This isn't really about Farrell as much as it is about all MLB managers. My thesis is simple: yes, some managers are better than others, but by and large we give MLB managers way too much credit for wins and losses. Unlike NFL coaches, for example, they only have to manage a few players, and in a solid start perhaps just 9 or 10 or 11 of a 25 man roster is used.
Good NFL coaches, I've heard, virtually live in the practice facility or at least spend endless hours going over film and preparing the next game. MLB managers have a lot more games, but could easily show up 3 hours before game time and miss nothing of importance. They show up earlier, of course, because that is their office. And during a game there is ample time to review all kinds of statistics and tendencies before any move is made. Even the lineup card is a piece of cake because, guess what, the manager only has 13 position players for the 9 lineup slots. Casey Stengal was known for platooning, especially in the outfield, but what could be simpler than starting a righty bat against a lefty starter or vice versa?
Now I happen to think Joe Maddon is a pretty good manager. Right now his Cubs are 15-5, so he must be good, right? But guess what? The Cubs are second in MLB in runs scored (and way ahead of the Sox) and 2d in MLB in ERA. How many smarts does it take to win with that kind of talent?
I happen to think the Yankees Girardi is pretty good too, but his team is mired in last place because their hitting is so-so and their pitching is almost as bad as ours.
Which brings me to Farrell. Last year I would have been fine with firing him even though I thought he had a wretched rotation and some lineup players--Sandoval, Napoli, Ramirez, and one or more of the outfielder--who were dragging the team down. Moreover, I thought he did a great job two years before taking the team to a WS win after a losing season under Bobby V. This year I have no problem with the thesis that the FO has given Farrell fair warning: win or else.
That said, it is also apparent to me that Farrell, while he does enjoy a terrific run-scoring lineup, once again is struggling with the world's worst rotation and a closer with a high era. 11-9 is about right for this team, whoever is managing it. PIck your manager, bring him in, and I am confident he would manage about as well, but not better. Why? Because managers don't make that much difference.