A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[harmony]

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello:

https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/...tour-part-two/

[cp176]

Performances go up and down during a career --even during prime years. Look at a guy like Porcello. He is an extreme example, but many guys experience ups and downs especially early in their careers. I find it hard to wring my hands about a player under performing if he performs to his career norms. Of course you need enough data to establish a career norm. We don't have that on Benintendi yet. We really don't know what he will be yet. We have 2000 PAs on Bradley, and although he had a terrible start to his career, he might have a career season that evens that out. I can see that his career norm will probably increase for a few years and last year was an inexplicable off year for him. Betts also has over 200 PAs. His career norms may be skewed upward by his 2016 performance. It is possible that 2016 is his career year. If so, 2017 isn't that far off his career norm, but it is an under performing year due to injury. HanRam has had .700 OPS seasons in 6 of the last 9 seasons. That is starting to become his norm. At what point does a .750 OPS season no longer become under performance for him. I think 6 out of 9 times is enough. I can't see calling Leon's 2017 an underperformance. His 2016 performance will end up being far and a way his career season. 2017 will be much closer to his norm.

This is pretty much the way it worked, will work, and has always worked. One thing more for me is that I expect a very good year out of Price. If he stays healthy, having Sale and Price leading that staff is what we have all expected should and would happen.

[cp176]

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello:

https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/...tour-part-two/

Porcello's bounce back should make him an effective number 3 starter.

[cp176]

I think we really need to sign JDM. I think with him and a full season of Devers and with more AB's from Nunez we would have a very strong offense.

With a full year of Nunez, Devers, and possibly Martinez we could have an offense that finally looks pretty good.

[Kimmi]

I think the key word here is should.

'Should' is the key word. And since so many of them took a step backward last year, I think it's reasonable to expect them to take a step forward this year. They are still approaching their prime.

[Kimmi]

Fair enough.

I would bet, if I was a betting man, that at least one from Bogey & JBJ have a significantly better 2018 than 2017.

I think Betts does better than 2017 but maybe not as well as 2016.

I am also encouraged by getting more PAs from Nunez and Devers (at the expense of Pablo, Holt, Rutledge, Marrero...)

Adding JDM would be a big plus, as we'd finally have our clean-up hitter. That allows the rest of our players to fill slots they are better suited for hitting.

I expect Vaz to do a little worse.

HRam and Pedey are wild cards.

Moreland is what he is.

Beni could be the key. He could have a huge year. He could be about the same.

I've hopeful that our offense will get better, but adding JDM would turn my optimism into certainty.

I don't think anyone is expecting breakout or career seasons from all of these guys. I'm not even expecting Mookie to repeat his 2016 season. But it is very reasonable to expect that most of the guys improve over what they did last season.

[notin]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

[Kimmi]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

Break out the WAPM!

Bogaerts could indeed have a breakout. Mookie could have another MVP type season. It's not that far fetched.

[a700hitter]

If Bogaerts is healthy, I could see a breakout.

I may need to dust off the WAPM and see...

XB provides good offense for a SS, but I don't think he has the bat speed or a consistent plate approach for him to have a breakout season. The slider is his krypronite. He is helpless against it unless he goes into slap mode, in which case he has no power at all. In order to drive the ball, he has guess right on a fastball. I have never seen a player with such completely different swings.

[notin]

Break out the WAPM!

Bogaerts could indeed have a breakout.

The WAPM has spoken!

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)


Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

[jacksonianmarch]

Players who are entering their prime should be on the rise, no?

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

[harmony]

The WAPM has spoken!

A better season, albeit not a freakish breakout.

.276/.357/.447 (.804 OPS) with 18 HRs for Bogaerts.

(Worth pointing out the WAPM does better for mid season hot streaks.)


Steamer is projecting .290/.353/.445 with 16HRs. I don't like it when I'm that close to Steamer...

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...ogaexa01.shtml

ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...oston-red-sox/

[Bellhorn04]

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

The normal age curve indicates they should still be rising a little, doesn't it?

That's all you can really look at, is norms.

The best thing is to look at their 2018 projections. I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of the projections myself, but they are the most scientific thing we have.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bell, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I don't think Betts is going to be top 2 in MVP voting every year. I don't anticipate JBJ is a 5 WAR player going forward. But they are capable of more than what they did in 2017

[moonslav59]

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

Certainly could be the case, but the Sox players who had not reached prime had two previous seasons better than 2017. That is not a common occurrence for all 3 pre-prime players to do worse than their previous two seasons....maybe one, maybe two, but not all three.