With so much talk about the sox impending cliff, one would need to look at the Yankees and say something similar albeit further into the future. With the unprecedented ascensions of Sanchez, Judge, Andujar, Torres, Severino, and to some extent Montgomery, the Yanks have shown how youth can be very useful in building a roster. Especially in building a roster around a mistake like Ellsbury. This surprise ascension allowed us to go out and get Stanton, who had 10 years left on his contract. And while Stanton has been good in 2018, he has been far from the elite level player he was billed as. Most guys struggle vs their averages in their first yr in NY, so he is likely headed for some improvement next season, but I digress. With so many big names out there and the big years being speculated, what impact would a massive contract have on the Yankees as they are currently constituted and as it pertains to their lux tax implications. As it currently stands, the Yankees project to be about $70 mil below the cap when considering their losses as well as the arb raises coming. While they are looking at losing Robertson, Happ, Sabathia and Gardner, they have some internal options to replace those guys, although they will most certainly have to dabble in the offseason free agent pool to stay around a 100 win team. Let's look at the impending losses and where a cliff might begin...
After 2018
Sabathia, Happ, Lynn, Gardner, Robertson
Notable arb cases- Gregorius (final), Hicks (final), Betances (final), Bird (1st time eligible, non-tender candidate), Romine (final), Gray (final)
With the most productive pieces in pre-arb and the other guys not in the arb process stable in terms of cost, the Yankees will be adding. With Happ, Lynn, and CC falling out of the rotation and Gray seemingly losing his lunch on the Yankee mound, we will have some issues at the back end of the rotation. We will likely welcome one minor league starter in 2019 be it Swanson, King or Sheffield. With Sevy and Tanaka locked in at 1-2, we will need 2 other pitchers in the rotation. Gray might be one of them, but I doubt it. I would assume we will move Gray and bring in 2 pitchers. Either way, the end of 2018 will bring about the next wave of the build.
After 2019
Chapman (opt out), Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Gray, Hicks
Notable arb cases- Sevy (2nd), Judge (1st), Sanchez (1st), Green (1st), Montgomery (1st)
With a lot of damage done last off-season, the Yanks will likely focus on bringing back some of the assets moving away. The Yanks have already reached out to Didi to re-sign him. I would assume they make a run at Hicks as well. They likely let Betances and Gray walk while bringing back Romine. Chap can opt out, but if his knee issue flares up between now and his opt out, he may keep the last two years of his contract. If Chap does opt out, the Yankees may bring back Betances or look to use some of their minor league talent to fill in. Thankfully, Montgomery should be fully healthy and ready to resume his career in the middle of our rotation
After 2020
Tanaka, Ellsbury, Stanton (opt out)
Notable arb cases- Sevy (third), Judge (2nd), Sanchez (2nd), Green (2nd), Andujar (1st), Holder (1st), Torres (1st), Montgomery (2nd)
With the arb cases piling up, getting out from Ellsbury's contract is a god send. We will likely see another big foray into the free agent market as Tanaka comes up on free agency. This is probably the penultimate push into the FA market before we really start to look at extending home grown core talent like Sevy and Judge
After 2021
Chapman (if not opted out)
Notable arb cases- Sevy (fourth), Judge (3rd), Sanchez (3rd), Green (3rd), Andujar (2nd), Holder (2nd), Torres (2nd), Montgomery (3rd)
This is the final year before the major free agents start to pile up. If Chap hadn't already bowed out, his contract ends here. This means our team likely eats his contract to pay the arb eligible guys. We likely make a final foray into free agency on a shorter term deal to get ready for the hell that is to come
After 2022
Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Green, Montgomery
Notable arb cases- Andujar (3rd), Holder (3rd), Torres (3rd)
This is where I can see a cliff upcoming. If we don't draft and develop well in the interim and go bonkers after 2018, then we will have trouble maintaining beyond 2022. It will be hard to keep the band together if we already have more than just Stanton on the roster. Sevy, assuming good health and shaking the recent poor run, is shaping up to be a huge pitcher long term. Judge will get a monster deal. If Sanchez hits again, so will he. Andujar and Torres will cost a boatload in arb as well.
After 2023
Andujar, Holder
After 2024
Torres
That's the breakdown going forward. Good drafting and development got us to where we are now. If it stops abruptly, we will fall apart after 2022. If it doesn't, maybe it continues