Cafardo is reporting that the Sox are trying to extend Betts this off-season and may offer him something he cannot refuse. Now, Betts has already made some serious money due to his first run through the arb process and he’s due an even bigger raise the second time through. So, consider that he’s staring at about $29 mil total as earnings for 2018 and 2019, it isn’t like he’s gonna have to jump at a contract to set his family up. If you look at arb projections, in all likelihood, Betts is gonna make something like $42 mil via arb in 2019-2020 total.
Then one must look at length beyond that. Betts will be 26 for pretty much the entire 2019 season. As it stands, he’s due to hit FA as a newly turned 28 year old, meaning he’s going to be staring 10 year deals in the face. So the length for Betts to not test the market would probably need to be an insane 12 years to keep him from hitting the market.
Now, let’s talk financials. The highest paid position player in 2019 was Mike Trout at $33.75 mil. That isn’t AAV, just take home. But there is the pesky contract situations for Machado and Harper that complicate things. Betts was better than both last year. As a matter of fact, Betts 2018 was better than anything Machado or Harper ever put up. (Betts 10.4 WAR, Harper 2015 9.3 WAR, Machado 2015 6.6). So he’s going to want to surpass them in FA money. Let’s say for arguments sake, Harper gets a $34 mil AAV in his deal.
Then there’s opt outs. The Sox already have Betts for the next two based on arb rules. They won’t be terribly inclined to offer such a massive deal and have a three year opt out. Maybe they have a four year opt out, allowing the Sox to keep him until he turns 30 and have him seek a new contract then if he’s still posting HOF numbers. That being said, since Betts isn’t a FA, they don’t have to front load his deal since the arb contract will actually back load his earnings if he went year to year. So here’s my best guess as “an offer he couldn’t refuse”.
12 years. $395 mil. Opt out after 4. Payouts as such.
2019- $20 mil
2020- $25 mil
2021-2030- $35 mil
I think that’s an offer he cannot refuse.