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Thread: Astros Cliff

  1. #1

    Astros Cliff

    I know many on here (myself included) have brought up the sox impending cliff after 2019. Well, the class of the AL last season and maybe this season is staring one right in the face as well. Now, the Astros have a good farm with 2 in the top 10 and 3 in the top 50, but there is no guarantee they will be able to flesh out their roster with them. The Astros start seeing attrition this offseason

    After 2018-
    The Astros lose Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel. They will still have Verlander and Cole as well as McCullers. There is a top 5 prospect in Whitley who will be ready as well. So they should still be able to field a good rotation for 2019, but they will lose proven performers and depth. On offense, the Astros lose Marwin Gonzalez, who had a down year this season, but is still a clear asset to the club due to his versatility. Now, they should be able to have a pretty good offense still while bringing up Tucker or Alvarez to fill out the OF with Gonzalez gone

    After 2019-
    The Astros fall apart. Verlander and Cole hit the bricks. Springer is a FA. Correa enters the big money phase of arb. Bregman enters arb. This is when being a 100 win team for a few years in a row start to hurt. They'll bring up their big guys and won't have premium talent to replace them

    So with the Sox and Stros battling it out in the ALCS and a good chance they are both expected to be the class of 2019, their outlook beyond this season isn't rosy either
    Hal sucks

  2. #2
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A lot depends on how high their budget can and will go.

    If they choose to spend like the Sox this year, they can keep the window open for longer than we can (at $39M over the limit).

  3. #3
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    It's going to be hard for any team to sustain success with the changes we've seen.

    For one thing cheap young talent isn't staying cheap as long. Mookie made 10.5 mill this year and is predicted to make 18.7 mill next year. In his final arb year he might make 27 mill or something like that? Deservedly so, of course. But not exactly cheap.

  4. #4
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The Astros still have some nice young arms, and their farm is not empty.

    What happens with Keuchel and Morton will be interesting.

  5. #5
    The Astros aren't a big market team. While they are in one of our largest cities, they don't have the same revenue as the Yankees, Sox, Dodgers, Cubs etc. They locked up Altuve, which they needed to do. They still have a great young core coming through. But they are gonna be hit much harder than the sox will when their guys need to get paid. The other thing the Astros have is a ring in their pocket. They don't have to artificially prop open a window to get that elusive ring. If it is looking like it's gonna collapse, they will let it fall. I think their window extends into next year with their rotation still being good and their lineup not losing much. But come 2020, they will collapse.
    Hal sucks

  6. #6
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    The Astros aren't a big market team. While they are in one of our largest cities, they don't have the same revenue as the Yankees, Sox, Dodgers, Cubs etc. They locked up Altuve, which they needed to do. They still have a great young core coming through. But they are gonna be hit much harder than the sox will when their guys need to get paid. The other thing the Astros have is a ring in their pocket. They don't have to artificially prop open a window to get that elusive ring. If it is looking like it's gonna collapse, they will let it fall. I think their window extends into next year with their rotation still being good and their lineup not losing much. But come 2020, they will collapse.
    They are not a big market team, for sure, but they have a lot of money to spend due to all those years of spending peanuts as they rebuilt.

    They had a $26M budget in 2013.
    $50M in 2014
    $72M in 2015
    $97M in '16
    $124M in '17
    $160M+ this year.

    I could see them reaching the limit and even going over for a year or two to keep them in the race. They can and will make money, if they keep winning while spending $210-235M.

  7. #7
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    I don't follow the Astros closely enough, but if they have a good farm, there is no cliff. They likely won't be able to sustain the level that they're at now, but with a strong farm, they can replenish lost players. They should be able to stay competitive.

  8. #8
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I don't follow the Astros closely enough, but if they have a good farm, there is no cliff. They likely won't be able to sustain the level that they're at now, but with a strong farm, they can replenish lost players. They should be able to stay competitive.
    The Verlander trade barely hurt their farm.

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