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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

  1. #7231
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    Actually they are with Sandoval. And now compounded with Pedroia. With that money we might have signed a second baseman and a closer. It is a crap shoot to hire FA's for long and expensive contracts. The guys who get it right more often than not will put their teams in a winning position.
    Completely agree. It also goes without saying that John Henry has utterly failed to put the Sox in a winning position. Forgot that 86 year stretch. Itís todays Sox fans who have every reason to miserable. When oh when will the Sox FO office put together a good team?

  2. #7232
    MVP vegasbob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    You are correct, but we still spent a lot.

    Our 2012 budget broke our previous record by over $7M and was $12M more than 2011. Yes, we dipped into the mid $250's in 2013 and 2014, but even those numbers dwarfed 2007 ($143M) and 2004 ($127M). Amazingly, we were at $99.9M in 2003.

    2015 broke the 2012 record by $9M when we spent $184.3M. That's almost double our 2003 budget and $40M higher than 2007 and $57M more than 2004. Yes, salaries inflated those years, but not by that much.

    This does not refute your claim, however. We did spend more but not on "elite," big-priced free agents, but rather several mid-ranged ones. One coudl argue we bombed out on most of those, too. Even the Victorino and Napoli deal only looked good for 1 year.

    A look back at the signings those years:

    before 2012: Cody Ross, Aaron Cook (Traded for Melancon, Bailey & Mortenson)

    before 2013: Kojo Uehara, S Victorino, Mike Napoli & Jonny Gomes (Cash for M Carp)

    before 2014: Pierzynski, Mujica, Napoli (again) & Sizemore

    before 2015: Pablo & HRam (not elite- but close to elite contracts) Traded Cespedes for Porcello and signed Masterson, too.
    Between 4 to 8 seasons further on, only Porcello still dealing for the Sox. The only dead money left is Pablo for another 3.5 months, to be replaced at lesser cost by Pedroia next few contract years. Risks for future dead money may include Eovaldi and Sale if arms/shoulders go bad. JBJr's final arb year negotiation will be interesting to see if the Sox value him at $9MM or more. Also at question would be a QO for Porcello, if extension never materializes.

  3. #7233
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Exactly. And if they spent that money on a 2b and 1b, at some point those players are likely to become dead weight contracts as well. Pedroia, for example, was a very productive 2b on his contract for a long time...
    We did spend money and resources on second base, despite still having Pedey's contract on the books:

    $11M on Nunez
    $3.6M on Holt
    Traded Buttrey for Kinsler
    Brought up Chavis, maybe earlier than planned

    We did spend money at 1B, too, just not all in one basket:

    $18.5M on Moreland (2 contracts)
    $6.25M on Pearce

    While that only comes to just over $8M a year over the last 3 years, we are spending almost $13M this year.



    Last edited by moonslav59; 06-15-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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  4. #7234
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vegasbob View Post
    Between 4 to 8 seasons further on, only Porcello still dealing for the Sox. The only dead money left is Pablo for another 3.5 months, to be replaced at lesser cost by Pedroia next few contract years. Risks for future dead money may include Eovaldi and Sale if arms/shoulders go bad. JBJr's final arb year negotiation will be interesting to see if the Sox value him at $9MM or more. Also at question would be a QO for Porcello, if extension never materializes.
    I'm not complaining.

    I'd offer Porcello a QO, but I hope it doesn't turn him into the next Keuchel. Maybe he'll take the QO our of that fear.
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  5. #7235
    1,6,5,3,5,3,3,2,2,4,2,2,2,2,2,5,2,3,7, Sox end of year 40 man payroll rank 2019-2000. We're lucky to have the ownership that we have. No chance of reset. I don't regret Moreland/Pearce signings. 2019 season is not over. If it doesn't work out, we owe nothing for next year.

  6. #7236
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm not complaining.

    I'd offer Porcello a QO, but I hope it doesn't turn him into the next Keuchel. Maybe he'll take the QO our of that fear.
    I'd give Rick 2-3 year deal at slight hometown discount.

    That will lock down our starting rotation for 2/3 more years.

  7. #7237
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    No, long term free agent deals to players 30 and over piss me off. Is that difficult to grasp?

    How many players like that were on the 2004 team?
    Hell, they infuriate me. I donít even like long, lucrative ones for guys like Bryce Harper. I even hate when sports writers and commentators applaud those contracts as good investments. I was even against keeping Ellsbury and Kimbrel.

    All that said, I find it hard to complain about anything in the John Henry eraóeven the not smart contracts.

  8. #7238
    Would it be smart to leave behind 3 starting pitchers in States and not travel with the team when we play the Yankees in London? They would get 6 days off at home. They can come in and get some throwing in.
    Last edited by Nick; 06-15-2019 at 03:47 PM.

  9. #7239
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Would it be smart to leave behind 3 starting pitchers in States and not travel with the team when we play the Yankees in London? They would get 6 days off at home. They can come in and get some throwing in.
    I'd maybe leave 2.
    Sox 4 Ever

  10. #7240
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Leading AL WAR since May 20th:

    1.7 Trout
    1.4 Kepler
    1.3 Bogey
    1.3 JBJ

    1.2 Lindor
    1.1 C Santana
    1.1 Bregman
    1.0 Devers

    1.8 LLynn
    1.8 Giolito
    1.3 Morton
    1.3 Odorizzi
    1.2 Sale
    1.2 Verlander
    0.9 Boyd & Minor
    0.8 Price & Chirinos
    0.7 Porcello


    3 of top 8 on offense.

    3 of top 11pitchers
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #7241
    Our Record since May 20th is 14-12. I would think with all these WAR guys it would be better. Astros record is 17-7 since May 20th, with 2 WAR guys.
    Last edited by OH FOY!; 06-16-2019 at 09:06 AM.

  12. #7242
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Our Record since May 20th is 14-12. I would think with all these WAR guys it would be better. Astros record is 17-7 since May 20th, with 2 WAR guys.
    We've had a few players struggling since 5/20. I'm hopeful we've turned things around for the good and for good.
    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #7243
    We better save some money for a starter in case Eovaldi doesn't come back.

    Having Johnson as our best #5 at this point is joke.

  14. #7244
    Running JSmith out to close says it all

    Plenty of prospects to make a move unless DD is pulling an Ainge

    Davis to LA, thanks Danny you haven’t made a bad move yet!

    Kimbrel to Cubs for 3 years 40 mill says he was never done or past his prime

    Cash strapped is a beautiful predicament to be in, thanks Ben, Tom, Larry and john

  15. #7245
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    Is 2B still an area of need?

    Even if it is, can we afford to spend limited resources on 2B over the pen and rotation?

    Here's a look at some recent, small sample sizes of players that can play 2B:

    1.077 Brock Holt in his last 12 games (not counting today's 0 PA and 1 BB)

    .951 Chavis in his last 9 games (not counting today's 2 for 5 game)

    .750 Marco Hernandez in the 8 games since being called up

    .654 Nunez in his last 16 games (not good but better than before)

    Sox 4 Ever

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