The hot stove is still rolling, but the Yankees are said to have exited the Cole negotiations as they wouldn't accept anything without Gleyber and there wasn't really any fire to the smoke of the Machado rumors. Unless something falls into their laps, the Yankees are okay with rolling the way they are. There is clearly a shot at signing Frazier or Moustakas if their price tags drop considerably, but considering that we might be done, here are some numbers on the guys currently in the lineup.
1. Brett Gardner. Gardner can expect to spend some time in LF, CF and some at DH to rest his legs. His days of a 40 SB speedster are over, but as Johnny Damon did, he has swapped out the speed for power. He still swiped 23 bases last year and he hit a career high 21HR. He's reached 16HR 3 of the last 4 seasons as well. Gardy will be 34 when the season starts and turns 35 in August, so he is no spring chicken. His line from 2017 was very good for him at .264/.350/.428 and he put up 4.9WAR (ESPN) based on resurgent defensive marks in LF. It is clearly possible that Gardner regresses as he is beyond his prime, although his late career power has added to his OPS capabilities. I still think his speed should allow him to steal 20-25 bases as he has in all but 1 full season in his career. I also think the power will probably continue in the 15-20HR range as he has added pop as he aged. He's been a .264 career hitter and has hit within 10 points of that the last 8 seasons (excluding his missed season of 2012). His fangraphs projection is .252/.341/.425 with 15HRs. That's pretty reasonable, although maybe slightly pessimistic on the HR front. Either way, I'd take it. My prediction .255/.345/.425 with 18HR, 20SBs
2. Aaron Judge. Judge is probably going to play a mishmash of LF, RF and DH. Boone has even said he could play CF, although I'd expect that in less than 10 games. Judge is a colossal power hitter. His season from last year was .284/.422/.627 with 52HR and 9 steals. He is surprisingly athletic as evidenced by his +7UZR/150 and 9 steals on the year. Fangraphs has a confusing projection of .254/.369/.518 with 37HR and 7 steals. If Judge hits .254, he will hit 40+HR's and if he hits .254, I'd expect his walk totals to be obscene, likely pushing his OBP closer to .400. Judge proved last year that his power is special and aside from maybe Stanton, is the best in the game. Also, in the playoffs, the umpires were effectively convinced to call the real strike zone starting in the ALCS. Now that Judge is no longer a rookie and has entrenched himself as the face of the MLB, I assume he will get some better treatment in the strike zone. That being said, a .370BABIP likely isn't going to continue, but his barrel rate (best in baseball) should at least keep it over .300. I do think the K% drops down a few percentage points (he was around 25% in the minors) but he'll never be a big contact guy. I highly doubt he adds to his rookie year, but I don't think he drops down too far. My prediction .265/.400/.580 45HR 10SB
3. Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is probably going to play LF, RF and DH in NYY. Stanton has been the pre-eminent power hitter in baseball and now he moves to a park where HR's are easier to hit in half his games (not to mention playing in BOS, BAL, and TOR 27 total times rather than NYM, ATL, and WAS). He is also being added to a prolific lineup that is better than the one he left. Stanton will have guys on base and will have protection behind him. His 2017 line was insane at .281/.376/.631 with 59HR and 2SBs. His fangraphs projection is nearly the same at .283/.376/.640 with 55HR and 3SB. One must also process that going from obscurity to NY isn't easy. I don't think 2018 is the year Stanton cracks 60+HR (that'll be 2019), but I do expect him to be a fearsome hitter. My prediction .265/.360/.600 48HR
4. Gary Sanchez. Sanchez will be catching likely 110 games or so and DH'ing a fair amount after that. After a blistering 2 months in 2016 that nearly nabbed him a ROY, Sanchez didn't disappoint offensively smacking 33HR. The thing that most people don't realize is that Sanchez only played 122 games as he missed a month with a bicep strain. He just turned 25, so he is just entering his prime age as well. If he didn't miss that time, he'd have slugged 40HRs. His 2017 line was .278/.345/.531 with 33HR and 2SB. His fangraphs projection is a bit puzzling. They have him at .269/.334/.515 with 30HR. I am wondering why they think he will decline entering his age 25 season and I am wondering why they don't think a healthy Sanchez could surpass his 2017 total? Sanchez was more of a contact hitter in the minors than he was last season and I anticipate that he makes a bit more contact as he matures, hence I think his BA can rise. His BA wasn't incredibly lucky in 2017 (.307BABIP) so a big drop would be better on his luck turning rather than anything else. I think he will hit more balls out of the park and put more balls in play, hence I think his BA can rise modestly. Either way, I think Sanchez builds off 2017 and improves. My prediction .285/.360/.550 with 38HR
5. Greg Bird. Bird will be our every day 1b. Bird is finally healthy and he proved in September and October that he isn't to be forgotten in this lineup. His 2017 line was entirely terrible (.190/.288/.422) but his track record and finish to 2017 points to something much more. Fangraphs has him at .255/.345/.496 with 30HR. I would take that any day of the week. Although I feel a healthy Bird in this lineup playing half his games in Yankee Stadium might see some more helium in the HR totals. Also, the fangraphs numbers point away from one thing Bird showed in his minor league time, and that is a knack for ridiculously high OBP's. In this lineup, Bird will see balls to deposit, but he will also walk a ton. I am bullish on Bird here, assuming he can be healthy. My prediction .260/.380/.500 with 35HR
6. Didi Gregorius. Didi will be our SS for 2017. Most people don't remember that Didi missed 5 weeks of the season and still set the single season HR record for the Yankee franchise. His 2017 line was really good at .287/.318/.478. His left handed swing is perfect for NY stadium as he has a knack for pulling fly balls into the seats. Fangraphs has him at .270/.315/.436 with 21HR. I think the power might be a bit light as he hit 25HR in 136 games last year, but not by much. My prediction .275/.315/.470 with 27HR
7. Aaron Hicks. Hicks will be in the lineup as a CFer exclusively when he plays. Hicks missed time with an oblique twice and was limited to 88 games, but what an 88 games it was. He put up a .266/.372/.475 line with 15HR and 10SB. Hicks fangraphs predicts .253/.341/.425 with 19HR and 12SB. I'd absolutely take that, although his 2017 performance points to a more upper 20s HR total, who knows if he can stay healthy enough to see the field enough to hit those out. Hicks devours lefties (.900+ OPS) but for once in his career, he actually hit well vs righties (.800ish OPS). I honestly have no idea which Hicks will show. Will it be the guy who was on pace for a 6WAR season if he didn't miss time, or is it the underachieving former top prospect he was before he blossomed last season. I think it is going to be a blend. While I don't think he is an .850OPS player, I do think a near .800OPS is safer here. My prediction .250/.350/.450 with 22HR and 18SB
That's a prediction on my end of 233HR for the top 7 in the lineup. As for the final two spots...