Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.
https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-so...n-be-replaced/
I think that the amount of money that JH has will be an absolute direct factor in how much he is willing to spend. The amount he has has everything to do with how much is willing to spend. He knows what comes in and what goes out. It is a fun exercise for us to try and project how much he is willing to spend isn't it. He will pay more in taxes than most but he won't if he doesn't feel that the return on his money will more than replace what is going out. With respect to paying taxes, quite honestly I know no one who looks forward to paying them whether they are rich or poor.
I don't think that's an accurate interpretation of what posters are saying about Kimbrel. I love Kimbrel. I want him here and I'd like to keep him as our closer for next year. I have never liked what we gave up for him. If we do re-sign him, I am pretty sure I'm not going to like the contract. At the same time, I'll continue to be happy to have him on my team.
This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.
My belief has always been that there are far better ways to spend your resources than on a closer, or bullpen in general. I'm not saying that building a strong pen isn't important, just that it can be done relatively cheaply. There is a reason why replacement level for relievers is so low.
It is easy to say that now. The Sox were able to pull away down the stretch and win the division with something to spare. But it was a close race with the Yankees most of the season. Kimbrel had 42 saves , while most of the bullpen had their ups and downs. I do agree that giving Kimbrel a huge 5 year contract would not be smart. But thinking you can win with just any jabroni closing games is not smart either.
Well , certainly no player is worth a ludicrous contract. But there is no consensus on just how much is considered ludicrous. There is a free market out there. People like Bill James don't consider the business side of it. They are just looking at player performance and how it shows up in things like WAR. But they forget that having a winning and exciting team results in much higher attendance, TV ratings , advertising money , concession sales , merchandise revenue, fan interest,public relations and so forth. These things are important. The perennial low budget teams lose out on all of this. They become reduced to being pretty much welfare cases. Wards of MLB. Content to lose , rebuild , lose , look at the empty seats and take the revenue sharing and luxury tax money. The kicker is that their owners are every bit as wealthy as the others.