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Thread: Magic Number Watch

  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

    Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

    9-3 Johnson
    5-2 Velazquez
    3-1 Wright

    Total 17-6 (.739)

    Of course how the team did when Sale didn't start doesn't matter, but it really didn't hurt the team to have to find starters to take his place.

    (We are 5-4 in Eovaldi starts.)
    As you point out, that the Red Sox have capable relievers is incidental. This is a close race and Sale winning would be great.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

    Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

    9-3 Johnson
    5-2 Velazquez
    3-1 Wright

    Total 17-6 (.739)

    i get that the days of W-L for cy young are long over. but the above highlights that Sale hasnt really been important to us this regular season. could be another reason a voter might lean verlander instead......
    other names i have posted under: none

  3. #108
    #SurvivingFarrell Station 13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

    Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

    9-3 Johnson
    5-2 Velazquez
    3-1 Wright

    Total 17-6 (.739)

    Of course how the team did when Sale didn't start doesn't matter, but it really didn't hurt the team to have to find starters to take his place.

    (We are 5-4 in Eovaldi starts.)

    Sale and E-Rod has toss like 20 innings total in the last 2+ months, with Sale at around 8 innings. Bullpen become a disaster in the midst of it. It has definitely hurt the team.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Station 13 View Post
    Sale and E-Rod has toss like 20 innings total in the last 2+ months, with Sale at around 8 innings. Bullpen become a disaster in the midst of it. It has definitely hurt the team.
    The pen was imploding before Sale & ERod went on the DL, and the addition of Eovaldi, who has gone as deep as ERod goes and middle/long relievers like Johnson, Velazquez and Wright have taken up the slack of lost starter innings.

    I'm not saying the pen hasn't suffered, but we have won at a very high rate with Johnson, Velazquez and Wright starting in the place of Sale & ERod.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    bWAR takes runs allowed and makes adjustments from there. (including defense and such)
    fWAR starts with FIP and makes adjustments from there.
    But if that is your case, Sale has a significant lead in bWAR over Verlander this year. And he would have to be a massive disappointment in those 40 IP to narrow the gap.

    The missing IP will certainly be a factor, but Sale is a better candidate than many realize...

  6. #111
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    But if that is your case, Sale has a significant lead in bWAR over Verlander this year. And he would have to be a massive disappointment in those 40 IP to narrow the gap.

    The missing IP will certainly be a factor, but Sale is a better candidate than many realize...
    It's kind of like the BA title, if someone has too few PAs, he can still win, if he'd still be in the lead after going oh for the differential between his PAs and the min number needed.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's kind of like the BA title, if someone has too few PAs, he can still win, if he'd still be in the lead after going oh for the differential between his PAs and the min number needed.
    Right - and that is a pure rate stat with a minimum number of ABs. (502) The ERA title has a minimum number of innings (162, which Sale has not quite hit).

    Now looking at the numbers, Sale's IP per start is not greatly lower than Verlander (6.0 vs 6.3). That amounts to about 10-11 innings over the season - again, not much. What really is more relevant is Sale being mostly a noncontributor for the last 2 months of the season. There was a ton of value created in the starts he did make - but that the team has benefitted from his success less frequently than Verlander and Kluber by a pretty wide margin DOES matter - enough to make this pretty close. Again, if Sale wins it is a perfectly acceptable and just result.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    i get that the days of W-L for cy young are long over. but the above highlights that Sale hasnt really been important to us this regular season. could be another reason a voter might lean verlander instead......
    Well, how much of that is due to the criminally poor run support he received that the 7-8-9 starters did not?

  9. #114
    Deity Slasher9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well, how much of that is due to the criminally poor run support he received that the 7-8-9 starters did not?
    oh i get it. thats why i had my first sentence. my point was that Moons stats in that particular post only helped my ascertain that Verlander is the layup Cy winner.
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  10. #115
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    Right - and that is a pure rate stat with a minimum number of ABs. (502) The ERA title has a minimum number of innings (162, which Sale has not quite hit).

    Now looking at the numbers, Sale's IP per start is not greatly lower than Verlander (6.0 vs 6.3). That amounts to about 10-11 innings over the season - again, not much. What really is more relevant is Sale being mostly a noncontributor for the last 2 months of the season. There was a ton of value created in the starts he did make - but that the team has benefitted from his success less frequently than Verlander and Kluber by a pretty wide margin DOES matter - enough to make this pretty close. Again, if Sale wins it is a perfectly acceptable and just result.
    Sale might reach 162 IP.

    (BTW, it's 502 PAs not ABs.)

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Sale might reach 162 IP.

    (BTW, it's 502 PAs not ABs.)
    Of the four Red Sox in serious contention for postseason hardware I'd list Sale as the 2nd likeliest to actually win.

    I'd list in probability

    Betts
    Sale
    Cora
    Martinez

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    Of the four Red Sox in serious contention for postseason hardware I'd list Sale as the 2nd likeliest to actually win.

    I'd list in probability

    Betts
    Sale
    Cora
    Martinez
    Looks about right.

    I'd go with this...

    Cy Young: Sandy Leon

    MVP: Betts

    Silver Slugger: JD

    Gold Glove: JBJ (CF), Betts (RF) and maybe Leon at Catcher.

  13. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Looks about right.

    I'd go with this...

    Cy Young: Sandy Leon

    MVP: Betts

    Silver Slugger: JD

    Gold Glove: JBJ (CF), Betts (RF) and maybe Leon at Catcher.
    Has sandy leon pitched enough innings to earn the Cy Young? I don't believe he qualifies for the ERA title........

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillyWilliams View Post
    Has sandy leon pitched enough innings to earn the Cy Young? I don't believe he qualifies for the ERA title........
    He'll be the first to win with 0 IP.



  15. #120

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He'll be the first to win with 0 IP.


    I guess it would be based on his CERA alone??!!


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