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Thread: A Realistic View at 2016

  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A Realistic View at 2016

    For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

    Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

    $187.8M Total

    $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross
    (Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

    The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

    Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

    $195M

    Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

    $206M

    That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

    Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

    Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

    More to come. Thanks!

    Sox4ever

  2. #2
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

    Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

    $187.8M Total

    $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross
    (Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

    The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

    Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

    $195M

    Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

    $206M

    That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

    Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

    Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

    More to come. Thanks!

    Sox4ever
    For all the talk by the FO about not wanting to commit big contracts to aging pitchers and to look for value contracts, they have done a terrible job at getting value. They have loaded up a bloated payroll with worthless assets. Few of those contracts have any value as assets in a trade. Craig's and Panda's contracts look like sunk costs. We will get nothing in return for either of them -- not $ or talent. I can't getting back more than a fraction of Castillo's contract. They will need to clear a lot of payroll before Betts and XB come up for Arbitration. That will no be easy to do, and it will impact whether we can acquire a #2 pitcher.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

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    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

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    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  3. #3
    Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

    I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

  4. #4
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingface View Post
    Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

    I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.
    Especially since the organization's weak spot is drafting and developing top pitchers. We have plenty of positional talent in the organization to put together attractive packages.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  5. #5
    Exactly.........I hate to say it but I have the horrible feeling they will find a way to mess with Espinoza. I think we're cursed in regards to pitcher developement! Anybody have any idea who could be available by trade or FA? Way too early....I know.....but could be interesting. I think we need to get off the 'let's trade for Gray or Sale ideas. These are teams that are trying to BUILD around these great young pitchers.....not do the Sox favors by trading them for unproven lower level talent.

  6. #6
    Too old for this User Name?'s Avatar
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    The Sox don't need a standout #2 this year, and they don't need it for next year. They need health from the rotation, a reliable pitcher, health from the BP (add another live arm if they have to replace Koji) and a manager who does not have his head firmly up his ass.

    The DH/LF conondrum can be sorted internally (Travis looks like he's just about MLB ready offensively, and one of Moncada/Benintendi will probably be ready for next year). As many people have famously said over the years: "It's the pitching, stupid".
    We miss you Mike.

  7. #7
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Other than Ortiz, our starting positional players are all locked up for 3 or more years (counting 2015):

    7 years: Price (with 3 year opt out)
    6 years: Pedroia
    5 years: Sandoval (team option after 4)Castillo, Betts, JBJ, Vazquez,Smith Wright, Elias, Layne
    4 years: Ramirez (vesting option after 3), Porcello, Bogaerts, Holt, Rutledge, Workman
    3 years: Kimbrel (team option after 2), Kelly, Ross
    2 years: Young, Hanigan (team option after this year)
    1 year: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa

    First arb year not established: ERod, Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes, N Ramirez and everyone else on the 40 man roster not listed here.

    In some ways, it's nice to know you don't have any big positional player shoes to fill after Big Papi this winter, but with sunken cost players like Sandoval, Craig and maybe Castillo, HanRam and possibly others, it's hard to not think our budget problems might get worse before they get better.

    Having Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Devers and some others on the horizon may help us avoid needing free agents to fill the gaps, but who knows at this point?

    With our pitching staff, we have a lot more flexibility, but also a lot more need. We can't really count on any of our younger pitchers except for maybe ERod and eventually Espinoza. Porcello could turn into a sunken cost or a huge overpay. Buch's slot will be open this winter or next. Kelly is still largely a question mark. Losing Uehara and Tazawa is going to be hard to deal with.

    I think the biggest financial expenditures in the near future will have to be on our pitching staff. We're going to have to make do with our line-up for now and hope our top prospects rise quickly to replace the flame-outs and bums.

  8. #8
    Resident Old Fart Spudboy's Avatar
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    Why are you assuming that both Koji and Tazawa will be gone after 2016?
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    Why are you assuming that both Koji and Tazawa will be gone after 2016?
    I don't think he's assuming that. They will just be FA's so their money doesn't count towards anything TECHNICALLY. I think signing Taz right now and locking him up for 2 years and Koji for another year at a reduced rate could go a long way though.

    This has become a BP league. Whatever we can do to give us a great BP and a solid staff will be HUGE. Right now the SP are not looking too solid.....albeit too early to really judge that one yet....

  10. #10
    Resident Old Fart Spudboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingface View Post
    I don't think he's assuming that. They will just be FA's so their money doesn't count towards anything TECHNICALLY. I think signing Taz right now and locking him up for 2 years and Koji for another year at a reduced rate could go a long way though.

    This has become a BP league. Whatever we can do to give us a great BP and a solid staff will be HUGE. Right now the SP are not looking too solid.....albeit too early to really judge that one yet....
    Okay, cool.

    I like your idea of signing both, although I would be more comfortable doing so a little later in the season so we can see that both still have enough to be worth signing.

    Everyone seems preoccupied with Koji being 41. I say hogwash. As long as he can bring that splitter to each game he should be useful. No, I do not expect 2013 Koji every game.

    For years I have seen Taz as the work horse of our BP staff. I think that he gets over used and hope that the Sox can stay away from wearing him out by July.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  11. #11
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    Tazawa's forkball makes him a keeper.

  12. #12
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Yes, I meant their contractual obligation will be gone and in need or replacing. Of course, we could replace their contracts with new ones and keep one or both of them. Uehara will be another year older, so I doubt he'll demand $9M, but if Tazawa has a good year, he'll demand more than he's getting now.

    My main point was that I think almost all our free agent money will need to go towards improving our pitching staff. The positional players are all locked up for several years with many prospects looking to steal their jobs or be blocked, so I don't see a valid argument for spending long and large on a 1Bman, 3Bman or LF'er next winter.

  13. #13
    "Just one more thing..." Northern Star's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    Okay, cool.

    I like your idea of signing both, although I would be more comfortable doing so a little later in the season so we can see that both still have enough to be worth signing.

    Everyone seems preoccupied with Koji being 41. I say hogwash. As long as he can bring that splitter to each game he should be useful. No, I do not expect 2013 Koji every game.

    For years I have seen Taz as the work horse of our BP staff. I think that he gets over used and hope that the Sox can stay away from wearing him out by July.
    They're already talking about limiting Koji's workload. I think you have to look elsewhere for next season.
    Priorities:
    1. Yankees lose
    2. Red Sox win

    Quote Originally Posted by joeycaps View Post
    So shut up because you have no idea on what you say on anything as evidence of some of your ridiculous posts.

  14. #14
    All-Star wyo-sox's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingface View Post
    Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

    I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.
    I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?
    2013 never did I doubt!

  15. #15
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    I'm still not convinced on Shaw, but his bat is looking more and more legit every day. I don't like his defense enough to view him as a long term 3B solution.

    Eventually, I see Moncada at 3B (or possibly LF) with Devers in the wings.

    That leaves HanRam, Shaw and Sandoval sharing 1B and DH duties while backing up 3B as well. Sam Travis has an outside shot of crashing the party as well.

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