So everyone and their mother has weighed in on this site about the sox need for fiscal frugality come 2019 so they can save money to keep the band together. I think everyone is looking at Barnes and Brasier and being somewhat happy (although probably not realistically so) about the end of the pen. But what isn't realized is the loss to the middle relief that must occur if the sox close games from within. Let's take a look at the sox' options for 2019 should they not sign an outside force.

Closer: Matt Barnes- 2018 stats- 65IP 14K/9IP 4.5BB/9IP 0.73HR/9IP 3.65ERA 2.71FIP

Matt Barnes was nasty last season. His K rate was a career high. His HR rate was a career low. Then why was his ERA and FIP so far off? Mostly because his BABIP was high. As a matter of fact, Barnes' BABIP is always high. His career BABIP is actually higher than the .321 he put up last year (by one point). For a guy who is so dominant to allow hits as often as he does when a ball is in play is strange. Couple that with his propensity for walks (1 every other inning) and you have a guy who underperforms based on FIP on an annual basis. You can definitely do worse than Barnes, but he puts a lot of guys on base and gives up a strange amount of hits when guys make contact. Not the best idea for closer on a championship team, but he's the best you got.

8th inning/primary set-up man- Ryan Brasier- 2018 stats- 33.2IP 7.8K/9IP 1.9BB/9IP 0.53HR/9IP 1.60ERA 2.83FIP

Brasier has the opposite effect of Barnes in terms of peripherals and outperforming FIP. Brasier outperformed his FIP was 1.2. He outperformed his xFIP by 2.18! Brasier has the velocity to be a back end guy for sure. But how often can he rely on a .198BABIP especially when guys put the ball in play as much as they do and his groundball rate is good but not great. Also, coming into 2018, he had been a 2.5-3.6 BB/9IP guy, which is good to ok. His BB rate of 1.87/9IP is absurd and likely not sustainable. You could do worse than Brasier in the setup role, but for a guy with his stuff, he cannot rely on keeping a sub .200BABIP forever.

7th inning/secondary set-up man- Heath Hembree- 2018 stats- 60IP 11.4K/9IP 4.1BB/9IP 1.50HR/9IP 4.20ERA 4.19FIP

Hembree is what he is. He has had consecutive 10+K/9IP seasons. He has also had consecutive 1.4+HR/9IP seasons and saw his walk rate really devolve in 2018. He lost almost 1mph from 2017 for some reason and now sits where he had the previous 2 seasons, in the 94 range. Not sure if that's the reason for his higher HR rate or walk rate, but so be it. Hembree is a JAG with a good K rate. His walk rate and propensity to give up homers is unsettling, especially when he projects to be your first reliever out of the pen if your starter goes 6 and departs with a lead

6th inning/tertiary setup man Brandon Workman- 2018 stats- 41.1IP 8.1K/9IP 3.5BB/9IP 1.3HR/9IP 3.27ERA 4.42FIP

Workman would slot into the last of the "set-up" men. He would probably be the first man up should a starter hand the lead over after 5 innings. He may also be the first man called upon if the starter hands over a small deficit. His ERA from 2018 was very strong, but he outperformed his peripherals by a lot and the HR predilection is alarming to say the least. He has had some serious health issues and saw his velocity drop back by a full mph this past season compared to 2017. He also faded heavily in September, registering a 6.48ERA, yet somehow won 4 games. Either way, he is not terrible, but with his HR rates, lower K rate and non-impeccable command, he is the kind of guy who can be a Firestarter in the pen

Primary Long Reliever- Hector Velazquez- 2018 stats- 85IP 5.6K/9IP 2.75BB/9IP 0.74HR/9IP 3.18ERA 4.15FIP

Velazquez is what he is. A guy who can give multiple innings without any flash or stuff. He throws strikes, but pitches to contact to the extreme. He outperformed his FIP by a lot as well, and probably cannot be expected to replicate his 2018 ERA numbers

That's 5 relievers. The sox will carry 7. Brian Johnson will likely be amongst them, but he sucked in 2018. The final spot will likely be a competition amongst some low ceiling relievers in the high minors. The fact remains, pulling Barnes and Brasier up to replace Kelly and Kimbrel really exposes the sox underbelly. And while the guys in the middle aren't entirely awful, they all have big HR rates, higher than expected hit rates and non-impeccable walk rates, meaning that they're gonna blow some leads.