A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

When Pedroia signed his deal, he left AAV on the table in exchange for years. He effectively earned the money coming to him already. I don’t begrudge him for collecting and trying to come back

[oldtimer]

The no resigning/ no acquisition 25 man roster may look like this:

1. Betts RF
2. Beni LF
3. Bogey SS
4. JDM DH
5. Devers 3B
6. Moreland 1B
7. JBJ CF
8. Holt-Nunez 2B
9. Vazquez-Leon C
Utility: 2 from Swihart, Chavis, Ockimey, Lin, Hernandez, Travis & Dalbec

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright
RP: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Poyner, Velazquez
Plus one from: Scott, Walden, Smith, Thornburg, Maddox, Cuevas, Lakins, Feltman, DHernandez

My assumptions are a little different as Pedroia will be given a chance and of course no one knows how the knee will hold up. Wright had the same type of surgery and appears to be in the same category as Pedroia.


My assumptions are:

1. Betts RF
2. Beni LF
3. Bogey SS
4. JDM DH
5. Devers 3B
6. Moreland
7. JBJ CF
8. Pedroia 2B
9/!0. Vaz/Leon C
11/13. Utility Holt, Nunez, Pearce

SP. Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Eovaldi
RP. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Feltman, MaddoxTradeale, (Wright if healthy, or Johnson/Velazquez)

Tradeable assets: Swihart, Travis, Scott, Smith, Thornburg
Others: Don't think Hernandez is a long term solution at 2nd as he would have to come back from shoulder surgery
Hate to lose Lin or Chavis as both are certainly either ML talents or close that we might need, especially with Pedroia still uncertain.

[Slasher9]

[B]

Here we go...

Let's start with our players that are up for free agency:

Craig Kimbrel: a top closer in MLB for many many years, but was not much of a factor near the end of the season and through the playoffs. No doubt, we will need someone to step up in a major way or re-sign or replace him, in kind. The next guy was probably our best option for an in-house solution.

Joe Kelly: a very good set-up man and one of the hardest throwers in MLB. He gave us a great World Series performance, but was inconsistent at times this year.

Drew Pomeranz: His 2018 was nothing like his 2017, and his poor season forced us to acquire Eovaldi. That worked out well for us, but we will not have to replace Pomeranz. The next guy is another story.

Nate Eovaldi: DD struck gold and then some with the trade he pulled to get Eovaldi. Replacing Eovaldi with some mixture of Johnson, Velazquez and Wright is an option, as perhaps DD could look for another starter like Eovaldi next July, if we need one, but my guess is a strong RH'd starter is a top priority this winter.

Steve Pearce: DD proved lightening can strike twice when he essentially replaced HRam with Pearce. When Moreland got hurt (again), Pearce showed he could hit righties pretty well and turned into an essential piece to our WS run.

Ian Kinsler: Like Pomeranz, we won't miss him, but he did bring some stability to the 2B position, when we needed it badly. His offense fell off a cliff, but his defense was very valuable until the 18th inning game gaff heard round the world.

Brandon Phillips: Another player that will not be missed, and his role can probably be filled from within the system.


There's a lot to discuss in the coming months. I love our chances next year, even if we barely do anything in the off season, but I seriously doubt we got that route.

Let the debates, discussions and arguments begin, but keep it about baseball. No politics. No personal insults.

Thank you.

First off - congrats right back at you sir. was a GLORIOUS 2018 season. now the fun that is Hot Stove begins.
my take on our FA's:
Kimbrel: good luck in your new town.
Kelly: priority resign.
Pom: good luck in your new town.
Eovaldi: try and resign. lets not go too crazy here with years though.
Pearce: try and resign.
Kinsler: good luck in your new town.
Philips: good luck in your new town.

[moonslav59]

You’re assuming wright will be ok with his knee the way it is.

Yes, that may be assuming a lot, but word was he was almost available for the WS.

We also have Johnson and Velazquez, who should both be able to up their innings next year.

If all 3 fail, DD will just find the next Eovaldi in July 2019.

[moonslav59]

Moon, the tax threshhold is $206M for 2019.

Thanks.

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

Is this possible?
$12M x 4 Eovaldi
$7M x 4 Kelly
$7M x 3 Pearce
$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

[notin]

My assumptions are a little different as Pedroia will be given a chance and of course no one knows how the knee will hold up. Wright had the same type of surgery and appears to be in the same category as Pedroia.


My assumptions are:

1. Betts RF
2. Beni LF
3. Bogey SS
4. JDM DH
5. Devers 3B
6. Moreland
7. JBJ CF
8. Pedroia 2B
9/!0. Vaz/Leon C
11/13. Utility Holt, Nunez, Pearce

SP. Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Eovaldi
RP. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Feltman, MaddoxTradeale, (Wright if healthy, or Johnson/Velazquez)

Tradeable assets: Swihart, Travis, Scott, Smith, Thornburg
Others: Don't think Hernandez is a long term solution at 2nd as he would have to come back from shoulder surgery
Hate to lose Lin or Chavis as both are certainly either ML talents or close that we might need, especially with Pedroia still uncertain.

Wright’s career was ended by spinal stenosis. But Grady Sizemore had micro fracture knee surgery that effectively ended his career. And Matt Kemp had the same surgery and moved on....

[Hitch]

Thanks.

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

Is this possible?
$12M x 4 Eovaldi
$7M x 4 Kelly
$7M x 3 Pearce
$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

If offered the opportunity, I would take that right now.

I want as much of this team back together as possible for one more year.

[moonslav59]

If offered the opportunity, I would take that right now.

I want as much of this team back together as possible for one more year.

Over the years, Soix management has been pretty good at knowing when to cut ties with players, even those who have been successful or even legendary. I'm not sure how they project Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce going forward. They may see a similar player out there who looks better or is cheaper than the three I mentioned, but I'd be happy with starting the season with Eovaldi, Kelly, Pearce and a lefty pen arm and $4-6M to use in the summer. (Assuming we trade Swihart)

Replace these IP or PAs with this...
PAs
207 Swihart and 195 HRam with more from Pearce, Vaz and Chavis/Ockimey/Dalbec/Travis
143 Kinsler and 27 Phillips with more from Holt, Nunez or Pedey/Hernandez
IP'd
74 Pomeranz with more from ERod, Wright and Johnson/Velazquez
62 Kimbrel with more from Brasier, Workman, Wright, Poyner, Smith/Thornburg/Scott

[FredLynn]

My first question is... will Pedroia be healthy next season?

I think that has a major impact on our infield.

Pedroia is toast. I don't know why so many people here are thinking he will contribute in a substantial way to the team next year. He might be able to play occasionally, but his knee is shot. IMO he should retire so he can delay the need for joint replacement surgery.

[sk7326]

A realistic view of 2019.

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

[Station 13]

A realistic view of 2019.

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

It's hard to top the 2018 season. 119 total wins. 7-1 on the road in the playoff. Could have been 7-0!

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to top the 2018 season. 119 total wins. 7-1 on the road in the playoff. Could have been 7-0!

It's impossible to top. It was the dream season.

[notin]

Thanks.

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

Is this possible?
$12M x 4 Eovaldi
$7M x 4 Kelly
$7M x 3 Pearce
$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

The years are a bit much for Kelly and Pearce, although not horrible. I’m just comparing them to recent deals.

Is $4-6 mill for a lefty reliever even possible? Mediocre LOOGYs like Boone Logan and Zach Duke were getting more 5 years ago. Besides, Poyner is a minimum wage guy and Robby Scott isn’t dead yet...

[moonslav59]

The years are a bit much for Kelly and Pearce, although not horrible. I’m just comparing them to recent deals.

Is $4-6 mill for a lefty reliever even possible? Mediocre LOOGYs like Boone Logan and Zach Duke were getting more 5 years ago. Besides, Poyner is a minimum wage guy and Robby Scott isn’t dead yet...

I put my numbers high enough or long enough to pretty much make sure we'd get them all. I thought of Kelly for 3 years and Pearce for 2 (like Moreland), but to get them, it might take one more year. We might get Kelly for $25M/4 or $21M/3 and Pearce for $18M/3 or $15M/2. I'm think E-O might get more than $50M/4.

[Hitch]

A realistic view of 2019.

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

Almost certainly. It will be near impossible to to this. It was as perfect a season as we could have dreamt.