2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[mvp 78]

OK say we Trade and get Machado, what's the contract, that guarantees he stays? Otherwise he's walking after one year. Don't get caught up on who we gave up, just the salary. Your best guess.

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

[mvp 78]

10 @ $300m is my guess.

I think he would want to have a higher AAV. Highest AAV right now is Greinke at 34.4M.

[OH FOY!]

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

Good guess. I like the 8 years too.

[Bellhorn04]

A 37.5 mill AAV really chews up a lot of payroll room LOL

[Hitch]

I think he would want to have a higher AAV. Highest AAV right now is Greinke at 34.4M.

Yeah possibly. 8 years definitely get's it done, but I wouldn't do that contract. As Bellhorn said, it eats up too much of our budget.

[OH FOY!]

When does the contract start? This year? That might be the difference, no? If any doubt that its too much, for you, then trading for him is not smart.

[OH FOY!]

Duquette was always a good talent evaluator. The old time kind, probably went to all our Minor League games, and saw in person our best talent. He built a dominating Expo team, by Trading for other teams Prospects, and Drafting.
He's no dummy.

[cp176]

When you don't have any pitching you have to get it from trades or free agency. Dombrowski did both and has been lambasted in some quarters for virtually every big-ticket move.

DD is going to get lambasted for whatever he does. GMs tend to. With Hosmer off the table, I would agree with Oldtimer, give Boras a number with a deadline attached and if he is offended by that so be it. He would likely wind up playing somewhere else for less than what the Sox would pay. If DD had acted earlier, we would have had to sift through the pages of whatever he did being done in panic mode. He is a tough negoiator and and now people seem worried and upset by his lack of moves. Also for what it is worth, if JD signs here it would not bother me one bit if the Machado trade was then made even if there was no guarantee that he would be with us after one season. I don't like Machado but I do like his game. I think Bogaerts would be easy to replace this year, next year, or next next year.

[Hitch]

When does the contract start? This year? That might be the difference, no? If any doubt that its too much, for you, then trading for him is not smart.

I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for one year of Machado. I know it'll take an extra piece or two, to get it done, but if we could get it to a reasonable deal I'd make the trade, regardless of the extension.

[harmony]

I nominate "desperate" as the most overused word of the Hot Stove season.

[Jack Flap]

Really? One of the things that's usually understood in these long term contracts is that you're getting his best years first and you pay later for the right to those best years.

Isn't that kind of the appeal of the opt-out, though? You get what are likely the best, least risky years, and let someone else pick up the tab for the later, riskier ones. That's if everything goes well, of course...if things go south (as they seem to have with Price and the Red Sox, unfortunately), you're stuck with the entire contract, but that would be the case with or without the opt-out.

If Price had already had three CY caliber years in baseball he could opt out and leave a hole in the Sox pitching staff that most likely wouldn't be filled with $30MM. Those CY guys don't grow on trees and they don't come cheap.

Spending what's left of that $30MM on younger players after signing someone who isn't CY caliber isn't a bad idea, as long as the team doesn't plan to be competitive every year.

But this kind of assumes that, if Price was worth the money in years 1-3, he will be in years 4-7 as well, and I don't think that follows...sure, he might be, and you might end up wishing you had him for those last few years at $30 million, but I think I'd take that chance. With how often these mega free agent deals turn out poorly on the back end, I'd take a 30-32 y/o Price at 3/90 and let someone else worry about ages 33+ every time.

But that's just me, and I realize it runs against the conventional wisdom on opt outs. I see it as an easy win-win for the player, obviously, but neutral at worst for the team, with a chance at getting out from under a looming albatross if circumstances break just right...

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[Jack Flap]

I haven't found a link for this yet (will post it if I do), but over on SoxProspects it was posted that Jim Bowden said in a discussion on MLB Network that the Red Sox had offered a position player off their MLB roster (maybe Bogaerts?) and Jason Groome for Machado. Since that, meager as it is, is as close to real news as we've had in a while, I was curious what you all thought.

For my part, though I'd love to have Machado the player, trading significant assets to rent him for one year just doesn't make sense. In a down year for both, Machado wasn't significantly more valuable than Bogaerts in 2017 (2.8 vs 3.2 fWAR / 3.5 vs 2.2 bWAR), while Xander comes with an extra year of control and I still don't feel like we've seen his best yet.

I can't see it...and yet the rumors aren't going away.

[mvp 78]

A 37.5 mill AAV really chews up a lot of payroll room LOL

Yup, but the question was: what's the contract, that guarantees he stays?

That's the amount that guarantees he stays and avoids FA.

[Hitch]

I can't see it...and yet the rumors aren't going away.

The rumours are all off the same article to be fair. There isn't new news on the topic, just recycled news.

[S5Dewey]

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

That's too much money to reward a punk with just because he can play baseball.