A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

In order for the Sox to make the wildcard game, they have to play better than Tampa Bay and Texas, and stave off Oakland and Cleveland who they are in a 3 way tie with. Maybe they can surge past Oakland, Cleveland, and Texas, but honestly it's quite a stretch. I'm surprised so many posters think that, in the end, this team will make the playoffs. What is your cause for optimism? Even if they make the one game playoff with Tampa Bay, they'd have to win to move on to the division series.

The fact is we're 2 games out of the second Wild Card spot on June 13.

The team has been hugely disappointing thus far and no one should be shaking their pompoms.

On the other hand it's the same team that was the class of baseball last year.

Every fan can decide for themselves whether there's reason for optimism or not. I still have optimism but I wouldn't bet a pile of money on us either.

Bottom line is there's a lot of uncertainty either way, and it's a long freakin' season.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is a lot of uncertainty in the rest of the season, that is for sure. Where the sox are a bit hamstrung is that every team they are contending with has ample opportunity to improve, either via using funds or via their minor league system. The sox are up against the final threshold again and their minor league system isn't great. I highly, highly doubt Henry allows the sox to drop another 10 spots in the draft, especially if the team is only in the running for the WC by the time of the deadline. Right now, the sox are in a three way tie for the 16th pick in the draft next year. If that glut doesn't move and the sox make an unsuccessful deal that keeps them there but puts them over the final threshold, they'll drop from 16 to 26 and forfeit over $1.1 mil in draft pool plus the 5% overage and the ability to snag a much better prospect.

It's one thing to be the class of the league and drop from 33 to 43, it is another to miss out on the playoffs and drop from 16 to 26

[iortiz]

the scene is alex cora's office , yesterday at 1:00 pm : Alex is at his desk , making out the lineup . Ferdy nerdwell enters , without knocking. Ferdy : " hi alex ." cora : " you again ? What do you want ?" ferdy : " alex , my brother harold and i think today would be a good day to rest jbj , what with texas starting a mediocre right hander and all . I think mr. Werner agrees . " cora : " okay . Sounds kind of dumb , but i'll try it . ". Ferdy : " you can put brock in left and move beni to center ." cora : " what if beni gets hurt or ejected or something?" ferdy : " well , you can't use jackie on his day off . That would spoil the plan . You could move mookie to center , move brock to right and put the new kid , i forget his name , in left ." cora : " travis ? " ferdy : " yeah , that's it , travis . Put him in left ." cora : " ferdy , we need a win tonight." ferdy : " alex , always remember , don't chase wins ." cora : " shit . Okay . Anything else ? " ferdy : " well , we would like to get a look at poyner tonight ." alex : " that's it ?" ferdy : " yup . Have a nice day , alex ."

lol!

[Bellhorn04]

There is a lot of uncertainty in the rest of the season, that is for sure. Where the sox are a bit hamstrung is that every team they are contending with has ample opportunity to improve, either via using funds or via their minor league system. The sox are up against the final threshold again and their minor league system isn't great. I highly, highly doubt Henry allows the sox to drop another 10 spots in the draft, especially if the team is only in the running for the WC by the time of the deadline. Right now, the sox are in a three way tie for the 16th pick in the draft next year. If that glut doesn't move and the sox make an unsuccessful deal that keeps them there but puts them over the final threshold, they'll drop from 16 to 26 and forfeit over $1.1 mil in draft pool plus the 5% overage and the ability to snag a much better prospect.

It's one thing to be the class of the league and drop from 33 to 43, it is another to miss out on the playoffs and drop from 16 to 26

You're suggesting they might essentially tank for a better draft pick if it seems advantageous?

[notin]

It's one thing to be the class of the league and drop from 33 to 43, it is another to miss out on the playoffs and drop from 16 to 26

I don’t think the chances of drafting a significant player at 26 are that much worse than they are at 16...

[kenmeister]

The fact is we're 2 games out of the second Wild Card spot on June 13.

The team has been hugely disappointing thus far and no one should be shaking their pompoms.

On the other hand it's the same team that was the class of baseball last year.

Every fan can decide for themselves whether there's reason for optimism or not. I still have optimism but I wouldn't bet a pile of money on us either.

Bottom line is there's a lot of uncertainty either way, and it's a long freakin' season.

I always take into account the amount of teams that we are battling when computing odds. It would be one thing if we were 2 games out of the second Wild Card without competition, but Oakland and Cleveland have just as good a chance as us to move ahead if Texas falters, and Texas handled us pretty easily recently.

I know we were a great baseball team last year, but this year's sample size is large enough that I judge this team by its own merits, not of last year's. It is unlikely that anyone on this edition of the Red Sox will crack 30 homers or 100 rbi's. It's not even a guarantee we'll have a 12 game winner on the pitching staff, or someone with 12 saves.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t think the chances of drafting a significant player at 26 are that much worse than they are at 16...

They are. Clearly, the top 10 has the highest hit rate. The next 10 has a good hit rate. Beyond 21, it's a crap shoot.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're suggesting they might essentially tank for a better draft pick if it seems advantageous?

No, there is no way in hell the sox tank.

Let's assume it's July 15th. The sox are 2.5 games out of WC2 and are still around 16-18 in draft pick range. The penalty for dropping from 16 to 26 is far more severe than it would be if the sox were excelling and looking to have a top 5 record in the game. That would need to be weighed when acquiring talent. Now, if the sox are firmly in the WC mix and they go on a run enough to where they're a series sweep from jumping into the divisional lead, then the risk is worth it.

For the most part, any veteran acquisition is going to push the sox over that limit. Now, maybe they get creative and force the accepting team to eat a contract, but that would mean more talent going back the other way. But it is a much more serious question right now than it was last year. The sox dropped from 33rd to 43rd in draft order. They lost $550K in bonus pool due to the drop. The talent you get at 33 is pretty similar to 43. Consider where they are now. The talent at 16 is far better (usually) than the talent obtained at 26. Also, the draft pool difference is DOUBLE what the 33-43 drop was (this year the sox lost $550K, if the sox drop from 16 to 26, they lose $1.1 mil). That is a big penalty. So going over the final threshold this year has a lot more of a penalty attached at will need to be weighed against their odds of winning a title. Let's be honest, if the sox are a WC2 and lose in Tampa vs Snell, then who gives a fuck, right? I don't parade around talking about the Yankees 2015 WC1 clinch, right? Who cares

[dgalehouse]

The goal has to be to win the A.L. East . The Sox have won it three straight years . What happened to " back to back to back to back " ? For the supposed " best Red Sox team ever assembled " , the team that was going to be " just as good maybe even better " , than last year , to hope for the second ( hokey ) wild card is an embarrassment. The best team , best manager , highest payroll. Maybe we can squeak into the second wild card ? Pathetic . Since when is eight games behind in June an insurmountable challenge ? As I stated many times , there were management blunders in the off season and in spring training, but it is still very possible to turn things around . There is too much talent here to let it be wasted .

[Bellhorn04]

No, there is no way in hell the sox tank.

Let's assume it's July 15th. The sox are 2.5 games out of WC2 and are still around 16-18 in draft pick range. The penalty for dropping from 16 to 26 is far more severe than it would be if the sox were excelling and looking to have a top 5 record in the game. That would need to be weighed when acquiring talent. Now, if the sox are firmly in the WC mix and they go on a run enough to where they're a series sweep from jumping into the divisional lead, then the risk is worth it.

For the most part, any veteran acquisition is going to push the sox over that limit.

Cot's shows us with about 6.2 million of room below the death cap of 246 million.

[Bellhorn04]

The goal has to be to win the A.L. East . The Sox have won it three straight years . What happened to " back to back to back to back " ? For the supposed " best Red Sox team ever assembled " , the team that was going to be " just as good maybe even better " , than last year , to hope for the second ( hokey ) wild card is an embarrassment. The best team , best manager , highest payroll. Maybe we can squeak into the second wild card ? Pathetic . Since when is eight games behind in June an insurmountable challenge ? As I stated many times , there were management blunders in the off season and in spring training, but it is still very possible to turn things around . There is too much talent here to let it be wasted .

Fans can be as optimistic or pessimistic as they want.

I think at this point it's realistic to have some doubts we're going to surge past both the Yankees and the Rays.

[dgalehouse]

The luxury tax is something the owners wanted in lieu of a salary cap . They bargained to get it . They created it . Now , they are afraid of it . Like Dr . Frankenstein's monster . What a joke .

[notin]

They are. Clearly, the top 10 has the highest hit rate. The next 10 has a good hit rate. Beyond 21, it's a crap shoot.

The hit rate is marginally better. But then from 2005 to 2014 (randomly chosen 10 year stretch long enough ago to mean something), the only player drafted at 16 to eclipse 4.0 fWAR in his career was Brett Lowrie. (Lucas Giolito and Jeremy Jeffress might one day.)

26 has no one close, in fact the only players in that timeframe drafted at 26 with positive fWAR are Michael Chavis and Blake Swihart (both drafted by Boston).

However, there were a lot of good players on the board every year at 26. If for example, we randomly chose drafting 32, both Jose Berrios and Aaron Judge would be better picks.

I don’t think the Sox are going to consider the draft at all when deciding what to do inJuly. They will consider 2020 and beyond, but not the draft. Not like DD is such a great drafter anyway...

[Bellhorn04]

The luxury tax is something the owners wanted in lieu of a salary cap . They bargained to get it . They created it . Now , they are afraid of it . Like Dr . Frankenstein's monster . What a joke .

The owners are not all in the same boat. There's a large gap between the rich teams and the poor teams. The cap is only an issue for the rich teams, like us.

We're lucky that our owner is willing to pay some tax.

[mvp 78]

The other owners can easily afford a higher payroll. It's time to stop giving these "small market franchises" so much of a helping hand.