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Thread: 2018 Prospect Mega Thread

  1. #1

    2018 Prospect Mega Thread

    Baseball America's prospect rankings are out.

    Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
    1. Jay Groome, LHP
    2. Michael Chavis, 3B
    3. Tanner Houck, RHP
    4. Bryan Mata, RHP
    5. Cole Brannen, OF
    6. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP
    7. Sam Travis, 1B
    8. Mike Shawaryn, RHP
    9. Alex Scherff, RHP
    10. Marco Hernandez, SS/2B
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  2. #2
    Compared with SoxProspects list

    1. Groome (1)
    2. Chavis (2)
    3. Houck (4)
    4. Mata (3)
    5. Brannen (7)
    6. D Hernandez (14)
    7. Travis (5)
    8. Shawaryn (8)
    9. Scherff (9)
    10. M. Hernandez (NR graduated)

    No love for Ockimey or Beeks. They must really like Darwinzon's FB?
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  3. #3
    SYSTEM OVERVIEW
    Strengths: In a system thinned by trades and graduations, the Red Sox still have an interesting mix of pitching prospects, led by No. 1 Jay Groome and 2017 first-rounder Tanner Houck, though most are either far away or could wind up in the bullpen. Corner infield bats such as Michael Chavis, Josh Ockimey, Sam Travis and Danny Diaz provide some power potential.

    Weaknesses: The Red Sox lack for up-the-middle positions players. Boston might not have a future regular at catcher, second base, shortstop or center field in the system. Graduating Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers and trading premium prospects like Manuel Margot, Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza—as well as trades of lesser prospects—has thinned what was one of the deepest system in baseball a few years ago.

    BEST TOOLS
    ��Best Hitter for Average: Sam Travis.
    ��Best Power Hitter: Michael Chavis.
    ��Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Josh Ockimey.
    ��Fastest Baserunner: Cole Brannen.
    ��Best Athlete: Kervin Suarez.
    ��Best Fastball: Darwinzon Hernandez.
    ��Best Curveball: Jay Groome.
    ��Best Slider: Tanner Houck.
    ��Best Changeup: Ty Buttrey.
    ��Best Control: Bryan Mata.
    ��Best Defensive Catcher: Austin Rei.
    ��Best Defensive INF: Antoni Flores.
    ��Best INF Arm: Bobby Dalbec.
    ��Best Defensive OF: Tate Matheny.
    ��Best OF Arm: Yoan Aybar.

    TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE
    (Listed with 2017 organization)

    ��2008: RHP Clay Buchholz (Phillies) | WAR: 15.5
    ��2009: 1B Lars Anderson (Japan) | WAR: N/A
    ��2010: OF Ryan Westmoreland (Did Not Play) | WAR: N/A
    ��2011: SS Jose Iglesias (Tigers) | WAR: 7.0
    ��2012: 3B Will Middlebrooks (Rangers) | WAR: 1.4
    ��2013: SS Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) | WAR: 11.1
    ��2014: SS Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) | WAR: **
    ��2015: C Blake Swihart (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.6
    ��2016: 3B Yoan Moncada (White Sox) | WAR: 1.5
    ��2017: OF Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox) | WAR: 3.1



    TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE
    (Listed with 2017 organization)

    ��2008: RHP Casey Kelly (Giants) | WAR: 1.5
    ��2009: OF Reymond Fuentes (Diamondbacks) | WAR: 0.3
    ��2010: 2B Kolbrin Vitek (Did Not Play) | WAR: N/A

    ��2011: RHP Matt Barnes (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.8
    ��2012: SS Deven Marrero (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.1
    ��2013: LHP Trey Ball (Red Sox) | WAR: N/A
    ��2014: SS Michael Chavis (Red Sox) | Top 10
    ��2015: OF Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox) | WAR: 3.1
    ��2016: LHP Jay Groome (Red Sox) | Top 10
    ��2017: RHP Tanner Houck (Red Sox) | Top 10
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  4. #4
    Speier goes into more detail here:

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/r...v4H/story.html

    Darwinzon:

    WHY HE’S RANKED HERE: Few in the Red Sox system can match the present stuff of Hernandez, who unleashes mid-90s fastballs (topping out at 97) from a low three-quarters arm slot. He’s leaned heavily on a curveball throughout his career, but in his final start of the year for Greenville, he finally committed to a slider that looked like an absolute wipeout offering

    PROJECTION: If everything clicks and he realizes how to employ a full three- to four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup), Hernandez could be a starter in the mold of Francisco Liriano, albeit one who is likely capped as a mid-rotation starter by his limited command. At the least, he has the power stuff and aggressive attack plan – he hunts swings-and-misses with his fastball – to be a formidable back-end reliever.

    QUESTIONS: Will Hernandez continue the sort of control gains he made in 2017, when he dropped his walk rate from 6.7 per nine innings to 4.3 per nine? If not, can he ever assume the innings total necessary to be a starter? Will he make the necessary progress to realize how to sequence his pitches to thrive, or is he more of a let-it-fly guy who is suited for the late innings?
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  5. #5
    Other notes:

    Scouts see Groome as a teenage Jon Lester.

    "Inadequate offseason conditioning" was an issue with Groome's injury riddled year.

    Chavis is undersized at 1b, but looked good in AFL.

    Comparables to Chavis are Moustakas and Ron Cey.

    Houck has a floor of Joe Smith or Carson Smith, but is still intriguing as a starter if he can develop a third pitch.

    Mata is a young three pitch pitcher, but where does he project physically? Great command though.

    Brannen has a Brett Gardner starter kit of tools, but maybe too passive at the plate.

    Travis couldn't get on an offensive roll in 2017 due to rehab from injuries and being on the PAW/BOS shuttle. When will the power show?

    If Shawaryn develops a changeup, he could become a 4th starter.

    Scherff is just risky due to age, but has a high ceiling and has advanced FB command for his age. No professional pitches thrown yet.

    Marco is at worst a bench player, but could be an everyday 2b depending on how he bounces back from injury.


    Not much new there, but it's a good jumping off point for anyone who hasn't been paying much attention after the team gutted the system.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  6. #6
    https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/...seball-america

    The five-six pairing was the most surprising of the entire list to me as both are higher than I was expecting to see. Brannen rounds out the top five despite just being selected in the second round this past summer and putting up fine but unspectacular numbers in his first professional season. That being said, the tools are there and as BA points out he is the best chance the Red Sox have at having a top prospect at an up-the-middle position. Hernandez, meanwhile, was quietly very strong in his first full season in the minors. It’s all about the fastball for the southpaw, and BA points out that the dominance of that pitch may have hindered the development of his secondaries. There’s a chance he’s a long-term reliever, but BA at least is a believer in the potential for a mid-rotation arm.

    Finally, there is an interesting mix in the last four spots on this list. I’d expect to see Travis a couple spots higher on most lists this winter, though on my own personal list I probably wouldn’t even have him in the top ten. BA still believes there is some power to be tapped into, but acknowledges he is running out of time to show it. Shawaryn, meanwhile, is not someone they seem overly excited about though they do see some potential for an innings-eating number four starter. While not thrilling, that’s a valuable piece. Scherff, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched at all as a pro but has big-time potential and could be one of the biggest risers in the system. Finally, there is Hernandez, who I forgot was even still prospect-eligible. I’m a bigger Hernandez fan than most, though I agree with BA’s assessment that he’s either a second-division second baseman or a good utility man.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  7. #7
    I just find it very encouraging that 6 of our top ten prospects are pitchers. Either our prospects just aren't very good or someone has seen the importance of developing our own pitchers these days.

  8. #8
    I wouldn't use the term not very good. I would use the term very green. Your closest pitcher on that list is Shawaryn and he just had half a season at A+ which wasn't entirely dominant. The rest are low A or lower.
    The rebuild is complete.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    I wouldn't use the term not very good. I would use the term very green. Your closest pitcher on that list is Shawaryn and he just had half a season at A+ which wasn't entirely dominant. The rest are low A or lower.
    Yup. The biggest take away is that there aren't any top prospects close enough to help the major league team for the next few years. That's the sacrifice you make to bring in Pomeranz, Sale and Kimbrel tho.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Yup. The biggest take away is that there aren't any top prospects close enough to help the major league team for the next few years. That's the sacrifice you make to bring in Pomeranz, Sale and Kimbrel tho.
    I am biting my tongue.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I am biting my tongue.
    They'll be ready when we need them to be ready. I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz than what we gave up.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    I just find it very encouraging that 6 of our top ten prospects are pitchers. Either our prospects just aren't very good or someone has seen the importance of developing our own pitchers these days.
    I don't think it is because we are suddenly developing great pitching nearly as much as those are the players who are defaulting into the top 10. If the Sox are lucky, maybe 2 of them will actually have a career longer than one month of service time....

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I am biting my tongue.
    Chew on a Cliff bar instead

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    They'll be ready when we need them to be ready. I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz than what we gave up.
    We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing.

    Who might be ready for 2019?

    Shawaryn or Beeks?

    Johnson, Thompson or Lakins?

    Hmmm....

    Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I don't think it is because we are suddenly developing great pitching nearly as much as those are the players who are defaulting into the top 10. If the Sox are lucky, maybe 2 of them will actually have a career longer than one month of service time....
    With our track record on pitching prospects, I'd probably feel better if our top 10 had no pitchers. That way, we could trade our positional prospects for the next Chris Sale.

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