A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Jack Flap]

Another reason why trading for Giancarlo is the priority

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

[moonslav59]

Most Power since 2014 (Active players with 1500+ PAs)

ISO
1. Stanton .301
2. Trout .278
3. JD Martinez .274
8. Donaldson .254
11. Harper .242
12. Duda .242
18. Votto .227
22. Bautista .226
23. Abreu .224
25. Frazier .221
29. Machado .213
36. Valbuena .207
37. Napoli .207
41. Granderson .205
45. Mostakas .201
49. Santana .199
52. Morrison .196
63. Moreland .187

114. Hosmer .160

SLG%
2. JDM .574
3. Stanton .573
10. Donaldson .531
12. Abreu .524
32. Duda .480
50. Frazier .464
56. Moustakas .459
66. Hosmer .449
73. Santana .445
86. Morrison .438


2016-2017 (650+ PAs)
ISO
1. Judge
2. Stanton
3. JD M
7 Donaldson
12 Bruce
13. Duda
18. Moustakas
32. Grandy
37 Morrison
41 Frazier
53 Santana
67 Abreu
72 Cozart
101 Moreland
139 out of 253 Hosmer

SLG
1. JD M
11. Donaldson
22. Moustakas
26. Abreu
29 Bruce
63. Santana
69. Morrison
70. Duda
88. Hosmer

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

[oldtimer]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

The Sox do have some holes to fill and some moves to consider, in addition to the pitching needs.

Holes to fill exist at second and first base. In addition there is a need for at least one power bat. Those two might be combined to some degree. Both Pedey and Hanley are question marks. Clearly we could go with the resources we currently have on the 40 man or injured list for 2nd but at risk of less than stellar offense. Ist is more of an open issue, especially if we use Hanley for DH only.

The moves to consider have been discussed ad infinitum already. They are:

1. Move Devers to 1st and look for a replacement this year at 3rd. Possible improvement to the IF defense and possible addition of a solid bat.

2. Move JBJ and look for a trade or FA to fill in the OF. Possible strengthening of the offense while taking a hit on defense.

3. Move Bogey for a replacement SS like Cozart. Slightly better fielding and hitting. I'm opposed to that move as I believe Bogey can make a significant improvement on offense.

4. Trade Holt and replace him with another super utility player like Nunez (might solve 2nd base issue) or fill in from our 40 man or ML rosters.

Big long term contracts for aging stars should be considered as too risky with great younger players available next year.

[moonslav59]

The Sox do have some holes to fill and some moves to consider, in addition to the pitching needs.

Holes to fill exist at second and first base. In addition there is a need for at least one power bat. Those two might be combined to some degree. Both Pedey and Hanley are question marks. Clearly we could go with the resources we currently have on the 40 man or injured list for 2nd but at risk of less than stellar offense. Ist is more of an open issue, especially if we use Hanley for DH only.

The moves to consider have been discussed ad infinitum already. They are:

1. Move Devers to 1st and look for a replacement this year at 3rd. Possible improvement to the IF defense and possible addition of a solid bat.

2. Move JBJ and look for a trade or FA to fill in the OF. Possible strengthening of the offense while taking a hit on defense.

3. Move Bogey for a replacement SS like Cozart. Slightly better fielding and hitting. I'm opposed to that move as I believe Bogey can make a significant improvement on offense.

4. Trade Holt and replace him with another super utility player like Nunez (might solve 2nd base issue) or fill in from our 40 man or ML rosters.

Big long term contracts for aging stars should be considered as too risky with great younger players available next year.

I don't think we'll spend large on a temporary fix at 2B. I think we go with Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero and look for a Nunez type, if they fizzle out.

I think a legitimate clean-up hitter is our number one priority. I do NOT think Duda is that guy, but he's a better power hitter than Moreland was, and he's cheap. If we can spend the rest of the available money on a SP'er, RP'er and 4th OF'er (maybe with some pop as well), that might be enough.

[mvp 78]

There is no Dana, only Zuul.

Here's his slugging since 2014: 553/535/535/690. Seems pretty consistent until last year when his hard contact % increased to 49%.

RBI is a garbage stat that is only reflective on how good of an offense you have in front of you.

[mvp 78]

JD is the headliner bat on the market. But he's the type of hitter that whoever signs will regret and try to trade in 3 or 4 years.

He soon turns 31 years old, basically the same age Hanley Ramirez was when he signed in Boston. Prior to Boston, Hanley had a better career than JD. He came here for fewer years and less money than JD wants. And most fans want his shorter deal gone already, to the point where many advocate signing Lucas Duda or Logan Morrison in order to steal playing time and stop Hanley's option from vesting...

A better comp for JD is Jose Bautista.

[mvp 78]

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

I think they should try to kick the tires on both.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying I love the guy, but for about $6M/1, we could probably get Duda and hope HRam can play 1B. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and a 4th OF'er and wait until next year.

Duda is a platoon guy. I only go for him if you can get him at platoon DH prices.

[OH FOY!]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

[moonslav59]

Duda is a platoon guy. I only go for him if you can get him at platoon DH prices.

He's about 50 points better than Moreland vs RHPs and 25 points worse vs LHP.

Yes, a platoon is best, but he's better than Moreland overall.

We could maybe "rest" HRam vs RHPs more often than is needed, assuming we sign a 1B/OF type and Duda.

[moonslav59]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

Nobody has paid the "price" yet.

I keep hearing there's a premium on power hitter- maybe for the Sox, but to me, power hitters are everywhere now.

Supply and demand should be showing the cost going down on power hitters.

[Slasher9]

I don't really follow this logic, as Giancarlo will cost more years and money plus giving up some sort of talent as well. I certainly wouldn't rule it out if the trade cost isn't too bad, but I still think JD is a fit. Just because Boras' first ask is $200 million doesn't mean he's getting it.

because Giancarlo is 1 billion times better than JD for not much more $.
WAR since 2011:
Giancarlo: 32.3
JD: 13.7

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not high on any FA's now with QO's, especially now 200 Million on Martinez. Need a Trade. Looks like FA's are using HR's to jack up the price.

No QO with Martinez - because he was traded in 2017.

[mvp 78]

because Giancarlo is 1 billion times better than JD for not much more $.
WAR since 2011:
Giancarlo: 32.3
JD: 13.7

It's closer when you only count seasons 2014 on (which are probably more important). However, Giancarlo IS definitely a much better bet than JD. My only worry is that you would have to give up something of value to get him. If it's a few be level prospects, it's a good option.