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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

  1. #3751
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    No. We’re talking about Moe Lester. Keep up!!
    It's late - i'm stumbling - got confused Do you mean Noless Nomore?

  2. #3752
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitch View Post
    They might not be there this year, but the Padres are looking pretty damn good for the future.
    you might be right but I am certainly glad that I don't have to watch his antics 18 or so times this season. Good luck to the Padres. California could use some good news.

  3. #3753
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    So, I guess no reset.

    We can all chip in $100.

  4. #3754
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    2020
    Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.
    Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

    33 Sale
    31 Price
    ~28M Betts (last arb)
    ~23M Bogey (re-sign)
    22 JDM
    17 Eovaldi
    14 Pedey

    $168M in 7 players

    ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)
    ~4 Beni (1st of 3)
    ~3 Barnes (2 of 3)
    ~2 Hembree (2 of 3)
    ~2 Wright (3rd of 3)
    ~2 Leon (4th of 4)
    ~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

    add $22M
    add $15M player benefits

    $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

    The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

    Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

    It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

    The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.
    Last edited by moonslav59; 02-19-2019 at 09:41 PM.

  5. #3755
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    2020
    Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.
    Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

    33 Sale
    31 Price
    ~28M Betts (last arb)
    ~23M Bogey (re-sign)
    22 JDM
    17 Eovaldi
    14 Pedey

    $168M in 7 players

    ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)
    ~4 Beni (1st of 3)
    ~3 Barnes (2 of 3)
    ~2 Hembree (2 of 3)
    ~2 Wright (3rd of 3)
    ~2 Leon (4th of 4)
    ~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

    add $22M
    add $15M player benefits

    $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

    The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

    Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

    It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

    The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.
    I just don't think team will FORCE a reset. Key is staying below $20M above the limit. $228M CBP will cost $238M. I think Henry can live with that.

  6. #3756
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    2020
    Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.
    Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

    33 Sale
    31 Price
    ~28M Betts (last arb)
    ~23M Bogey (re-sign)
    22 JDM
    17 Eovaldi
    14 Pedey

    $168M in 7 players

    ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)
    ~4 Beni (1st of 3)
    ~3 Barnes (2 of 3)
    ~2 Hembree (2 of 3)
    ~2 Wright (3rd of 3)
    ~2 Leon (4th of 4)
    ~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

    add $22M
    add $15M player benefits

    $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

    The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

    Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

    It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

    The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.
    1.) that is a lot of cheese for sale. The Sox do know that his shoulder is held together with duct tape and chewing gum, right?

    2.) why is bogey being resigned?

  7. #3757
    You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon

  8. #3758
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    It looks like the Sox have about $114mill set for 2020, assuming JD opts out and not including raises for Betts, Bradley and Benintendi (but it does include their current salaries).

    That would give them about $76mill to replace Sale, JD, and Bogaerts and someone for 1b (Chavis/Ockimey/Travis?). And there is no guarantee JD opts out, because at age 32, will he be able to top the remaining 3years/$63mill he has left? There is no really good comp on the market with the closest being AJ Pollock, who did not even come close to that AAV.

    So if JD stays, the Sox have $54mill to give raises and replace Sale and Bogaerts. Resetting is possible if the Sox can replace Bogaerts internally with CJ Chatham, assuming Chatham doesn’t suck.

    But if it isn’t possible, I’m not so sure Henry is going to lose any sleep...

  9. #3759
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    It's time to dig up some of jacko's posts from the 2018-2019 Yankees Rumors thread to see what he said about a few things.


    In terms of the two starters we will need, I thought we’d go lefty-lefty before the playoffs. Instead, I think Eovaldi is the guy to get again. Without the cutter, Eo was a Juggs machine half the time and dominant the other. With the cutter, he’s untouchable and he dominated when the chips were down. Time to get him again. I think he will get a big AAV, but likely a shorter guarantee with his injury history. I can see a 4 year $75 mil deal for Eo

    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  10. #3760
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    1.) that is a lot of cheese for sale. The Sox do know that his shoulder is held together with duct tape and chewing gum, right?

    2.) why is bogey being resigned?
    This wasn't my plan. I was trying to show, if there was any way to keep Sale, Bogey and Betts AND reset the tax.

    The answer was no, so yes, Bogey goes and maybe JBJ, too.

  11. #3761
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I just don't think team will FORCE a reset. Key is staying below $20M above the limit. $228M CBP will cost $238M. I think Henry can live with that.
    I disagree. I think a reset has to happen after 2019 or 2020, and I feel strongly it will be after this year.

  12. #3762
    You have to factor in raises for every arb eligible player, including JBJ, Betts, ERod, Barnes, Beni etc. if Barnes does well as your closer, he’ll be a very expensive 2nd year arb guy as saves, for some reason, are very important in arb determinations.

  13. #3763
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon
    Losing Porcello and Bogey next year, resetting the tax after this year and going back to spending large in 2021 will not make Betts bolt.

  14. #3764
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    You have to factor in raises for every arb eligible player, including JBJ, Betts, ERod, Barnes, Beni etc. if Barnes does well as your closer, he’ll be a very expensive 2nd year arb guy as saves, for some reason, are very important in arb determinations.
    Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

  15. #3765
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

    Heck, Barnes might not even close. Obviously only Alex Cora’s opinion matters, but most in the media think Ryan Brasier is the front runner for the job.

    Brasier is not arb-eligible next year. And as odd as it seems to say, not being arb-eligible might give him an edge for the closer role...

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