What would a Betts extension be?

[moonslav59]

ok moon thank God there is finally something that I can disagree with you over! If I could trade Mookie for Fisk, Lynn, and Burleson in their primes, I would do it and never once look back. We are talking about 4 very special players here.

First time we very disagreed!



Going on the assumption we let Mookie walk and get just a comp pick for him, It would feel worse than losing Fisk, Lynn and Burleson combined.

We got nothing for Fisk, who went on to have a great career with the CWS, but his best years were with us. We ended up getting Frank Tanana and Joe Rudi for Lynn, and while that was not a good trade, we did get some quality in return. We got Carney Lansford & Mark Clear for Burleson & Hobson and later got Tony Armas for Lansford.

My point was meant as hyperbole, but I don't think it was that far from being accurate.

[dgalehouse]

Mookie is either the best or second best player in the game . On the road to Cooperstown. Absolutely the kind of guy you want to have spend his whole career in Boston. However , you can't get crazy either. It makes no sense to have Mookie if you then can't afford to surround him with a first rate supporting cast. It takes a lot of different pieces to make a championship team.

[moonslav59]

Mookie is either the best or second best player in the game . On the road to Cooperstown. Absolutely the kind of guy you want to have spend his whole career in Boston. However , you can't get crazy either. It makes no sense to have Mookie if you then can't afford to surround him with a first rate supporting cast. It takes a lot of different pieces to make a championship team.

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts.

Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out.

If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022.

I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

[Northern Star]

Kimmi and dgalehouse are the voices of reason here. There's a point at which it gets stupid - and irresponsible - to hand out the kind of longterm commitment and amount of money that jacko is suggesting. I think we've hit a dangerous plateau with contracts going over $300mil for 7 or 10 years. Like Kimmi said, the team is taking on all of the risk, and getting value in terms of production for maybe half of it if they are lucky.

Knowing how likely it is for players to decline into their middle/late thirties, it's insanity to lock them up for that long. I'd rather trade Betts for what we can get in his last pre-FA year than break the bank and shackle the franchise to such a ridiculous degree. No one player is bigger than the team. Ever.

[Nick]

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts.

Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out.

If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022.

I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

I liked your analysis of prioritizing current Sox players as they become FA.

I have as much fascination with Sale as I do with Betts. Here we have a player that clearly wants to be with Red Sox. I think he'll take an extension of say 6 year, $180M. I simply love his competitiveness on the mound. We gave up a lot for his three years of service, albeit team friendly contract.

I would love to keep Sale and JD Martinez and reset, if that's possible.

In reality, we have only 4 contracts for 2020. Price ($31M), Eovaldi ($17M), Pedroia ($13.75M) and Vaz ($4.52M) for total of $66.27M. 3 major arbitration players are Betts (say $22M), JBJ (say $11M) and E Rod ($8.50M). That brings total to 7 players at $108M. Add Sale at $30M and JD at $25M (front loaded) and now we have $163M committed to 9 players. Throw in $15M for benefits, with a luxury tax line of $208M, we have $30M to cover the cost of 31 roster players.

Gone are Xander, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Holt.

You'll have 15 players making league minimum of $550K. Say that's $8M. You now have $22M for Beni, Devers, Barnes, Brasier,.....basically 16 players for $22M, which is doable.

The team would still be competitive 2020.

SP Price, Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector
BP Brasier, Barnes, etc
C Vaz
1B Chavis
2B Pedroia
SS Lin
3B Devers
LF Beni
CF JBJ
RF Betts
DH Martinez

You can trade Vaz for cheaper option. Delta for Betts is $13M more to get to magic $35M, going from arbitration #3 to FA.

We can blow through the budget for 2021 at 20% penalty and 2022 at 30% penalty. At the conclusion of 2022, Price's $31M will come off the books along with Pedey's $13.75M, which will have come off year earlier.

Again, goal is to win the world series.

Build a team around Beni, Betts, Devers, JBJ and Martinez. Throw in Price, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Other teams have much less.

[Bellhorn04]

No one player is bigger than the team. Ever.

It's not really about a player being bigger than the team. It's about truly elite players who bring you success on and off the field. Players like Yaz and Pedro and Manny and Ortiz.

[Northern Star]

It's not really about a player being bigger than the team. It's about truly elite players who bring you success on and off the field. Players like Yaz and Pedro and Manny and Ortiz.

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

[moonslav59]

I liked your analysis of prioritizing current Sox players as they become FA.

I have as much fascination with Sale as I do with Betts. Here we have a player that clearly wants to be with Red Sox. I think he'll take an extension of say 6 year, $180M. I simply love his competitiveness on the mound. We gave up a lot for his three years of service, albeit team friendly contract.

I would love to keep Sale and JD Martinez and reset, if that's possible.

In reality, we have only 4 contracts for 2020. Price ($31M), Eovaldi ($17M), Pedroia ($13.75M) and Vaz ($4.52M) for total of $66.27M. 3 major arbitration players are Betts (say $22M), JBJ (say $11M) and E Rod ($8.50M). That brings total to 7 players at $108M. Add Sale at $30M and JD at $25M (front loaded) and now we have $163M committed to 9 players. Throw in $15M for benefits, with a luxury tax line of $208M, we have $30M to cover the cost of 31 roster players.

Gone are Xander, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Holt.

You'll have 15 players making league minimum of $550K. Say that's $8M. You now have $22M for Beni, Devers, Barnes, Brasier,.....basically 16 players for $22M, which is doable.

The team would still be competitive 2020.

SP Price, Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector
BP Brasier, Barnes, etc
C Vaz
1B Chavis
2B Pedroia
SS Lin
3B Devers
LF Beni
CF JBJ
RF Betts
DH Martinez

You can trade Vaz for cheaper option. Delta for Betts is $13M more to get to magic $35M, going from arbitration #3 to FA.

We can blow through the budget for 2021 at 20% penalty and 2022 at 30% penalty. At the conclusion of 2022, Price's $31M will come off the books along with Pedey's $13.75M, which will have come off year earlier.

Again, goal is to win the world series.

Build a team around Beni, Betts, Devers, JBJ and Martinez. Throw in Price, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Other teams have much less.

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest.

However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M.

2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ:
Barnes 2 of 3
Leon 4 of 4
Wright 3 of 3
Hembree 2 of 3
Workman 3 of 3
Swihart 2 of 4
Beni's1st arb

I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender.

Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

I don't think $400 mill is in the picture. But we have to see what Machado and Harper get.

[Nick]

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest.

However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M.

2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ:
Barnes 2 of 3
Leon 4 of 4
Wright 3 of 3
Hembree 2 of 3
Workman 3 of 3
Swihart 2 of 4
Beni's1st arb

I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender.

Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

I get that Moon. But how do we reset while keeping Sale, JD along with Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, as outlined above. I need to see the numbers from you. Show me how you would get to $208M less $15M in benefits. Are you willing to let Sale and JD go?

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the thing with Mookie. He has no real cheap seasons left. He’s gonna get $18 mil or so in 2019 and he’ll be mid $20 mil in 2020. It isn’t like they’re trading pre arbitration years where the guys make less than $1 mil. So I know it sounds like Mookie has to give up something, but he really doesn’t. If the Sox let Mookie hit the market, his price will be higher

[moonslav59]

Yes it is when you suggest throwing $400 mil at one guy when you need a roster of 25. However good that one player is, he doesn't field every position. Some people here are "do what it takes" because they're hopelessly in love with Betts. I'm saying if it hurts the team as a whole, no.

We won paying HRam, Pablo and Castillo over $50M.

It certainly is a big risk, and to me it's a close call, but I'd give Betts $360/12.

[moonslav59]

I get that Moon. But how do we reset while keeping Sale, JD along with Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, as outlined above. I need to see the numbers from you. Show me how you would get to $208M less $15M in benefits. Are you willing to let Sale and JD go?

You know I love Sale, and who doesn't love JD, but with Price on the books, I can't see how we keep all 4: Betts, Price, Sale & JD. If we do, then there can be no Porcello, Bogey, JBJ and anyone else making more than $10M a year, meaning we'd probably have to trade Eovaldi, Barnes, Wright maybe JBJ and Vaz and/or others. This is why I am a cliff dweller.

Trying to keep all 4 (Betts, Sale, JD and Price as we reset would likely mean seeing this team for 2020, and it begs the question- why keep all these 4, if we'd have no chance to win in 2020, and maybe even adding $40M+ to the 2021 budget might not be enough?

Lets try to keep Eovaldi, JBJ and Vaz...

31 Sale
31 Price
17 Eovaldo
9 ERod
4 Wright (Injured)
1 Johnson/Velazquez/Shwaryn

1 Brasier
1 Feltman
1 Lakins
1 Poyner
1 Walden
1 Brewer

1. Beni LF $4
2. Betts RF $24
3. Devers 3B $1
4. JD DH $24
5. JBJ CF $12
6. Chavis/Dalbec 1B $1
7. Pedey/Lin 2B $14
8. Chatham SS $1
9. Vaz C $4

4 bench guys $4M

$15M benefits

This is about $203M min. That leaves $5M to upgrade the pen, SS, 1B, 2B...

It's not happening.

[Kimmi]

I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.

Let me rephrase that. Mookie would be stupid to pass up Jacko's contract.

[Kimmi]

I get Kimmi's reticence on long-term megacontracts, and typically I agree, but right now Mookie is looking like that once-in-a-generation type of player worth biting the bullet and backing up the $$$ truck for.

Gun to my head, I'd probably offer him what Jacko proposed and hope for the best.

I get the sentiment for wanting to keep Mookie regardless of the cost. The first half of the contract will be great. Mookie might even end up being worth the contract overall because of his great play during the first part of the contract.

But when those albatross years hit...