19 bold predictions for MLB in 2019

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox will eventually end up going over the next penalty tier this year, whether it be in the offseason or midseason. The team is too good for them not to go that extra step that may push them over the top.

That is if the extra step is needed. We may end up being relatively healthy and productive as is. I'm mostly thinking about 2B.

But yeah, 2020 definitely feels like the reset year. Sooner or later, the money will catch up to you, no matter how rich a team you are. I am glad that Dombrowski has seemingly decided not to spend big on bullpen contracts.

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

[notin]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

[Bellhorn04]

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

My thoughts exactly.

[notin]

My thoughts exactly.

So then.... what’s keeping Dombrowski from signing a couple really good relievers?

Seriously. It’s January 13 and the biggest addition to the roster is still Colten Brewer...

[Bellhorn04]

So then.... what’s keeping Dombrowski from signing a couple really good relievers?

Seriously. It’s January 13 and the biggest addition to the roster is still Colten Brewer...

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox will eventually end up going over the next penalty tier this year, whether it be in the offseason or midseason. The team is too good for them not to go that extra step that may push them over the top.

That is if the extra step is needed. We may end up being relatively healthy and productive as is. I'm mostly thinking about 2B.

But yeah, 2020 definitely feels like the reset year. Sooner or later, the money will catch up to you, no matter how rich a team you are. I am glad that Dombrowski has seemingly decided not to spend big on bullpen contracts.

I agree that the $40M line in 2019 is less of a worry than the reset winter after 2019 or possibly after 2020.

[moonslav59]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

That's a possibility, at least for a year or two, but those 50%s add up over time. Resetting drops the rate for 2 years before getting back to 50% again.

While going $10M over in a 50% tax year costs $5M, going $20M over in a 20% year costs only $4M.

Losing Pablo's contract after 2019 makes next winter the likely reset year, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a possibility, at least for a year or two, but those 50%s add up over time. Resetting drops the rate for 2 years before getting back to 50% again.

While going $10M over in a 50% tax year costs $5M, going $20M over in a 20% year costs only $4M.

Sure, but going $20M over generally makes it that much harder to get back under, unless you're signing everyone to 1 year contracts, which ain't happening.

[Kimmi]

I'm not convinced there's going to be any tax reset at all. There might be a reduction in the payroll, certainly.

The reset idea presupposes that you're going to take advantage of the lower rate to jack up the payroll all over again the next year.

Maybe instead of that they reduce the payroll down to say 10 million over the first threshold. They would have to pay 50% tax on that, which is no big deal in the overall picture.

I don't know Bell. I personally think there will be a reset in either 2020 or 2021, which is what is holding us up in signing a reliever. Otherwise, as you mentioned, it wouldn't make much sense to re-sign Pearce. But Pearce having a one year contract doesn't affect reset goals for 2020.

We'll see. I can't imagine Henry be willing to continue to pay the higher tax penalties. Even the Yankees reset.

[Kimmi]

And the question becomes - does resetting make sense?

If the Sox cut payroll under $206mill and it impacts the product on the field to the point where Henry makes less revenue, then he may very well forego any reset...

We need to build our farm system back up. If we had a strong farm, we could put a quality product on the field and keep the payroll under $206 mil.

[Kimmi]

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

But why go cheap on the BP if we're not really concerned with resetting?

[notin]

Looks like we really are goin' cheap on the bullpen this year. How cheap remains to be seen.

But then as long as Kimbrel, Ottavino and Allen remain unsigned, there is still a possibility of spending...

[moonslav59]

Sure, but going $20M over generally makes it that much harder to get back under, unless you're signing everyone to 1 year contracts, which ain't happening.

We have a bunch of players that have contracts expiring every year. The idea is not to expressly have to reset every 3 years. As it turns out, we will be going over the max line 2 years in a row. I'm not sure that is in the plans again, but when looking at our future budgets, it certainly looks easier to reset every now and again while trying to not go $40M ever again.

Do we have to reset after 2019? No. Would not doind it after 2019 mean we have to after 2020, probably not, but it doesn't make sense to me, to stay at the 50% tax rate indefinitely, when dipping under every 3-5 years and maybe going $20-39M every now and again when you feal an extra push is needed is cheaper.

[notin]

I agree that the $40M line in 2019 is less of a worry than the reset winter after 2019 or possibly after 2020.

Which means one year contracts are fair game...

[moonslav59]

Which means one year contracts are fair game...

Exactly, except for Eovaldi, who they must gave viewed as a bargain and a projected plus for 4 years. He allows us to lose Porcello or Sale with a lesser big ouch.