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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #3046
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary.

    True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.
    I had little faith in Bruce.

    He's had a couple decent seasons recently .832 and .815, but not really all that great.

    Yes, the 36 and 33 HRs the last two season would fill that clean-up slot nicely. Yes, $39M/3 beats the hell out of $125M/5.

    I just look back on 2014 (.654) and 2015 (.729) and he scares the hell out of me!

  2. #3047
    Martinez is clearly a better offensive player Bruce, but if you can save around 100 million by signing Bruce, I'm very open to the idea. They are the same age--I also like the idea of a 3 year commitment to Bruce versus a 5 or 6 year commitment to Martinez. There really isn't a lot downside to Bruce's contract. When he declines due to age, he will be long gone. A Bruce and Hanley platoon at DH might be good enough for 2018 and then next year that 100 million saved goes toward Machado or Harper.

    I also wonder if Martinez is really a "winning" player. He isn't satisfied with 120 million, or whatever lucrative offer is out there, and instead wants 180 million and is willing to skip part of spring training to get the contract he wants. An organization might not want to pursue players like that--it creates a culture that is arguably antithetical to winning.

    Of course, Dombrowski will sign Martinez even if he has to overpay. He has overpaid for pretty much every asset he has acquired (as Red Sox President) and so why stop now.....
    Last edited by Fan_since_Boggs; 01-12-2018 at 02:38 PM.

  3. #3048
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary.

    True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.
    Bruce hit lefty. I think the DH position needs to be filled by a righty who can sub in the OF once in a while for depth.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  4. #3049
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I also wonder if Martinez is really a "winning" player. He isn't satisfied with 120 million, or whatever lucrative offer is out there, and instead wants 180 million and is willing to skip part of spring training to get the contract he wants. An organization might not want to pursue players like that--it creates a culture that is arguably antithetical to winning.
    Um....
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  5. #3050
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Gotcha.

    I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.
    The waiting game of Boras is going to make the timing of his alternative plans a little tricky and unpredictable.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    [T]he conclusion to be drawn is that there is no practical value in seeking this ideal lineup, and in that case any way in which it might be meaningfully termed "best" is irrelevant, academic at best, pedantic at worst
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  6. #3051
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-...g-off-a-cliff/

    Here's a long article from the Tribune. Doesn't say much of anything of note tho. Makes a case that he should be worth about $150M.

    If you want to take the contract down to six years, then the number comes back at $150 million. Scott Boras might be looking for that extra year, but that year shouldn’t tack on another $25 million to $30 million. Martinez is unlikely to make up for that last year with his production in the first few.

    Keep in mind, I’ve used only hitting comps to arrive at these numbers. For the most part, baserunning and fielding do not favor Martinez. We don’t have to ignore those two aspects of the game to get J.D. Martinez his $150 million, but we have to discount how bad the numbers make Martinez look. He can be a below-average baserunner and defender and still return a $150 million investment. He just can’t be as bad as his numbers last season or over the course of his career indicate. I think it is fair to expect two more really good seasons from Martinez. After that, the range of outcomes is enormous. Expecting good production in 2020 is a risk that any signing club is going to have to take.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  7. #3052
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    The waiting game of Boras is going to make the timing of his alternative plans a little tricky and unpredictable.
    Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

  8. #3053
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.
    This is why I think DD should start sending smoke signals that he is interested in other bats.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  9. #3054
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    This is why I think DD should start sending smoke signals that he is interested in other bats.
    Dave Dombrowski would be remiss if he hasn't done that since the start of the offseason.

    Red Sox fans may be obsessed with J.D. Martinez but I suspect the Boston front office has been surveying the entire market all along.

  10. #3055
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Dave Dombrowski would be remiss if he hasn't done that since the start of the offseason.

    Red Sox fans may be obsessed with J.D. Martinez but I suspect the Boston front office has been surveying the entire market all along.
    I'm sure they are surveying the field, but I think they need to start flying players to Boston to get JD worried.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  11. #3056
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I'm sure they are surveying the field, but I think they need to start flying players to Boston to get JD worried.
    May have already happened.

    The agency community is fairly small and insiders know more about ongoing negotiations than the general public does.

    For all I know J.D. Martinez has rejected a Red Sox offer and the parties have gone their separate ways.

    Or not.

  12. #3057
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    May have already happened.

    The agency community is fairly small and insiders know more about ongoing negotiations than the general public does.

    For all I know J.D. Martinez has rejected a Red Sox offer and the parties have gone their separate ways.

    Or not.
    If that happened, we'd know about it. Shit, if all the "Gerald Green is at Logan" sightings on Twitter are any indication, I don't think they'd be able to sneak LoMo or Duda through security.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  13. #3058
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

    Huh! Both the change in the way the game is being played i.e more emphasis on relief pitching along with a more aggressive approach toward hitting are interconnected as is the projection of future value. To say one is changing more rapidly than the other is a distinction without a difference since there is a direct correlation between the two coincident to the arrival of the new breed of younger more data driven baseball executives.

  14. #3059
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    He's eyeing to be ready, but he won't be. Players aren't the best barometer for their own timetable (i.e. remember Price's magically healing arm).
    I agree that being ready by Opening Day is a bit optimistic, but this does give me reason to believe that he'll be back sooner than originally expected.

  15. #3060
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer.

    I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer.

    Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.
    It's possible, but I have a difficult time believing that the Red Sox do not have the best offer out there as far as money is concerned. If there is another team that has offered 6 years, then I hope Dombrowski doesn't try to top it. But by all accounts, that is what JD is waiting for - that 6th year.

    If it's just a matter of increasing the AAV on 5 years to top another team's offer, I think Dombrowski would have already done that, within reason.

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