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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

  1. #481
    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    Biases of one sort or another are a part of the human condition. When it comes to the Red Sox , fans do have their favorites and their not so favorites. There can be various reasons for it , maybe some are actually subconscious. Who knows ? But it is a reality. Not trying to fault anyone here , just pointing out what seems fairly obvious.
    Closers tend to fall out of favor with fans when they become 'heart attack' closers. The same thing happened with Papelbon.

  2. #482
    Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

    https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-so...n-be-replaced/

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I think Henry gives away Ferrariís as tips to valet attendants. But that has nothing to do with how much money he is willing to spend on the Red Sox, whether or not he plans to stick to CBA payroll limits, and how much he likes paying luxury tax. Ever met a wealthy person who liked paying taxes?

    He is already paying Dombrowski for his expertise in building baseball teams. As it doesnít require an expert to throw large sums of money at every big name player, it is possible he has different expectations from DD than some of us do...
    I think that the amount of money that JH has will be an absolute direct factor in how much he is willing to spend. The amount he has has everything to do with how much is willing to spend. He knows what comes in and what goes out. It is a fun exercise for us to try and project how much he is willing to spend isn't it. He will pay more in taxes than most but he won't if he doesn't feel that the return on his money will more than replace what is going out. With respect to paying taxes, quite honestly I know no one who looks forward to paying them whether they are rich or poor.

  4. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well, the two could very easily be closely related. They all fall under the same payroll.

    In fact, Iíd say looking at a potential Kimbrel contract without keeping future considerations in mind is the very definition of short-sighted.

    As fans, we have the luxury of just wanting whatever it takes in 2019 and worrying about everything after as it gets here. But Dombrowski doesnít. Itís his job to be mindful of future impact. And as heís been doing it for a long time, we can only asssume he knows this and will do his best to act accordingly...
    I am pretty confident that Sox management knows what they are doing here. I don't think they will do anything now that negatively impacts their plan for the future.

  5. #485
    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    Biases of one sort or another are a part of the human condition. When it comes to the Red Sox , fans do have their favorites and their not so favorites. There can be various reasons for it , maybe some are actually subconscious. Who knows ? But it is a reality. Not trying to fault anyone here , just pointing out what seems fairly obvious.
    Just to add to that : It is okay for us fans to have our favorites and our not so favorites , but it is not okay for management. A successful management needs to be as objective as humanly possible.

  6. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

    https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-so...n-be-replaced/
    That's the way it is with some of these analytical metric " geniuses " ; they start thinking they know it all. So much smarter than those who actually play the game.
    Last edited by dgalehouse; 11-08-2018 at 04:54 PM.

  7. #487
    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    I think that the amount of money that JH has will be an absolute direct factor in how much he is willing to spend. The amount he has has everything to do with how much is willing to spend. He knows what comes in and what goes out. It is a fun exercise for us to try and project how much he is willing to spend isn't it. He will pay more in taxes than most but he won't if he doesn't feel that the return on his money will more than replace what is going out. With respect to paying taxes, quite honestly I know no one who looks forward to paying them whether they are rich or poor.
    John Henry has been great about spending whatever it takes to win. But there is always limit to it. The problem with having a really great team is that you simply cannot afford to keep them all.

  8. #488
    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    It seems to me that , whatever value you may or may not put on a closer , Craig Kimbrel has never really been a favorite of some posters. Some did not want him here , think we gave up too much to get him and want him gone now. And that's okay. We all want to win and we all have our opinions on how to do it.But here is a fact : Kimbrel is a seven time all star and boasts a career ERA of 1.90 . It is not easy to fill those shoes. Not an opinion, simply a fact. As far as his age is concerned, he is the same age as Chapman. The same age as Joe Kelly . Brazier is a year older. Guys like Adam Ottavino and Andrew Miller are three years older. I can certainly understand not wanting to give Kimbrel a big money , long term contract . Exactly what the team's spending limitations are is really not known to us , but I would agree you don't want to go overboard on a closer. One thing though; you better have somebody who you can reliably count on to close the show.
    I don't think that's an accurate interpretation of what posters are saying about Kimbrel. I love Kimbrel. I want him here and I'd like to keep him as our closer for next year. I have never liked what we gave up for him. If we do re-sign him, I am pretty sure I'm not going to like the contract. At the same time, I'll continue to be happy to have him on my team.

  9. #489
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

    https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-so...n-be-replaced/
    Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

    Which is spot on.

  10. #490
    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    the Boston Red Sox win the 2018 World Series if FILL IN THE BLANK is the Closer the entire year.
    You can literally put in any RP name in the Blank and we still have a parade.
    that is how dominate we were this year.
    in fact....i would say that we won the World Series IN SPITE of Craig Kimbrel. i could have pitched his stat line this postseason.
    Craig Kimbrel is completely overrated for the 2018 season. thanks for the 3 years pal - good luck at your next stop and with your next contract. i want zero to do with it or you.
    This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.

  11. #491
    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    That's the way it is with some of these analytical metric " geniuses " ; they start thinking they know it all. So much smarter than those who actually play the game.
    Well, in most cases this is the truth.

  12. #492
    Quote Originally Posted by redsoxrules View Post
    This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.
    My belief has always been that there are far better ways to spend your resources than on a closer, or bullpen in general. I'm not saying that building a strong pen isn't important, just that it can be done relatively cheaply. There is a reason why replacement level for relievers is so low.

  13. #493
    Quote Originally Posted by redsoxrules View Post
    This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.
    It is easy to say that now. The Sox were able to pull away down the stretch and win the division with something to spare. But it was a close race with the Yankees most of the season. Kimbrel had 42 saves , while most of the bullpen had their ups and downs. I do agree that giving Kimbrel a huge 5 year contract would not be smart. But thinking you can win with just any jabroni closing games is not smart either.

  14. #494
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

    Which is spot on.
    Well , certainly no player is worth a ludicrous contract. But there is no consensus on just how much is considered ludicrous. There is a free market out there. People like Bill James don't consider the business side of it. They are just looking at player performance and how it shows up in things like WAR. But they forget that having a winning and exciting team results in much higher attendance, TV ratings , advertising money , concession sales , merchandise revenue, fan interest,public relations and so forth. These things are important. The perennial low budget teams lose out on all of this. They become reduced to being pretty much welfare cases. Wards of MLB. Content to lose , rebuild , lose , look at the empty seats and take the revenue sharing and luxury tax money. The kicker is that their owners are every bit as wealthy as the others.

  15. #495
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

    Which is spot on.
    He expressed his point in a pretty over-the-top way. 'The players are NOT the game, any more than the beer vendors are.'

    He deleted the tweets and the Red Sox quickly distanced themselves from the opinions.

    Not very smart IMHO

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