Originally Posted by
jacksonianmarch
All the talk about extensions for the sox got me thinking about the Yanks and their lux tax scenario. Here is how it projects into 2020 and 2021
2019-
The Yankees are at $217 mil right now
2020-
Things change a bit. Gardner and Sabathia definitely move on. I am assuming Chapman doesn't opt out as Kimbrel's situation is a cautionary tale for any effective closer. Betances becomes a FA, and with his shoulder barking, he might end up moving on too. Didi also hits the market. Right now, the lux tax implications locked in for 2020 are $168 mil. That doesn't take into account arb, which starts getting pricey in 2020 and more so the years after. In 2020, Green, Judge, Montgomery, Paxton and Sanchez all hit arbitration. Sanchez, Green and Judge are first timers. There are other players hitting too, but guys like Bird and Cessa aren't going to be breaking the bank barring a remarkable turnaround. I'm assuming Judge follows a Betts pattern and goes for $10 mil. Paxton will be in his final year and should make upwards of $15 mil assuming good health. Sanchez is really going to depend on this year. Arb looks at the last 2 seasons and with Sanchez having an injury marred and awful 2018, he will need a huge 2019 to tip the scales. My guess is $3 mil or so for him. Green, assuming continued success, should see somewhere in the $3 mil range as well. Add in medicals at $15 mil and the other arb guys adding up to about $5 mil, the Yanks number would jump to $219 mil. It gives us a $29 mil buffer to add one big piece or multiple small ones.
2021-
This is probably the most interesting season, barring any major additions in the offseason. Happ (presumably), Lemahieu, Tanaka, and Ellsbury go off the books. Britton can opt out or in. Judge goes into arb year 2, which jumps him up to $20 mil. The rest, who knows. We will have a ton of flexibility, but Andujar and Torres start the arb process. We will have a pen that is expected to contain Green, Holder, Britton, Ottavino and Chapman. We should have a rotation headed by Severino and Montgomery. I assume we would try to extend Paxton. I would also assume any pitching addition from the year prior would carry over. Maybe, we would try to keep Tanaka. Pretty fluid process to this point