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Thread: Who Should the Red Sox Trade For?

  1. #1111
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    According to Fangraphs WAR "might" be as much as ~17% off. That's a pretty significant margin of error!

    I'm really just having a little fun with this. It's interesting that in the original debate Bell was saying that Bogaerts WAR for this year would project to be ~6.0, Harmony was saying that it could be as low as 5.3, and Fangraphs says that due to the margin of error both of them might be right because due to the margin of error, statistically they're the same number! LOL
    Indeed, using the 17 percent margin of error, Xander Bogaerts' current fWAR of 3.2 could be as high as 3.744 or as low as 2.656.

    If the 17 percent margin of error applies equally to Baseball Reference's WAR, Bogaerts' current bWAR of 2.1 could be as high as 2.457 or as low as 1.743.

    Decent discussion.
    Last edited by harmony; 07-17-2018 at 02:15 PM.

  2. #1112
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    What would make him cheap would also make him undesirable to acquire. The Mets are at the end of their patience with him. Before his arm injury, he was very frustrating with high pitch counts and lots of walks. He seemed to be gettin his act together right before his surgery. Post surgery, he has been regained his form as a frustratingly inconsistent pitcher. He might be adequate for our 5th slot, but I wouldn’t offer much for him.
    But there are also plenty of reasons to not be frustrated with Zack Wheeler, such as his velocity is up this year and his walks are at a career low. He's not going to stay on as a team ace, but if they deal him NOW, they are the most poorly run franchise in MLB

  3. #1113
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Indeed, using the 17 percent margin of error, Xander Bogaerts' current fWAR of 3.2 could be as high as 3.744 or as low as 2.656.

    If the 17 percent margin of error applies equally to Baseball Reference's WAR, Bogaerts' current bWAR of 2.1 could be as high as 2.457 or as low as 1.743.

    Decent discussion.
    Yep. And that will project to a maximum WAR of ~7.0 or a minimum WAR of ~5.0, all of which are statistically the same number because of that nasty margin of error.

    IOW that entire discussion with Bell was a waste of time. You two were talking about what could be the same number (within the margin of error) and didn't know it! LOL
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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  4. #1114
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    I just hope TalkSox doesn't trade for Pumpsie Green at the deadline. Could hurt morale.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  5. #1115
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    But there are also plenty of reasons to not be frustrated with Zack Wheeler, such as his velocity is up this year and his walks are at a career low. He's not going to stay on as a team ace, but if they deal him NOW, they are the most poorly run franchise in MLB
    They are pretty poorly run. It's anyone's guess what they will do.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  6. #1116
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I just hope TalkSox doesn't trade for Pumpsie Green at the deadline. Could hurt morale.
    I had enough of that guy in "that other chat room" to last me, thanks. Strangely enough, he's a really nice guy in real life. Go figure.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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  7. #1117
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    They are pretty poorly run. It's anyone's guess what they will do.
    There is more truth to this than there should be...

  8. #1118
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    I had enough of that guy in "that other chat room" to last me, thanks. Strangely enough, he's a really nice guy in real life. Go figure.
    Yeah, funny how people become so much nicer IRL. I hardly ever talk about trading Pedroia when I log off.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  9. #1119
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    Wrong color.

    He's thinking more of a lavender.
    Is the last name Roid?

  10. #1120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitch View Post
    Ha! Yeah, it's a fair point. I think with Bogaerts it was more that he was comfortable at SS and not at 3rd, more than maximising his potential earnings, though. But then maybe that's seeing it through rose-tinted glasses because he's at the Sox.
    I always got the impression that Bogaerts looked at the move to 3rd as a 'demotion', that he was being taken off of the premier infield position.

  11. #1121
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Dodgers are getting really serious if they offered Yusniel Diaz for Machado. This is a big mistake. They paid 31 million, just for rights to sign him. In the Futures Games he showed what kind of potential he has.
    The Dodgers are still trying to stay under the luxury cap, so they will need some salary relief in one form or another. I'm guessing that is a reason why they're willing to part with a top prospect.

  12. #1122
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPLENDIDSPLINTER View Post
    Is the last name Roid?
    yup
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  13. #1123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I always got the impression that Bogaerts looked at the move to 3rd as a 'demotion', that he was being taken off of the premier infield position.
    Yup. And his urge to be like Jetter.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  14. #1124
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    c'mon guys. Don't get me started on that trade. I promise you're not going to like it!
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  15. #1125
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    A lot of talk these days about Zach Britton. I can understand the Sox would like a quality left hand reliever in the BP but is Britton the right guy. He was lights out in the past, but that was then and he has gone through an injury and I am not so sure we want to take that risk, especially if it would mean giving up a lot to get him.

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