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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

  1. #7201
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    ????

    No. If this team has taught us anything about spending, it’s that high priced free agency is a real waste.
    It's been hit and miss. No rings without Manny, Papi, Victorino, Napoli, Foulke, Damon, Price or JD

  2. #7202
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's been hit and miss. No rings without Manny, Papi, Victorino, Napoli, Foulke, Damon, Price or JD

    And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...

  3. #7203
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...
    And the thing about crapshoots is that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. In this case "we" are gambling with JH's money and the reward for winning far outstrips the risk of losing.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  4. #7204
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Agree.
    FA works if your developing your Minors, so they can take over at a position, after the FA contract is done. This way it starts bringing down the cost. Otherwise you just keep staying in the same circle of buying talent.
    FA should be a stop gap, until your Minor Leaguers can take over the position your paying be big bucks for.
    This is what Bill James said 30 years ago, that the way to build a team is through the minors, then using Free Agents to fill gaps when minor league players don't progress as the FO has hoped/predicted.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  5. #7205
    There are always going to be some cases where a low budget team is a winner or a big budget team flops . But those are the exceptions. There is a very clear and obvious correlation between payroll and winning.

  6. #7206
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    There are always going to be some cases where a low budget team is a winner or a big budget team flops . But those are the exceptions. There is a very clear and obvious correlation between payroll and winning.

    But there is a distinction between payroll and spending.

    Paying/extending your current players through their peak years = good.

    Spending for post-30yo free agents for big contracts long term = bad

    Free agency for the Red Sox (and most teams) typically has been a case of short term gains, and sometimes coupled with long term commitments. Manny Ramirez remains the outlier case where the team spent heavily on a player and he was productive for the life of the deal...

  7. #7207
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    ????

    No. If this team has taught us anything about spending, it’s that high priced free agency is a real waste.
    Not really. The team has won 4 titles in 15 years and high priced free agents have played major roles in all them. (A lot of dead money has resulted too, no one can deny that.)

    The team owners have been raking it in in spite of that dead money.

    Championships + profits + market appreciation. I don't see how you can argue with the results.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  8. #7208
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...
    Exactly. The list of failures is about as long as the successes:

    Offerman, Lugo, Dice-K, the Penny/Smoltz combo, Crawford, Masterson, the 2nd Napoli signing, Pablo, HRam.

    Some might say JD Drew, Dempster, Jenks ($6M), and some even called the Price signing a disaster.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  9. #7209
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    But there is a distinction between payroll and spending.

    Paying/extending your current players through their peak years = good.

    Spending for post-30yo free agents for big contracts long term = bad

    Free agency for the Red Sox (and most teams) typically has been a case of short term gains, and sometimes coupled with long term commitments. Manny Ramirez remains the outlier case where the team spent heavily on a player and he was productive for the life of the deal...
    Yes, and although his last 2 years of the deal were spent in LA, we had Jay Bay in his place via the trade.

    (BTW, we got Workman as comp for losing JBay.)
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  10. #7210
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Every team in baseball has a process that's hit and miss. That should be kind of obvious. No team has had anything resembling a dynasty this century.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  11. #7211
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    If you pick on the team's current record it doesn't look like spending correlates to winning. But it's a franchise that has generally had a lot of success with high priced talent since Henry bought the team.
    There is no correlation between spending and single year success.

    However, there is some correlation between spending and sustained success.

  12. #7212
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    There is no correlation between spending and single year success.

    However, there is some correlation between spending and sustained success.
    Which is basically what I'm saying.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #7213
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Agree.
    FA works if your developing your Minors, so they can take over at a position, after the FA contract is done. This way it starts bringing down the cost. Otherwise you just keep staying in the same circle of buying talent.
    FA should be a stop gap, until your Minor Leaguers can take over the position your paying be big bucks for.
    By the time a you get the majority of FA's now, after arbitration, they have very few good years left in them. Usually very close to 30 years old.
    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    This is what Bill James said 30 years ago, that the way to build a team is through the minors, then using Free Agents to fill gaps when minor league players don't progress as the FO has hoped/predicted.
    Amen.

  14. #7214
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Which is basically what I'm saying.
    Yes, I was supporting you.

  15. #7215
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Which is basically what I'm saying.
    Although I don't think that spending boatloads of money on free agents year in and year out is the way to build a strong franchise, unless the owner wants to eat a lot of money, which Henry has shown the willingness to do.

    But there comes a point when the spending has to be limited. We're feeling that this year and we will feel it over the next couple of years.

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