A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

The 40 Man Roster:
Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost):
Young $6.5M
Moreland $5.5M
Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)
Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)
Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)
Abad $2.0M
Fister $1.8M
Boyer $0.6M
Total: ~$22M

The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost):
[37 non-free agents on roster]
$31.0M Price
$22.0M HRam
$20.6M Porcello
($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget)
$13.8M Pedroia
$12.0M Kimbrel
($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget)
$11.5M Sale (option)
Total Under Contract: ~$131M

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)
~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3)
~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3)
~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3)
~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4)
~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3)
~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4)
~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3)
~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4)
~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3)
~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3)
~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3)
~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3)
~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3)
~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4)
$52.2M in arbs

Pre-arbs:
Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists)
Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M

Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted):
$188M +13M Player benefits= $201M

Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M

Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings.

Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark.

Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss):
Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract):
Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter.
The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate.

Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots.

1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso
3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar
SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
2B/DH/IF: Nunez
DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson
SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn

Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B.

Let the debates begin...

[moonslav59]

Link to 2017 Part III

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...=1#post1102497

[jacksonianmarch]

The biggest question is... What is your 2018 budget? If the goal is to stay close to the max, then no big moves will be made. If Henry says, fuck it, we re-set, lets go for the win, then all bets are off. One thing I will put out there. Without a big addition to the middle of your order, your team will not win in the post season. Your offense must improve. The Astros, the Indians, the Yankees all have big offenses. Minnesota is on the uptick offensively as well. The Jays and the O's have offensive potential as well. You need to be able to change with the times and hit homers

[moonslav59]

The biggest question is... What is your 2018 budget? If the goal is to stay close to the max, then no big moves will be made. If Henry says, fuck it, we re-set, lets go for the win, then all bets are off. One thing I will put out there. Without a big addition to the middle of your order, your team will not win in the post season. Your offense must improve. The Astros, the Indians, the Yankees all have big offenses. Minnesota is on the uptick offensively as well. The Jays and the O's have offensive potential as well. You need to be able to change with the times and hit homers

I think we reset this year, so we could go over next year.

I think we go $30M+ over.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think we reset this year, so we could go over next year.

I think we go $30M+ over.

Then the question remains. Do you go $30 mil over on short term deals or do you give out long term deals? Short term deals keep you flexible to re-sign FA's. Long term deals means you're gonna lose some guys

[moonslav59]

Then the question remains. Do you go $30 mil over on short term deals or do you give out long term deals? Short term deals keep you flexible to re-sign FA's. Long term deals means you're gonna lose some guys

I doubt a short term deal gets us the true clean-up hitter we need.

I really only see two legitimate power hitting clean-up hitters on the FA market, and both have question marks:

Mostakas (Move Devers to 1B and hope HRam can DH like 2016 not 2017.)

JD Martinez (DH and 4th OF'er)

To me, all the 1-2 year options are big gamble or long shots.

Another choice might be to sign Cobb, Duda and Nunez and trade ERod and a couple prospects for Donaldson or Beltre, then move Devers to 1B. A trade for Machado with an extension could be another choice.

[Station 13]

Moons, are those average salaries added up or actual salaries for 2018? I actually remember reading the threshold is around $220M for 2018.

If they offer Mookie $25M now for 3 year, his average salaries will be $8M yearly for the next 3 year. It worth exploring a mega deal for him too.

[moonslav59]

Then the question remains. Do you go $30 mil over on short term deals or do you give out long term deals? Short term deals keep you flexible to re-sign FA's. Long term deals means you're gonna lose some guys

If we went short term, we could build depth to insure against a Pedey, HRam and others, maybe something like...

maybe 3-4 from these guys
Nunez (IF)
Duda (1B-DH)
Avila (C) trade Leon
Werth (4th OF)
D Holland (SP)
A Cashner (SP)

[moonslav59]

Moons, are those average salaries added up or actual salaries for 2018? I actually remember reading the threshold is around $220M for 2018.

If they offer Mookie $25M now for 3 year, his average salaries will be $8M yearly for the next 3 year. It worth exploring a mega deal for him too.

The numbers i listed are the luxury tax budget numbers or the average yearly salary of each player's contracts.

Yes, you are right, The luxury tax limit is $207M not $197M. I will go back and edit.

The second tier 12% tax at $217M

The third tier penalties kick in at $237M.

I can see the Sox going up to $39M over the limit.

[jacksonianmarch]

Machado isn't signing this close to FA. You'll need to give the Jays a lot more than ERod for Donaldson, especially since the Jays say they plan to contend in 2018. Cobb is looking at a Mike Leake type contract, so dealing a controllable starter and then replacing him with an $17 mil per annum starter is questionable. You must remember that your minor league system has been absolutely devastated and did not have a good 2017, hence the cupboard is bare beyond Chavis. Groome and Mata are so far off that they wont be centerpieces of deals.

I have a feeling you're dealing Bradley this year.

[moonslav59]

Machado isn't signing this close to FA. You'll need to give the Jays a lot more than ERod for Donaldson, especially since the Jays say they plan to contend in 2018. Cobb is looking at a Mike Leake type contract, so dealing a controllable starter and then replacing him with an $17 mil per annum starter is questionable. You must remember that your minor league system has been absolutely devastated and did not have a good 2017, hence the cupboard is bare beyond Chavis. Groome and Mata are so far off that they wont be centerpieces of deals.

I have a feeling you're dealing Bradley this year.

We already have no 4th OF'er, so trading JBJ, means we have to spend for 2 OF'ers. I don't see it.

The Cobb signing is probably a pipe dream.

Our farm is not void. I think an ERod, Groome and Chavis offer might entice the Jays.

More likely, we'd trade less for Beltre.

We need to find power somewhere.

I'm not a huge fan of either Moustakas or JD Martinez, and any trade we make will just open another hole that will take major dollars to fill, in kind.

I do not want to trade JBJ or Bogey, but I do think one might be dealt.

ERod and Bogaerts for Donaldson? Then sign a couple mid level SP'ers and some top bench guys?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think Machado is the target and so you resign Moreland to a one year deal. Move Devers to 1b, sign Machado, AFTER the 2018 season. I think they go to war with pretty much the same team in 2018--they don't have enough realistic options to significantly upgrade the offense until Machado hits the market. Benintendi and Devers could make big strides in 2018, which would lead to an improved offense.

Maybe they can do some research and try to figure out why some pitchers excel in the postseason and others are like Chris Sale. They should try to upgrade the rotation, but that will be hard to do. They need to manage Sale differently during the season to keep him strong for the postseason.

They need to get Pedroia's health figured out. They may need to move him to the DH spot, which wouldn't be a bad idea as it would keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting.

[Station 13]

I wouldn't trade for Donaldson. You're subtracting from the team to add him.

Target a bat like JD Martinez, and who cares at this point about the luxury taxes. They have to win with Sale, Betts, Benni, Devers, while they can.

[moonslav59]

I think Machado is the target and so you resign Moreland to a one year deal. Move Devers to 1b, sign Machado, AFTER the 2018 season. I think they go to war with pretty much the same team in 2018--they don't have enough realistic options to significantly upgrade the offense until Machado hits the market. Benintendi and Devers could make big strides in 2018, which would lead to an improved offense.

Maybe they can do some research and try to figure out why some pitchers excel in the postseason and others are like Chris Sale. They should try to upgrade the rotation, but that will be hard to do. They need to manage Sale differently during the season to keep him strong for the postseason.

They need to get Pedroia's health figured out. They may need to move him to the DH spot, which wouldn't be a bad idea as it would keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting.

Sign Moreland to DH?

We add nothing from this year's team. We shrink our 3-4 year window- now 2-3 year window to a 1-2 year window- all to wait for Machado?

If we sign a 1Bman, it means Devers stays at 3B.

[Spudboy]

Machado isn't signing this close to FA. You'll need to give the Jays a lot more than ERod for Donaldson, especially since the Jays say they plan to contend in 2018. Cobb is looking at a Mike Leake type contract, so dealing a controllable starter and then replacing him with an $17 mil per annum starter is questionable. You must remember that your minor league system has been absolutely devastated and did not have a good 2017, hence the cupboard is bare beyond Chavis. Groome and Mata are so far off that they wont be centerpieces of deals.

I have a feeling you're dealing Bradley this year.

I would. Package him with ERod and 2-3 pieces for Stanton.

Of course I don't have a clues so this is just a crazy idea.