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Thread: 2018 Prospect Mega Thread

  1. #16
    BTW, great work MVP. Thanks for all the info.

  2. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Chew on a Cliff bar instead
    Good one!

  3. #18
    Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10:

    1. Groome

    2. Chavis

    3. Mata

    4. Houck

    5. Ockimey

    6. Shawaryn

    7. Brannen

    8. Scherff

    9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com)

    10. Travis


  4. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Chew on a Cliff bar instead
    Ha ha. Nice!

  5. #20
    I think the appearance of D Hernandez and L Cedrola in the top 10 shows how close to each other non top prospects can be. They are very hit-or-miss.

    Groome, Chavis, Houck and Mata seem to be the consensus top 4 that are separated by a wide gap between them and the others.

  6. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing.

    Who might be ready for 2019?

    Shawaryn or Beeks?

    Johnson, Thompson or Lakins?

    Hmmm....

    Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.
    If Pom bolts, the rotation will be Sale/Price/Porcello/ERod/Wright. I think Beeks deserves some spot starts this year at least.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  7. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10:

    1. Groome

    2. Chavis

    3. Mata

    4. Houck

    5. Ockimey

    6. Shawaryn

    7. Brannen

    8. Scherff

    9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com)

    10. Travis

    Ockimey is probably a little high there. If he's going to be an impact bat, he needs to take a big jump this year.

    Cedrola? That's a weird one.

    I do like looking at how all the rankings match up. Looks like we'll have to keep a closer eye on Brannen this year!
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  8. #23
    Ockimey is probably a little high there. If he's going to be an impact bat, he needs to take a big jump this year.

    He did have an .820 OPS between A+ and AA ball last year at age 21. His power numbers were low (14 HRs & 43 EBH in 452 ABs), but I don't think he needs to make a big jump this year. He's got 2-3 years to get ML ready. He still is a bit "raw", but to me that can mean his ceiling is high, if he can ever refine himself.
    His K rate is way too high, but with a .385 OBP, ipt may not be that big of an issue.

  9. #24
    With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players.

    I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed)

    The Power Guys:
    #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%.

    The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%.

    The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%.

    The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er.

    The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er.

    The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go.

    The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise.

    Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely.

    The 2020 40 man roster:

    SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez
    Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?)
    RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd
    C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart
    1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey
    2B: Pedey, Hernandez
    3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec
    SS: ______, Lin or Chatham
    LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez
    CF: JBJ
    RF: Betts
    DH: (JDMartinez?)

  10. #25
    18 Hrs in A ball for Ockimey is "limited power"?
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  11. #26
    Dalbec also showed a bit of power in his first short stint in Lowell in 2016. He played fairly well last year considering he was out for almost two months.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  12. #27
    https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/...-groome-chavis

    Baseball America top 100:

    Groome - 83
    Chavis - 85
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  13. #28
    The only former Sox player ranked is Kopech at 11.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  14. #29
    @SPChrisHatfield

    Jay Groome coming in at number 83 on the @BaseballAmerica Top 100 is the lowest the club's top prospect has ever ranked in that publication's ranking, dating back to 1990.
    "Let's go!" - Joseph Kelly Jr

  15. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    18 Hrs in A ball for Ockimey is "limited power"?
    My bad.

    14 HRs and 29 (2B+3B) in 452 ABs last season is not bad.


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