A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

It looks like the 2018 25 man roster is pretty much set. It's time for Part II.

Link to Part I:

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...at-2018-Part-I

Here's a look at what I see might happen...

My 2018 Projections (assuming no new injuries, which, admittedly, is not very realistic)

Hitting
PAs Player BA HR RBI (OBP/OPS/OPS)

720 Betts .300 30 110 (.375/.500/.875)
680 Beni .280 25 100 (.355/.445/.800)
650 Bogey .290 15 90 (.355/.415/.780)
600 JMart .290 45 135 (.380/.570/.950)
600 Devers .290 25 100 (.335/.465/.800)
600 JB Jr, .275 20 75 (.330/.420/.750)
500 Nunez .275 15 65 (.340/.430/.770)
450 HRam .270 15 70 (.335/.415/.750)
450 Vazq .260 8 50 (.320/.380/.700
400 Pedey .280 5 45 (.360/.390/.750)
400 Mi Mo .240 15 50 (.320/.400/.720)
350 Swi .265 10 35 (.330/.390/.720)
100 Leon .220 3 10 (.280/.360/..640)
100 Holt .270 2 10 (.320/.360/.680)

Starting Pitchers
GS/IP Pitcher W-L in starts ERA

33/210 Sale 24-9 3.00
32/200 Price 20-12 3.30
32/200 Porc 18-14 4.00
26/180 Pom 16-10 3.60
26/150 ERod 16-10 3.60
10/90 Wright 6-4 4.20 (some in relief)
3 by Johnson/Velazquez (1-2 5.00)

Team: 101-61 (assuming no new injuries)

Defense Ranking (out of 30):

6-9 Catcher: Assuming Swihart does not catch too often.
16-19 1B: Assuming HRam plays more than MiMo
14-17 2B: Assuming Nunez plays 2B 25-35%
23-26 SS: Assuming Bogey plays 155+ games here
26-29 3B: Assuming Devers plays 155+ games here
11-14 LF: Beni with JMart getting some time here
4-7 CF: JBJ
1-4 RF: Betts

Your thoughts and ideas are welcome.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

[Bellhorn04]

Inquiring minds want to know:

Why did you say you didn't like the 96-101 bracket in the How Many Wins thread and went with 92-95 instead?

[moonslav59]

Inquiring minds want to know:

Why did you say you didn't like the 96-101 bracket in the How Many Wins thread and went with 92-95 instead?

My number was 96, but I did not choose the 96-101 bracket, because I think there's less chance we win that amount of games than the 92-95 bracket. Here's a rough estimate of how I see our chances of winning x amount of games
90- 8% (rash of injuries)
91 7%
92 8%
93 11%
94 13%
95 15%
96 16%
97 13%
98 9%
99 4%
100 2%
101 1%
102+ 1%

92-95 wins is 47%
96-101 is 46%

[moonslav59]

Here's how I see our roster and depth chart:

C: Vaz will probably start 4 out of 5 starts with Leon being Sale's personal caddie. It remains to be seen if Swihart can muscle his way into more catching time beyond late inning PH'er-type role. Butler provides pretty good ML ready depth in AAA.

1B: Although this could be one of this season's weakest comparative position by WAR or OPS, we have decent depth. HRam will likely start vs all LH'd SP'ers as MiMo hits lefties very poorly. HRam and MiMo might split time vs RH'd starters. Swihart may muscle his way to some playing time here. HRam's vesting option at 497 PAs will likely be hotly debated all season long. Sam Travis has had a very nice Spring and now looks to be a more-than-capable back-up stashed in AAA, With 4 1Bmen to choose from, maybe we'll get a surprise from one or two of them.

2B: Pedey is the man, but Nunez will start the season at 2nd and might see significant time there, even after Pedey returns. Marco Hernandez (DL), Holt, Lin and Quiroz offer decent depth.

3B: Devers looks like he will get over 600 PAs this year. Nunez might play some, perhaps while Devers "rests" as our DH. Holt, Lin and maybe even Swihart could fill in, if we need them here.

SS: Bogaerts should play every game, except when resting. My guess is, we'll use the poor-fielding SS, Nunez, as our first choice at SS, but Holt and Lin can fill in pretty well.

LF: Beni should get all of the starts, except when JD plays LF in Fenway. Beni may play RF or CF, when other OF'ers are rested or given the day off. Nunez, Holt, Swihart and even Moreland can play LF, when needed.

CF: JBJ should play FT CF, except when JD plays the OF. Beni or Betts are the depth here.

RF: Betts should get over 700 PAs, especially if he hits 1st or 2nd everyday. JD may play some RF at NL parks and maybe a few AL parks as well, butBetts will move to CF at JBJ's expense.

DH: JD Martinez should play here as much as possible, so we can maximize his PAs and minimize a chance for injury. HRam, Nunez/Pedey, Swihart/Travis or Devers could see time at DH this year.

SP1: Sale
SP2: Price
SP3: Pomeranz (DL)
SP4: ERod (when off the DL)
SP5: Porcello
SP6: Wright (suspended)
SP7: Johnson
SP8: Velazquez
SP9: Elias/Beeks/Haley

Closer: Kimbrel (back-up: Smith/Thornburg)
RP2: Smith
RP3: Thornburg (DL)
RP4: Kelly
RP5: Barnes
RP6: Hembree (no options)
RP7: Workman
RP8: Poyner
RP9: Maddox
RP10: Scott
RP11: Wright/Johnson/Elias/Velazquez/Buttrey/Martin/Layne/Jerez...

All-in-all, I like our depth just about everywhere.

[cp176]

Here's how I see our roster and depth chart:

C: Vaz will probably start 4 out of 5 starts with Leon being Sale's personal caddie. It remains to be seen if Swihart can muscle his way into more catching time beyond late inning PH'er-type role. Butler provides pretty good ML ready depth in AAA.

1B: Although this could be one of this season's weakest comparative position by WAR or OPS, we have decent depth. HRam will likely start vs all LH'd SP'ers as MiMo hits lefties very poorly. HRam and MiMo might split time vs RH'd starters. Swihart may muscle his way to some playing time here. HRam's vesting option at 497 PAs will likely be hotly debated all season long. Sam Travis has had a very nice Spring and now looks to be a more-than-capable back-up stashed in AAA, With 4 1Bmen to choose from, maybe we'll get a surprise from one or two of them.

2B: Pedey is the man, but Nunez will start the season at 2nd and might see significant time there, even after Pedey returns. Marco Hernandez (DL), Holt, Lin and Quiroz offer decent depth.

3B: Devers looks like he will get over 600 PAs this year. Nunez might play some, perhaps while Devers "rests" as our DH. Holt, Lin and maybe even Swihart could fill in, if we need them here.

SS: Bogaerts should play every game, except when resting. My guess is, we'll use the poor-fielding SS, Nunez, as our first choice at SS, but Holt and Lin can fill in pretty well.

LF: Beni should get all of the starts, except when JD plays LF in Fenway. Beni may play RF or CF, when other OF'ers are rested or given the day off. Nunez, Holt, Swihart and even Moreland can play LF, when needed.

CF: JBJ should play FT CF, except when JD plays the OF. Beni or Betts are the depth here.

RF: Betts should get over 700 PAs, especially if he hits 1st or 2nd everyday. JD may play some RF at NL parks and maybe a few AL parks as well, butBetts will move to CF at JBJ's expense.

DH: JD Martinez should play here as much as possible, so we can maximize his PAs and minimize a chance for injury. HRam, Nunez/Pedey, Swihart/Travis or Devers could see time at DH this year.

SP1: Sale
SP2: Price
SP3: Pomeranz (DL)
SP4: ERod (when off the DL)
SP5: Porcello
SP6: Wright (suspended)
SP7: Johnson
SP8: Velazquez
SP9: Elias/Beeks/Haley

Closer: Kimbrel (back-up: Smith/Thornburg)
RP2: Smith
RP3: Thornburg (DL)
RP4: Kelly
RP5: Barnes
RP6: Hembree (no options)
RP7: Workman
RP8: Poyner
RP9: Maddox
RP10: Scott
RP11: Wright/Johnson/Elias/Velazquez/Buttrey/Martin/Layne/Jerez...

All-in-all, I like our depth just about everywhere.

Thank you Moon for posting this. I think that we have a very good team assembled here from top to bottom. Plenty of depth everywhere. Infield defense may be an issue but other than that, hey let the games begin I say. I like this team.

[Kimmi]

I would like to say that our impending cliff became a little less steep with the extension of Vazquez.

Good job Dombrowski, and good job to Vazquez as well for being open to an extension at a reasonable price.

[Nick]

It just took extending Vazquez to get off the steep cliff?

Don't get me wrong. I am a Vazquez fan. I'm glad he's been extended. We had a little hiccup with him due to his injury but he looks to back on track. Essentially Sox can have him for 5 years.

I'm pleased Swihart is getting a second look. He's also had a little detour due to his injury while playing left field and Sox really not sure where to play him. I still think he has plenty in his tank. He's also under team control for 5 years.

Basically we have locked up C, 2B, 3B, LF and DH. If Martinez opts out we have his $20M+ to replace him so that won't be a big deal. As Moon has pointed out incessantly, finding a replacement at 1B won't be a big deal. Basically that leaves SS, CF and RF. We still have 3 years of Betts and JBJ.

Emergence of Poyner again points to not having to spend much resources for bullpen, as long as you have a reliable closer.

Starters will require real money but it's doable.

[moonslav59]

It just took extending Vazquez to get off the steep cliff?

Don't get me wrong. I am a Vazquez fan. I'm glad he's been extended. We had a little hiccup with him due to his injury but he looks to back on track. Essentially Sox can have him for 5 years.

I'm pleased Swihart is getting a second look. He's also had a little detour due to his injury while playing left field and Sox really not sure where to play him. I still think he has plenty in his tank. He's also under team control for 5 years.

Basically we have locked up C, 2B, 3B, LF and DH. If Martinez opts out we have his $20M+ to replace him so that won't be a big deal. As Moon has pointed out incessantly, finding a replacement at 1B won't be a big deal. Basically that leaves SS, CF and RF. We still have 3 years of Betts and JBJ.

Emergence of Poyner again points to not having to spend much resources for bullpen, as long as you have a reliable closer.

Starters will require real money but it's doable.

We're currently about $3M from the maximu penalty tax limit. Next year, we'll see some signifcant arb raises. To keep Kimbrel and Pom, we'll pretty much have to go more than $40M over the limit or trade a higher priced player- this even with HRam's option not vesting. If it vests, we'll likely see loss of talent or luxury tax penatlies increased starting next season.

The following season, we lose Pablo (and maybe HRam, if he vests), but we'll have majore players to re-sign or replace in kind.

It's not impossible, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the full core of talent together or to replace in kind through free agency or trades.

Here are the numbers...

We're $3-4M under the $40M penalty line. I believe the luxry tax goes up $9M, so that leaves us with about $12M going into next year, assuming we don't sign someone this summer that is signed into next year.

($1M more for Sale's option year and assuming we lose Holt $2.2M and Leon $2.0M, we're now at about $15M under the max tax limit.)

Arb raises:
Betts 2 of 3 ($10.5M > ?)
Bogey 3 of 3 ($7.1M >?)
JBJ 3 of 4 ($6.1M>?)
ERod 2 of 4 ($2.8M)
Thornburg 3 of 3 ($2.1M>?)
Wright 2 of 3 ($1.1M>?)
Smith 2 of 3 ($850K>?)
Workman 2 of 3 ($835K>?)
1st arbs: Barnes, Swihart, Hembree & Elieas.

These arb raises will certainly eat up that $15M and then some.

We lose: (luxury tax dollars)
$13M Kimbrel
$8.5M Pom
$3.8M Kelly

Total: $25.3M

Maybe we'll have $10-15M to repalce these guys or be stuck replacing him with players already in the system (or a little of both).

HRam's $22M would help a lot, and if we add $22M to $13M, we're at $35M to spend on Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly. It might be close to enough.

A vesting HRam contracts almost certainly means we lose Kimbrel and/or Pom or go way over the maz penalty (2nd year rates) and watch our draft pick move down 10 picks.

[Nick]

We're currently about $3M from the maximu penalty tax limit. Next year, we'll see some signifcant arb raises. To keep Kimbrel and Pom, we'll pretty much have to go more than $40M over the limit or trade a higher priced player- this even with HRam's option not vesting. If it vests, we'll likely see loss of talent or luxury tax penatlies increased starting next season.

The following season, we lose Pablo (and maybe HRam, if he vests), but we'll have majore players to re-sign or replace in kind.

It's not impossible, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the full core of talent together or to replace in kind through free agency or trades.

Here are the numbers...

We're $3-4M under the $40M penalty line. I believe the luxry tax goes up $9M, so that leaves us with about $12M going into next year, assuming we don't sign someone this summer that is signed into next year.

($1M more for Sale's option year and assuming we lose Holt $2.2M and Leon $2.0M, we're now at about $15M under the max tax limit.)

Arb raises:
Betts 2 of 3 ($10.5M > ?)
Bogey 3 of 3 ($7.1M >?)
JBJ 3 of 4 ($6.1M>?)
ERod 2 of 4 ($2.8M)
Thornburg 3 of 3 ($2.1M>?)
Wright 2 of 3 ($1.1M>?)
Smith 2 of 3 ($850K>?)
Workman 2 of 3 ($835K>?)
1st arbs: Barnes, Swihart, Hembree & Elieas.

These arb raises will certainly eat up that $15M and then some.

We lose: (luxury tax dollars)
$13M Kimbrel
$8.5M Pom
$3.8M Kelly

Total: $25.3M

Maybe we'll have $10-15M to repalce these guys or be stuck replacing him with players already in the system (or a little of both).

HRam's $22M would help a lot, and if we add $22M to $13M, we're at $35M to spend on Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly. It might be close to enough.

A vesting HRam contracts almost certainly means we lose Kimbrel and/or Pom or go way over the maz penalty (2nd year rates) and watch our draft pick move down 10 picks.

I'm not sure dropping 10 picks if we finish in the top 5 is a big deal. We'll be picking low anyway. We definitely helped ourselves drafting Beni 7th after crappy season. Hopefully that won't happen again soon.

I'm not too worry about losing Kelly unless you think Kelly can replace Kimbrel. Someone else will emerge.

We just need to let this season play out and see where we are.

You never know who will come out of the minors.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure dropping 10 picks if we finish in the top 5 is a big deal. We'll be picking low anyway. We definitely helped ourselves drafting Beni 7th after crappy season. Hopefully that won't happen again soon.

I'm not too worry about losing Kelly unless you think Kelly can replace Kimbrel. Someone else will emerge.

We just need to let this season play out and see where we are.

You never know who will come out of the minors.

We can probably get by without replacing Kelly. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can be our closer next year without a huge drop-off, but then who takes their role as a set-up guy? I doubt we fix all our pen holes within system, but I guess it's possible. If we only have to sign Pom or repalce him, we can do it.

The "cliff" or drop off does not arrive next year, but we'll be at year 2 tax rates and pushing the max tax line.

2020 will be year 3 tax rate, and Pablo's contract will not pay for all the arb raises. I'm thinking we might squeeze another top competitive year into "the window", but a lot has to go right.

Free agents needing to be re-signed or replaced (in kind or better):

Sale
Bogey
Porcello
Thornburg (important assuming we have no Kimbrel)
Moreland

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure dropping 10 picks if we finish in the top 5 is a big deal. We'll be picking low anyway. We definitely helped ourselves drafting Beni 7th after crappy season. Hopefully that won't happen again soon.

By 2020, we'll be a long way away from our last high draft pick. Yes, dropping 10 picks from 27 to 37 is not a big deal, but how long will Henry keep paying high luxury tax costs, including penatly taxes for going over level 1 and maybe 2?

The year 3 tax is 40% (not 17.5% like year one. Then there's a $12% surtax on money spent between $20-40M and 45% for money spent over 40M (year 2 or more).

That's a huge amount in tax costs. I'm not so sure Henry wants to be viewed as the next King George.

[OH FOY!]

Sox Scouts better get the lead out, and start developing then. Eventually this team is going to have to stop signing FA's if they want prolonged teams.
FA's is dying.

[bosoxmal]

The numbers make good conversation, but the bottom line is that the Red Sox and the Yankees are two powerhouses, and the races (East and Overall) will be decided by the 4th of July. S, who goes to the WS, the Red Sox or the Yankees. I say the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Do we really want to be the biggest spenders in MLB for 3-4 years in a row, some by a wide margin?

I remember hating the Yanks for "buying championships."

[Nick]

Do we really want to be the biggest spenders in MLB for 3-4 years in a row, some by a wide margin?

I remember hating the Yanks for "buying championships."

Moon I'm little confused with your position.

I'm all for responsible spending.

It's my hope Hanley's contract does not vest.
I hope Carson Smith can take over the closer's role.
We go without either Pom or Porcello for 2019. It's probably easier to just let Pom go this year and Porcello next year.

That saves $43M (Hanley, Pom and Kimbrel). You throw Wright or Johnson into starting rotation in 2019, Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod, Johnson/Wright is a rotation you can win with. Sign a cheap 1 year deal do platoon at 1B.

We can't have it all.