Bellhorn04]

My only prediction is that I will be drinking a lot of rum and Cherry Kool-Aid cocktails this year.

[User Name]

I don't see how you guys can think that Wade Miley will have a 15-10 record. He has a career record of 38-35 pretty much a .500 pitcher in the National League where he has a pitcher and the number 8 hitter who would be number 9 in the AL. You also have to take into account the pressure that comes with playing in Boston.

 

But he pitched in Arizona, which sucks. W-L are for, for the millionth time, a terrible indication of a pitcher's talent level. If this team hits, Miley or anyone else can win 15+ unless they get constantly destroyed by the other team. Pitcher wins are mostly a reflection of the team he plays for. Ask King Felix, or on the other end of the spectrum, Tim Wakefield.

[Spudboy]

I see Miley as nothing worse than most of the mid wrung starting pitchers around the league.

 

With an offense that functions well as this year's lineup suggests, I can see Miley getting 15 wins.

 

I can also see him losing 11-12 games.

 

There remain way to many ifs about this team. But Miley has decent talent and is still kind of young. Plus his personality will play well in this market. It's easier to perform well when you are liked.