Steamer has him with a .886 OPS. ZiPS has a .916.Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch
Steamer has him with a .886 OPS. ZiPS has a .916.
Going to the pitchers...
1. Sale vs Severino. Sale has the track record and by all accounts had a career season last yr. Severino burst on the scene in 2015, but struggled in 16 before becoming an ace in 2017. Sale and Sevy finished 2 and 3 in the Cy Young. Sale had the better year, but ZIPS projects them both to be around the 5.5-5.7WAR mark for 2018. I think the likelihood is Sale outperforms Sevy with the potential that they are a wash.
2. Tanaka vs Price. The tale of the dominant veteran arms who were neither dominant or dependable last season. Price was coming off a durable, albeit career worst 2016 to develop a "tear in his elbow" and finish the year unable to start. Price had an alarming velocity dip in 2016, but rebounded to his prior levels in an injury filled year. If Price can sustain that velocity and stay healthy, then he could be 1A to Chris Sale's 1. There's also a strong likelihood that the elbow goes altogether and he needs it fixed. Heading to Tanaka, he hit 30 starts for the second year in a row, yet didn't reach 6IP per start for the first time in his career. This was due to a disastrous May where he pitched to a ridiculous 8.42ERA with 11HR in 31IP. After May, Tanaka dropped the percentage of his FB/sinker and increased the slider/splitter and returned to prior dominance with a 3.54ERA and a 1.05WHIP in the last 101.2IP. Tanaka set a career high in K/9IP last yr, up to 9.8K/9, yet the HR rate was insane at 1.77/9IP. After the adjustment, his HR rate dropped down to 1.24/9IP, which is around his career norm. Outside of an odd month, Tanaka has been remarkably consistent from 2016-2017. Durable, strong K rates, low walk rates, high HR rates, solid ERA's and WHIP's. My anticipation is that we will see a 30 start mid 3's ERA, 1.00-1.10WHIP with a high K rate again. Price has the upside to be better than that, but a bit more injury risk as his elbow issues aren't as remote as Tanaka's are. Also, Tanaka finished 2017 on fire and lit things up in the playoffs. I'd go Yankees here with upside to the sox. If Price is healthy and rediscovers his velo for good, he will outperform Tanaka. I think the likelihood is Tanaka outperforms Price but the potential is there for Price to be better should he regain his heat and his health
3. Pomeranz vs Gray. Pomeranz is your prototypical high performing short outing performer. Dominant numbers wrapped in a 5.4IP per start package. He displayed 30+ starts for 2 straight years as well leading to durability without length. Gray had been an ace with a lights out playoff history. Then 2016 hit and he was injured. He didn't fully recover until May of 2017. He returned as a better K pitcher than he displayed previously with his prototypical good but not great command. He posted a mid 3's ERA while reaching 6IP per start almost on the nose. At his peak, Gray was a 200+IP performer who could hold an ERA near 3 for a whole season. If Gray returns to that, he will be far better than Pomeranz, even if Pom is blowing people away in limited outings. The current Sonny Gray, though, is an interesting comp to Pomeranz. I think the likelihood is a wash as Sonny is moving to NYY and his HR rate already doubled after the deal. The potential is there for Gray to regain his Oakland form and really take off in this rotation as the #3.
4. Porcello vs Sabathia. This is another battle of durability vs effectiveness, although the roles were reversed. CC came up huge in the playoffs for NYY and had a resurgent season, which earned him another payday. CC seemed to wrestle one more year out of father time and even saw a resurgent fastball in 2017. Knee issues and a lights out pen caused CC to miss time and be pulled early in games by trigger happy Joe Girardi. They'll still have to handle him with kid gloves and don't discount the strong chance he ends up on the DL at some point in 2018, either due to a need for maintenance or a real issue. Porcello followed up a Cy Young season with a clunker. Yes, he reached 200IP, but his 4.65ERA was validated by the advanced metrics as not being a fluke. As bad as CC's HR rate was, Porcello had his beat by nearly 33%. Who knows who the real Porcello is. Is he the Cy Young contender who turned in an absolutely dominant 2016? Is he the guy who posted 2 seasons out of the last 3 with ERA's over 4.50? Looking at his history, Rick has posted ERA's over 4 in 6 out of his 9 seasons with one of the sub 4 seasons being 3.96 in 2009. One cannot discount the possibility that Rick is more an innings eater than a real effective starter. I think this one is an interesting wash and probably mostly dependent on CC. I think Rick posts a 4-4.5 ERA but stays healthy. CC could post another sub 4ERA, but he might miss half the season with knee issues.
5. Montgomery vs E-Rod. Right now, it is advantage Yankees since ERod is looking to miss a month, but the timeline might be moving up. Even when healthy, J-Mont posted a WAR in his rookie year that E-Rod never reached (2.7). E-Rod is more powerful, yet J-Mont has more command and a deeper arsenal. Both are left handed. I think ERod has the type of arsenal that could become ace-like, but his injury history and maddening inconsistency stand in the way of reaching that. Montgomery doesn't have that kind of ace like potential, but he projects as the safer and more reliable middle of the rotation pitcher that he already showed he could be. I think likelihood goes to NYY but upside is clearly in Boston's favor
So, of the 5, I have likelihoods going to Sale, Tanaka, and Montgomery with washes being Porcello-Sabathia and Pomeranz-Gray. The upsides, I have a wash with Sale-Severino, then decidedly going to Price, Gray, Porcello and ERod.
Last edited by jacksonianmarch; 02-28-2018 at 10:11 PM.
Hal sucks
I don't need nearly that many words or numbers to say "Yankees Suck". Brevity is the soul of wit.
- From the 2004 ALCS Game 4 Gamethread. A reminder that no game is over until the final out is recorded, and things will always get better. Misspellings unchanged as a reminder that Yankees fans are just terrible.
fangraphs has....
5.4 Sale
4.9 Severino
3.6 Price
3.6 Tanaka
3.3 S Gray
2.5 Pomernaz
2.5 Porcello
2.1 Montgomery
0.9 ERod/0.7 Wright
1.6 CC Sabathia
Pen
NYY
2.2 Chapman
1.6 Robertson
1.2 Betances
1.1 Kahnle
0.9 C Green
0.2 Warren
0.1 Shreve & Gallegos
BOS
2.3 Kimbrel
0.8 Smith
0.7 Kelly
0.2 Barnes
0.1 Thornburg & Workman
C
3.4 Sanchez, 0.2 Romine, 0.1 Higashioka
1.4 Vazques & 0.6 Leon
1B
1.9 Byrd & 0.1 Austin
0.7 Moreland & 0.6 HRam
DH
2.8 JD Martinez & 0.1 HRam
1.5 Stanton, 0.6 Judge, 0.3 Gardner & 0.1 Sanchez
2B
2.3 Pedroia & 0.6 Nunez
0.5 Torres, 0.3 Wade, 0.1 Torreyes & Drury
3B
2.6 Devers, 0.3 Nunez
0.8 Drury, 0.6 Andujar
SS
3.4 Bogey & 0.2 Nunez
2.6 Gregorius, 0.1 Torreyes & Wade
LF
3.4 Stanton & 1.3 Gardner
2.5 Beni, 0.6 JDM, 0.2 Nunez
CF
3.2 JBJ & 0.4 Beni
2.4 Hicks, 0.3 Ellsbury
RF
5.6 Betts & 0.1 Nunez
3.8 Judge, 1.5 Stanton, 0.1 Frazier
Totals
6.4 Stanton
5.6 Betts
4.4 Judge
3.5 Sanchez
3.4 JDM
3.4 Bogey
3.2 JBJ
2.9 Beni
2.6 Devers
2.6 Didi
2.4 Hicks
2.3 Pedey
1.9 Bird
1.7 Gardner
1.4 Vaz
1.3 Nunez
1.0 Drury
0.7 Moreland
0.7 HRam
0.6 Leon
0.6 Andujar
0.5 Torres & Wade
0.4 Ellsbury
0.2 Torreyes & Romine
0.1 Frazier & Austin
I still hold out faith for Bogaerts to return to the player he can be. Maybe this is the fire he needs to ignite him. He’s a talented player when he’s hot and has mad skills. But I swear the guy dies drugs or something with his inconsistent play. Regardless I still think he’s an excellent player.
You can do all the head-to-head comparisons you want, but it's the X factors that will probably decide it.
Red Sox X factors:
How big of a boost will we see from the following factors?
-JDM
-More aggressive approach
-Return to form from Betts and Bogaerts
How healthy will David Price be?
How well will our 'bridge to Kimbrel' hold up with Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Workman, Thornburg (?) et al?
Red Sox vs Yankees
C - Vaz v Sanchez - Sanchez is better
1b - Mitch v Bird - Not even close, Bird can't play a full season
2b - Pedroia v Torres - Pedey even with his shitty baserunning
SS - Xander v Gregorius - Xander is going to mash this year
3b - Devers v Whoever - Devers all day
RF - Betts v Judge - sophmore slump for Judge
CF - JBJ v Hicks - I like Hicks, but JBJ is better right now
LF - Beni v Gardner - Gardner kinda sucks
DH - JD v Mike Stanton - JD will have the better year this time, Stanton will miss half the year due to injury
Red Sox 99-63
Yankees 87-75
Isn’t that special
Oh shit, you just hit me with a 30 year old SNL reference. I'm dead.
Yankees are still a 2nd place team. For them, that's still pretty special since the Sox have been the better franchise for the past 15+ years.
He had an offseason to heal. That will help a lot.
Yankees X Factors:
Stay healthy and hit a shit ton of HRs. They realistically could have 8 guys hit 20+ HRs (4 of those 8 could hit 30+, and 2 of those 4 could hit 50+).
Sox players that can hit 20 HRs:
Mitch
Xander
Devers
Betts
JBJ
Beni
JD
Hanley (could hit 20 off the bench)
X-factor with the Yanks is their Bullpen. Especially if Betances gets his crap together.
At this point, the Yanks are really no different than the Rays or Orioles to me. There is only one X factor in this "rivalry".
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...61&position=SS
Not one Catcher in the AL East that has the Power of Sanchez. And he missed a Month last year. Lot of difference, just there.
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