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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

  1. #4876
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillyWilliams View Post
    Even with price pitching better as of late, I still doubt very much that he opts out.

    Obviously if jd continues to put up monster numbers, there is a chance he could opt out, but I would think it might depend on what the market for bats is that offseason.
    I agree. I'd put Price's chances of opting out at less than 1%.

    I'm not sure about JD. He'll be 2 years older and looking more and more like a DH/4th OF'er type.

    I also think we can probably afford to give JD a bump is salary to keep him here, if we choose to do so.


  2. #4877
    All-Star Carpin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Future contract notes:

    Sale's 2019 option is $15M not $13.5 due to finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young in the past.

    Nunez saw his 2019 option go up from $4M to $5M by reaching 400 PAs this year.

    Moreland probably won't make the $25K he gets for reaching 500 PAs. He has 435 now.

    Price may opt out after this year.

    JD may opt out after next year with $2.5M buyout. or after 2020 (no buyout).
    Price is not opting out unless he has a huge postseason, no way he gets a contract similar to the one he has in the open market

  3. #4878
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    Price is not opting out unless he has a huge postseason, no way he gets a contract similar to the one he has in the open market
    He could go 5-0 0.00 and he ain't opting out.

  4. #4879
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He could go 5-0 0.00 and he ain't opting out.
    The only way he opts out is if he really wants to leave. But even then, his agent (whom he did hire for career advice) would strongly recommend against it....

  5. #4880
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The only way he opts out is if he really wants to leave. But even then, his agent (whom he did hire for career advice) would strongly recommend against it....
    He won't need his agent to know to stay.

  6. #4881
    #SurvivingFarrell Station 13's Avatar
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    Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?

  7. #4882
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Station 13 View Post
    Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?
    Yes, he did. He said he came to Boston to be on a winning team, so he will not be going to another team with less of a chance of winning.

    Edit: The hope of him opting out was ridiculously illogical. If he was playing well enough for him to opt out, it meant that he was playing for us at or below market value.
    Last edited by a700hitter; 09-20-2018 at 06:23 PM.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  8. #4883
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Station 13 View Post
    Didn't Price recently said he won't be opting out?
    Yes, but it's what GMs want to hear. It could be posturing, but I think he was sincere.

    It rings of truth.

  9. #4884
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Here's a look at the AL Playoff SP'ers (fWAR used):
    (Ranked among only 5 playoff team pitchers. In theory, 5 teams x 5 SP'er makes the sample size 25 pitchers)
    BOS
    1. Sale 6.2
    12. Price 2.9
    15. Porcello 2.6
    17. ERod 2.2
    22. Eovaldi 1.6
    HOU
    2. Verlander 6.0
    4. G Cole 5.7
    9. Keuchel 3.5
    11. Morton 2.9
    16.. McCullers 2.3 (to the pen)
    CLE
    3. Bauer 6.0 (Injured)
    6. Kluber 4.9
    7. Carrasco 4.9
    8. Clevinger 4.3
    14. Bieber 2.6
    NYY
    5. Severino 5.5
    10. Happ 3.0
    13. Tanaka 2.7
    18. Lynn 2.5
    19. Sabathia 2.1
    23. Gray 1.6
    OAK
    20. Cahil 1.9
    21. Manaea 1.8(injured)
    24. Anderson 1.0
    25. Montas 0.9
    26. Jackson 0.8



  10. #4885
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's a look at the AL Playoff SP'ers (fWAR used):
    (Ranked among only 5 playoff team pitchers. In theory, 5 teams x 5 SP'er makes the sample size 25 pitchers)
    BOS
    1. Sale 6.2
    12. Price 2.9
    15. Porcello 2.6
    17. ERod 2.2
    22. Eovaldi 1.6
    HOU
    2. Verlander 6.0
    4. G Cole 5.7
    9. Keuchel 3.5
    11. Morton 2.9
    16.. McCullers 2.3 (to the pen)
    CLE
    3. Bauer 6.0 (Injured)
    6. Kluber 4.9
    7. Carrasco 4.9
    8. Clevinger 4.3
    14. Bieber 2.6
    NYY
    5. Severino 5.5
    10. Happ 3.0
    13. Tanaka 2.7
    18. Lynn 2.5
    19. Sabathia 2.1
    23. Gray 1.6
    OAK
    20. Cahil 1.9
    21. Manaea 1.8(injured)
    24. Anderson 1.0
    25. Montas 0.9
    26. Jackson 0.8


    I see and appreciate what you're doing there but it raises a point. Those WARs are against a cross-section of hitters, essentially an average of all teams and hitters. It may not be realistic to think that, for example, Justin Verlander will perform as well against Mookie, JDM, & Co. as they do against the average teams.

    I like our offense better than anyone else's (except maybe the Y's in YS) so I'm optimistic.

    Another reason I'm optimistic is because of all the late inning scoring the Sox have done. It just may be that the Sox (like everyone else) will have trouble with other team's top pitchers but they can clean up against their bullpens. IMO it will be incumbent on our starters not to be shutdown guys but rather to keep the team in the game. The offense will take care of the rest later in the game. But shutdown is good too.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  11. #4886
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    Houston really hits Lefties good, something to think about going forward.

  12. #4887
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    Price still has 4 years on an insane contract of over $30M year. In the first three years (almost) of his contract, he has been worth about 1/2 of that $30M+/year.

    So how did the subject of his opting out even come up?

    To me that would be like Pablo and HanRam wiring DD and asking him to please discontinue those monthly salary checks because they feel they haven't earned them.

  13. #4888
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    I see and appreciate what you're doing there but it raises a point. Those WARs are against a cross-section of hitters, essentially an average of all teams and hitters. It may not be realistic to think that, for example, Justin Verlander will perform as well against Mookie, JDM, & Co. as they do against the average teams.

    I like our offense better than anyone else's (except maybe the Y's in YS) so I'm optimistic.

    Another reason I'm optimistic is because of all the late inning scoring the Sox have done. It just may be that the Sox (like everyone else) will have trouble with other team's top pitchers but they can clean up against their bullpens. IMO it will be incumbent on our starters not to be shutdown guys but rather to keep the team in the game. The offense will take care of the rest later in the game. But shutdown is good too.
    Well, our pitchers never had to face our hitters, so maybe their WAR would be worse, if they did.

    I like our top 3-4 starters as much as anyone else's.

    I like our line-up more than anyone else's.

    I like our defense more than any other AL playoff team's.

    We are second in SBs.

    I like our chances more than anyone else's to win it all, but those chances are still well below 50%.

  14. #4889
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    Right - I love this team. But it's baseball - and no baseball team is a good bet vs the field.

  15. #4890
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    Right - I love this team. But it's baseball - and no baseball team is a good bet vs the field.
    Ever.

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