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Thread: What would a Betts extension be?

  1. #1

    What would a Betts extension be?

    Cafardo is reporting that the Sox are trying to extend Betts this off-season and may offer him something he cannot refuse. Now, Betts has already made some serious money due to his first run through the arb process and he’s due an even bigger raise the second time through. So, consider that he’s staring at about $29 mil total as earnings for 2018 and 2019, it isn’t like he’s gonna have to jump at a contract to set his family up. If you look at arb projections, in all likelihood, Betts is gonna make something like $42 mil via arb in 2019-2020 total.

    Then one must look at length beyond that. Betts will be 26 for pretty much the entire 2019 season. As it stands, he’s due to hit FA as a newly turned 28 year old, meaning he’s going to be staring 10 year deals in the face. So the length for Betts to not test the market would probably need to be an insane 12 years to keep him from hitting the market.

    Now, let’s talk financials. The highest paid position player in 2019 was Mike Trout at $33.75 mil. That isn’t AAV, just take home. But there is the pesky contract situations for Machado and Harper that complicate things. Betts was better than both last year. As a matter of fact, Betts 2018 was better than anything Machado or Harper ever put up. (Betts 10.4 WAR, Harper 2015 9.3 WAR, Machado 2015 6.6). So he’s going to want to surpass them in FA money. Let’s say for arguments sake, Harper gets a $34 mil AAV in his deal.

    Then there’s opt outs. The Sox already have Betts for the next two based on arb rules. They won’t be terribly inclined to offer such a massive deal and have a three year opt out. Maybe they have a four year opt out, allowing the Sox to keep him until he turns 30 and have him seek a new contract then if he’s still posting HOF numbers. That being said, since Betts isn’t a FA, they don’t have to front load his deal since the arb contract will actually back load his earnings if he went year to year. So here’s my best guess as “an offer he couldn’t refuse”.

    12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such.
    2019- $20 mil
    2020- $25 mil
    2021-2030- $35 mil

    I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.
    Hal sucks

  2. #2
    "Just one more thing..." Northern Star's Avatar
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    Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

    I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.
    Priorities:
    1. Yankees lose
    2. Red Sox win

    Quote Originally Posted by joeycaps View Post
    So shut up because you have no idea on what you say on anything as evidence of some of your ridiculous posts.

  3. #3
    "Just one more thing..." Northern Star's Avatar
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    Priorities:
    1. Yankees lose
    2. Red Sox win

    Quote Originally Posted by joeycaps View Post
    So shut up because you have no idea on what you say on anything as evidence of some of your ridiculous posts.

  4. #4
    Fight the Hate Dojji's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Star View Post
    Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

    I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.
    Trading arb years for extra guaranteed years tends to bring the overall AAV of an extension down. The tradeoff for the player is they make the big money earlier
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  5. #5
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such.
    2019- $20 mil
    2020- $25 mil
    2021-2030- $35 mil

    I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.
    I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

    Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

    My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.

  6. #6
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Let's see what Machado and Harper get. That's going to set the bar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Let's see what Machado and Harper get. That's going to set the bar.
    I have a hunch that that is what Mookie is doing. My guess is that Mike Trout is quietly watching all of this unfold. He has the potential to set the bar higher than anyone else.

  8. #8
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    I get Kimmi's reticence on long-term megacontracts, and typically I agree, but right now Mookie is looking like that once-in-a-generation type of player worth biting the bullet and backing up the $$$ truck for.

    Gun to my head, I'd probably offer him what Jacko proposed and hope for the best.

  9. #9
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I would guess that Mookie would not be able to refuse that deal, but as a GM, there is no way in the world that I would offer that deal.

    Part of the team's reasoning for buying out some control years is to be able to get some free agent years at a cheaper rate. It should be a deal where both sides benefit. How are the Sox benefiting from that deal? They are taking all of the risk with no reward. Mookie is getting all of the reward with no risk.

    My final offer to Mookie would be an 8 year deal from now, meaning a 6 year extension, at $30 mil a year. Throw in a couple of opt outs if necessary. That, to me, is still breaking the bank on a player, but I'm also trying to be realistic.
    Big part of appeal about Betts is his athleticism to go along with his baseball skills.

    I seriously doubt in 7 years, he'll be making the same type of running catches nor running the bases with abandonment as he's doing now. His power will certainly decline. He is NOT going to repeat last year's performance year after year.

    I would agree Betts is worth $35M per year if he repeats last year's numbers for next ten years. I just don't think he can do it.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Star View Post
    Thank God you're not the Sox GM.

    I don't know why there's this apparent rush nowadays to lock up players to longterm deals when they're still arb eligible.

    1. To delay free agency and control the player for an additional year or two.
    2. The way arb deals are going, buying them out seems to make a lot of financial sense...

  11. #11
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Another strategy is to pay them more in their arb years than they'd normally make, so they get more money "now" or upfront and less in the last 2-3 years, which makes it easier to trade the player, if the need arises.

    Or, offer $31M x 12, which is $372/12, but if the money is invested well, more upfront money may make up the difference in total pay over 12 years.

    I'd give him an opt out after 5 or 6 years.

    The problem with extending him now is that his new AVV will hurt the 2019 ans 2020 budget more than his arb costs, but it would help lessen the AVV cost for the next 10 years.

  12. #12
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    I hate long term deals, but like the Price deal, I feel it is necessary.

    To compare a long term deal for Betts to others that have gone horribly wrong, like Pujols and Miggy is not really fair. Betts is much younger and is the heart and soul of our team.

    Letting Betts walk will be worse than letting Fisk, Lynn and Burleson go combined.

  13. #13
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    Mookie Betts is willing to play the gambling game and that is exactly what it is. He has to answer the question - How much is enough to take care of me and mine forever and ever? If the Red Sox make him an offer based on the current market expectations long term and he chooses to gamble that is up to him. It is a risk that he is taking. He could be one step away from an injury that could affect his ability to earn a living playing baseball as we move ahead. I believe that he gets every ounce out of himself that he can get. There is no reserve. I do not blindly believe that someone his size who plays the way he plays will last for the entire duration of whatever the contract he signs might be.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I hate long term deals, but like the Price deal, I feel it is necessary.

    To compare a long term deal for Betts to others that have gone horribly wrong, like Pujols and Miggy is not really fair. Betts is much younger and is the heart and soul of our team.

    Letting Betts walk will be worse than letting Fisk, Lynn and Burleson go combined.
    ok moon thank God there is finally something that I can disagree with you over! If I could trade Mookie for Fisk, Lynn, and Burleson in their primes, I would do it and never once look back. We are talking about 4 very special players here.

  15. #15
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    Mookie Betts is willing to play the gambling game and that is exactly what it is. He has to answer the question - How much is enough to take care of me and mine forever and ever? If the Red Sox make him an offer based on the current market expectations long term and he chooses to gamble that is up to him. It is a risk that he is taking. He could be one step away from an injury that could affect his ability to earn a living playing baseball as we move ahead. I believe that he gets every ounce out of himself that he can get. There is no reserve. I do not blindly believe that someone his size who plays the way he plays will last for the entire duration of whatever the contract he signs might be.
    Certainly, there is a big risk in any 12 year contract. Injury is the worst case scenario.It helps that Betts plays in a spacious RF half his games, and that he plays the OF not IF or catcher.

    Betts will be 26 next season and would be 37 in the final year of a 12 year contract. That means 7 of the 12 years would be during ages 26-32. Also, the 5 seasons at ages 33-37 are not severely post prime like many 8-10 year deals have been in the past.

    I get the concerns, and I'd be very worried over a 12 year deal, but I think Betts is the guy that would make it worth it, even if he missed some time for injuries.

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