And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

Trey Ball. Sox couldn't have foreseen Groome's injuries.

The 2013 draft had some really great prospects taken right after Ball.

Groome was also taken 5 picks later than Ball was.

It’s a little unfair to hold picks after Ball against him when the picks after Groome have yet to have sufficient time to make the majors. If we are operating on the hypothesis that Groome never makes the majors, certainly people drafted after him are going to.

Also, while Ball was picked higher, Groome only fell due to signability issues. Groome signed for nearly $1mill more. In the slot system, that balances out the draft pick number at minimum.

And while Ball has apparently abandoned pitching, he is still in the system as an outfielder, which is probably the shallowest position in the Sox system. If Groome flatout retires and Ball goes on to be even a system depth outfielder (with maybe the occasional call up, like a Sam Travis type), do you still stand by that analysis?

[jacksonianmarch]

With Kimbrel, yes. Without, we lose 2 of the big 3 for sure: Sale, Bogey or Porcello.

Remember, we lose Pablo's $19M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M, and Nunez/Holt/Thornburg's $10M+.

For 2020, you have..
Price $31 mil
Medicals $15 mil
Pedroia $13.75
Betts (projection) $25 mil
Eovaldi $17 mil
Vazquez $4.45 mil

That's $106.2 mil.

You will still have to pay:
Benintendi- arb 1
Bradley- Arb 4
ERod- Arb 3
Barnes- Arb 2
plus others. But if Barnes is your closer and racks up saves, those cause the cost of arb to rise dramatically. Let's just say for argument's sake the cost of the above 4 players is $30 mil

That leaves you with a sunk cost of $136.2 mil. If Pedroia cannot play (distinct possibility), you will need to fill 1B, 2B, SS, DH, SP1 and SP2 while also taking into account pen and minor costs to fill out the 40 man. The cap for 2020 is $208 mil. Can you even do that for $71.8mil? Would you even want to? If you signed Bogey for example to a $25 mil AAV contract. That leaves you with $46.8 mil to fill 3 position player positions and 2 rotation slots. Would you be willing to ride with Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson and Velasquez in your rotation? How about Chavis and Dalbec at 1b and DH respectively? Doing so would probably gift wrap the division to the Yanks.

This is why I am saying DD's approach this year seems foolish. How can you leave a gaping hole in the pen when your team is within their window. He's gonna go over the final threshold again. Just do it, be the favorites for another title and then let the chips fall where they may after 2019

[mvp 78]

And while Ball has apparently abandoned pitching, he is still in the system as an outfielder, which is probably the shallowest position in the Sox system. If Groome flatout retires and Ball goes on to be even a system depth outfielder (with maybe the occasional call up, like a Sam Travis type), do you still stand by that analysis?

They've never actually said that he's given up pitching, only that he's going to start working on hitting. I wonder if they try to keep him doing both.

[notin]

How can you leave a gaping hole in the pen when your team is within their window. He's gonna go over the final threshold again. Just do it, be the favorites for another title and then let the chips fall where they may after 2019

Mostly because it’s January 8th.

There are still at least 50 unsigned free agents left, plus other possibilities. Not only can a lot happen, a lot will. All around the league....

[notin]

They've never actually said that he's given up pitching, only that he's going to start working on hitting. I wonder if they try to keep him doing both.

So ... Dave McCarty 2.0?

Either way, do my points and your assumption influence your decision on which was the worse pick?

[mvp 78]

So ... Dave McCarty 2.0?

Either way, do my points and your assumption influence your decision on which was the worse pick?

No.

I think it's too late to transition Ball. If he gets good, he'll start burning through option years before he's really ready.

When you have a top 10 pick, you need to nail it. Outside of the top 10 it becomes more of a guessing game than it already is. The Sox "lucked" into Groome, but it hasn't worked out. Groome had an ace ceiling and you grab that guy every time. Ball was just an "athlete" that they overvalued.

[Station 13]

This offseason has been boring as shit.

Off-season pitch clock please.

[notin]

No.

I think it's too late to transition Ball. If he gets good, he'll start burning through option years before he's really ready.

When you have a top 10 pick, you need to nail it. Outside of the top 10 it becomes more of a guessing game than it already is. The Sox "lucked" into Groome, but it hasn't worked out. Groome had an ace ceiling and you grab that guy every time. Ball was just an "athlete" that they overvalued.

That’s fair. Except top ten picks, especially high schoolers, should really not expected to be locks. The success rate might not be as high as you think...

[mvp 78]

That’s fair. Except top ten picks, especially high schoolers, should really not expected to be locks. The success rate might not be as high as you think...

I don't believe HS kids are ever expected to be locks. There's always extra risk with those guys.

[kenmeister]

For 2020, you have..
Price $31 mil
Medicals $15 mil
Pedroia $13.75
Betts (projection) $25 mil
Eovaldi $17 mil
Vazquez $4.45 mil

That's $106.2 mil.

You will still have to pay:
Benintendi- arb 1
Bradley- Arb 4
ERod- Arb 3
Barnes- Arb 2
plus others. But if Barnes is your closer and racks up saves, those cause the cost of arb to rise dramatically. Let's just say for argument's sake the cost of the above 4 players is $30 mil

That leaves you with a sunk cost of $136.2 mil. If Pedroia cannot play (distinct possibility), you will need to fill 1B, 2B, SS, DH, SP1 and SP2 while also taking into account pen and minor costs to fill out the 40 man. The cap for 2020 is $208 mil. Can you even do that for $71.8mil? Would you even want to? If you signed Bogey for example to a $25 mil AAV contract. That leaves you with $46.8 mil to fill 3 position player positions and 2 rotation slots. Would you be willing to ride with Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson and Velasquez in your rotation? How about Chavis and Dalbec at 1b and DH respectively? Doing so would probably gift wrap the division to the Yanks.

This is why I am saying DD's approach this year seems foolish. How can you leave a gaping hole in the pen when your team is within their window. He's gonna go over the final threshold again. Just do it, be the favorites for another title and then let the chips fall where they may after 2019

Medicals?

Unfortunately I don't see how they can keep Bogaerts after 2019, and yeah my hopes for Pedroia are low, especially in 2020. I'll be watching both Lowrie and Iglesias to see if they sign just 1 year deals.

[iortiz]

For 2020, you have..
Price $31 mil
Medicals $15 mil
Pedroia $13.75
Betts (projection) $25 mil
Eovaldi $17 mil
Vazquez $4.45 mil

That's $106.2 mil.

You will still have to pay:
Benintendi- arb 1
Bradley- Arb 4
ERod- Arb 3
Barnes- Arb 2
plus others. But if Barnes is your closer and racks up saves, those cause the cost of arb to rise dramatically. Let's just say for argument's sake the cost of the above 4 players is $30 mil

That leaves you with a sunk cost of $136.2 mil. If Pedroia cannot play (distinct possibility), you will need to fill 1B, 2B, SS, DH, SP1 and SP2 while also taking into account pen and minor costs to fill out the 40 man. The cap for 2020 is $208 mil. Can you even do that for $71.8mil? Would you even want to? If you signed Bogey for example to a $25 mil AAV contract. That leaves you with $46.8 mil to fill 3 position player positions and 2 rotation slots. Would you be willing to ride with Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Johnson and Velasquez in your rotation? How about Chavis and Dalbec at 1b and DH respectively? Doing so would probably gift wrap the division to the Yanks.

This is why I am saying DD's approach this year seems foolish. How can you leave a gaping hole in the pen when your team is within their window. He's gonna go over the final threshold again. Just do it, be the favorites for another title and then let the chips fall where they may after 2019

Offseason hasn't ended.

I agree that DD has to throw the house through the window (or whatever you say it in english LOL!) but I'm confident he has all figured out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Medicals?

Unfortunately I don't see how they can keep Bogaerts after 2019, and yeah my hopes for Pedroia are low, especially in 2020. I'll be watching both Lowrie and Iglesias to see if they sign just 1 year deals.

Each team needs to count medical benefits and other benefits in as compensation. These amount to around $14-$15 mil a season. I know, it’s stupid

[harmony]

That’s fair. Except top ten picks, especially high schoolers, should really not expected to be locks. The success rate might not be as high as you think...

In the past two days the Seattle Mariners have signed the No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft and No. 2 pick in the 2009 draft.

Tim Beckham and Dustin Ackley are expected to provide only infield depth.

[moonslav59]

In the past two days the Seattle Mariners have signed the No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft and No. 2 pick in the 2009 draft.

Tim Beckham and Dustin Ackley are expected to provide only infield depth.

...and some still can't get over Trey Ball with the 7th pick.

[harmony]

That’s fair. Except top ten picks, especially high schoolers, should really not expected to be locks. The success rate might not be as high as you think...

...and some still can't get over Trey Ball with the 7th pick.

Unlike Tim Beckham and Dustin Ackley, Trey Ball is unlikely to post 3 fWAR in a single season.